FNUS75 KBOU 020837 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR TIMBER CREEK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 223 AM MDT FRI OCT 2 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-44. MIN HUMIDITY........23-26%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 10-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2800 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 4600-5600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....19-22. MAX HUMIDITY........51-54%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 8-9 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9-20 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 200-800 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-52. MIN HUMIDITY........18-21%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 9-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-16 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN WEST 20-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL UNTIL 1100. 8600-9600 FT AGL AFTER 1300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. EXCELLENT AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR TIMBER CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/02-02 61 0 14 80 W 12 1 1098 W 21 23185 P 10/02-03 10 0 13 83 W 12 13 3 1 NW75 613 W 17 9428 P 10/02-04 10 0 13 86 W 12 1 522 W 17 7779 P 10/02-05 10 0 12 91 W 12 1 431 W 16 6131 P 10/02-06 10 0 12 84 W 13 13 3 1 W73 229 W 16 3100 P 10/02-07 10 0 13 79 W 13 1 965 W 18 17888 P 10/02-08 10 0 19 62 W 13 1 1702 W 20 32676 P 10/02-09 10 0 26 47 W 13 13 2 1 NW61 2438 W 22 47463 F 10/02-10 10 0 32 36 W 13 1 3451 W 24 76161 G 10/02-11 10 0 35 33 W 13 1 4464 W 26 104858 V 10/02-12 10 0 38 30 W 13 13 2 1 NW58 5476 W 28 133556 V 10/02-13 10 0 39 28 W 13 1 5501 W 28 131071 V 10/02-14 10 0 40 27 W 13 1 5526 W 26 128586 V 10/02-15 10 0 41 26 W 13 13 3 1 NW53 5551 W 26 126101 V 10/02-16 10 0 41 26 W 12 1 5365 W 24 113179 V 10/02-17 10 0 39 27 W 10 1 5179 W 22 100257 V 10/02-18 15 0 39 28 W 8 8 3 1 W45 4993 W 20 87334 G 10/02-19 15 0 35 32 W 6 1 3827 W 16 61926 G 10/02-20 15 0 32 36 W 5 1 2661 W 13 36518 P 10/02-21 15 0 30 38 SW 3 3 3 1 W37 1494 W 8 11110 P 10/02-22 15 0 29 40 SW 3 1 1103 W 8 8063 P 10/02-23 15 0 28 41 SW 3 1 712 SW 8 5017 P 10/03-00 15 0 26 44 S 5 5 2 1 W38 321 SW 7 1970 P 10/03-01 15 0 25 45 SW 5 1 292 SW 7 1863 P 10/03-02 15 0 24 46 SW 6 1 263 SW 8 1756 P 10/03-03 15 0 23 47 SW 6 6 2 1 W41 234 SW 8 1649 P 10/03-04 15 0 23 48 SW 5 1 222 SW 7 1411 P 10/03-05 15 0 22 47 SW 5 1 210 SW 6 1174 P 10/03-06 37 0 24 44 SW 3 3 2 1 W47 359 SW 6 1924 P 10/03-07 37 0 23 50 SW 2 1 357 SW 6 1939 P 10/03-08 37 0 23 53 SW 2 1 355 SW 7 1955 P 10/03-09 37 0 24 54 SW 3 3 2 1 W49 353 W 7 1970 P 10/03-10 37 0 28 46 SW 6 1 2475 W 13 50046 F 10/03-11 37 0 34 35 W 9 1 4597 W 18 98122 G 10/03-12 52 0 43 24 W 12 12 2 1 W47 6719 W 25 146198 V 10/03-13 52 0 49 20 W 13 1 7785 W 24 163272 E 10/03-14 52 0 51 19 W 13 1 8851 W 24 180345 E 10/03-15 52 0 51 19 W 12 12 2 1 W41 9917 W 23 197419 E 10/03-16 52 0 50 20 SW 9 1 9545 W 22 186129 E 10/03-17 52 0 50 20 SW 6 1 9173 SW 22 174839 E 10/03-18 70 13 49 21 S 3 3 2 1 SW40 8800 SW 22 163550 E 10/03-19 70 13 45 25 SW 2 1 7088 SW 18 123965 V 10/03-20 70 13 40 30 SW 3 1 5375 SW 16 84381 G 10/03-21 70 13 37 36 SW 3 3 2 1 SW51 3663 SW 14 44796 F 10/03-22 70 13 35 40 SW 2 1 2536 SW 12 30331 P 10/03-23 70 13 33 46 S 2 1 1409 S 8 15866 P 10/04-00 70 13 31 50 SE 3 3 2 1 SW54 282 S 6 1401 P 10/04-01 70 13 31 50 S 8 1 320 S 9 2914 P 10/04-02 70 13 30 53 SW 13 1 358 SW 14 4428 P 10/04-03 70 13 29 54 SW 15 24 2 1 SW47 396 SW 17 5941 P 10/04-04 70 13 29 55 SW 13 1 418 SW 15 5402 P 10/04-05 70 13 28 57 S 8 1 439 SW 13 4863 P 10/04-06 67 28 29 58 S 5 5 2 1 SW52 461 SW 10 4324 P 10/04-07 67 28 27 66 S 5 1 534 SW 12 5102 P 10/04-08 67 28 27 72 S 6 1 606 SW 12 5880 P 10/04-09 67 28 28 76 S 8 8 2 1 SW47 679 S 12 6658 P 10/04-10 67 28 32 69 S 10 1 2422 S 15 42369 F 10/04-11 67 28 38 56 S 13 1 4166 S 18 78079 G 10/04-12 82 40 47 42 S 14 22 2 1 SW44 5909 S 22 113789 V 10/04-13 82 40 52 35 S 14 1 6823 S 26 160610 E 10/04-14 82 40 54 33 S 12 1 7736 SW 30 207431 E 10/04-15 82 40 54 33 S 10 10 2 1 SW48 8650 SW 33 254251 E 10/04-16 82 40 53 34 S 8 1 8039 SW 33 232196 E 10/04-17 82 40 53 34 S 6 1 7429 SW 32 210141 E 10/04-18 80 40 52 36 S 3 3 2 1 SW53 6819 SW 32 188086 E 10/04-19 80 40 48 42 SE 3 1 5479 SW 26 139430 V 10/04-20 80 40 44 50 SE 3 1 4140 S 22 90775 G 10/04-21 80 40 40 57 SE 5 5 2 1 SW60 2800 S 17 42119 F 10/04-22 80 40 38 62 SE 5 1 2198 S 16 32155 P 10/04-23 80 40 36 66 S 5 1 1596 SW 15 22191 P 10/05-00 80 40 35 70 S 6 6 2 1 SW52 995 SW 14 12227 P 10/05-01 80 40 35 69 S 9 1 1300 SW 21 27272 P 10/05-02 80 40 34 72 SW 15 1 1605 SW 28 42317 F 10/05-03 80 40 33 73 SW 18 30 2 1 SW85 1910 SW 35 57362 F 10/05-04 80 40 33 74 SW 20 1 2230 SW 36 69101 G 10/05-05 80 40 33 75 SW 20 1 2549 SW 37 80839 G 10/05-06 72 24 33 75 SW 18 30 2 SW86 2869 SW 37 92578 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DOUG WATRY REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091002.TIMBE.01/BOU