FNUS75 KPUB 022159
FWSPUB

SPOT FORECAST FOR BLACK MOUNTAIN P2...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
359 PM MDT FRI OCT 2 2009

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE SITE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED.  MOST OF THE DAY...PREVAILING FREE AIR...10000 FOOT WINDS...
CLOSE TO RIDGE TOP LEVEL...WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH.
LATE IN THE DAY...FORECAST MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT A LOW LEVEL
PUSH OF AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST MAY IMPACT THE SITE WITH WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO POSSIBLY 20 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE SWITCHING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.  THE
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE RESULT OF SHALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS.  NOT SURE HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL
ACTUALLY BE BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH.  RHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
PROBABLY DROP A TAD BIT LOWER THAN THEY WERE TODAY.  THE AIRMASS
WILL BE WARMING WITH NO ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE...WHICH
EQUATES TO LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-33F.
MAX HUMIDITY........25-35 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 3-5 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WIND......WEST AROUND 7 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-62F.
MIN HUMIDITY........5-10 PERCENT.
20 FOOT WIND........WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH...SHIFTING SOUTH
                    TO SOUTHEAST AT 10-20 MPH 1500-1600.
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 500 FEET AGL UNTIL 1000. 7500 FT AGL
                    AFTER 1100.
TRANSPORT WIND......SOUTHWEST AROUND 13 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1200.
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
LAL.................1.

$$
FORECASTER...WALROD
REQUESTED BY...PIDC
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20091002.BLACK.02/PUB