FNUS75 KBOU 031019 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR TIMBER CREEK...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 419 AM MDT SAT OCT 3 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN TONIGHT AND SLIDE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR MOISTURE AND GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY. SMOKE DISPERSION WILL VERY GOOD OR BETTER TODAY AND SUNDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53. MIN HUMIDITY........17-23%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 2-6 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN WEST 4-9 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL UNTIL 1100. 8600-9400 FT AGL AFTER 1400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. VERY GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW AFTER 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....29-34. MAX HUMIDITY........55-65%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-5 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTH 4-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7000-8000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 1400-1800 FT AGL AFTER 0400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SUNDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-54. MIN HUMIDITY........32-38%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE UP TO 5 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN SOUTH 11-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9-20 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 24-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3200 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 7400-8400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1300...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR TIMBER CREEK. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/03-04 26 0 24 46 S 3 1 268 SW 6 1365 P 10/03-05 26 0 23 46 SW 3 1 301 SW 7 1733 P 10/03-06 41 0 23 46 SW 3 3 2 1 W54 333 SW 7 2102 P 10/03-07 41 0 22 55 SW 3 1 334 SW 7 2122 P 10/03-08 41 0 22 61 SW 5 1 334 SW 7 2142 P 10/03-09 41 0 23 65 SW 6 6 2 1 W48 335 W 7 2161 P 10/03-10 41 0 27 56 SW 7 1 2464 W 13 47688 F 10/03-11 41 0 34 43 W 8 1 4593 W 18 93214 G 10/03-12 51 6 42 30 W 9 9 2 1 W47 6722 W 24 138741 V 10/03-13 51 6 48 26 W 9 1 7639 W 22 142615 V 10/03-14 51 6 49 24 W 9 1 8556 W 20 146490 V 10/03-15 51 6 50 24 W 9 9 2 1 W39 9473 W 18 150365 E 10/03-16 51 6 49 26 W 8 1 9047 W 18 142060 V 10/03-17 51 6 49 27 SW 8 1 8622 SW 17 133756 V 10/03-18 71 13 47 28 SW 7 7 2 1 SW33 8196 SW 17 125451 V 10/03-19 71 13 44 32 S 7 1 6771 SW 15 93945 G 10/03-20 71 13 40 39 SE 7 1 5345 S 12 62438 G 10/03-21 71 13 37 44 SE 7 7 2 1 SW43 3919 S 9 30931 P 10/03-22 71 13 35 48 SE 6 1 3385 S 10 29270 P 10/03-23 71 13 33 52 SE 5 1 2851 S 12 27609 P 10/04-00 76 13 33 53 SE 5 5 2 1 SW41 2317 S 13 25947 P 10/04-01 76 13 33 54 SE 6 1 2271 S 14 28262 P 10/04-02 76 13 31 56 S 8 1 2226 S 16 30577 P 10/04-03 76 13 31 56 SW 9 9 2 1 SW43 2180 SW 17 32892 P 10/04-04 76 13 30 57 SW 9 1 1797 SW 15 24824 P 10/04-05 76 13 30 57 S 8 1 1413 S 13 16756 P 10/04-06 72 43 30 58 S 6 6 2 2 SW47 1030 S 9 8688 P 10/04-07 72 43 31 57 S 5 2 1961 SW 13 24463 P 10/04-08 72 43 34 55 S 5 2 2892 SW 15 40238 F 10/04-09 72 43 37 52 S 6 6 2 2 SW39 3822 SW 17 56013 F 10/04-10 72 43 41 48 S 9 2 4800 SW 18 82617 G 10/04-11 72 43 45 43 S 13 2 5778 SW 21 109220 V 10/04-12 82 43 48 39 S 15 24 2 2 SW41 6756 SW 23 135824 V 10/04-13 82 43 51 37 S 15 2 7482 SW 25 166835 E 10/04-14 82 43 52 35 S 14 2 8208 SW 28 197846 E 10/04-15 82 43 53 34 S 12 12 2 2 SW52 8934 SW 30 228857 E 10/04-16 82 43 53 34 S 9 2 8240 SW 29 203839 E 10/04-17 82 43 51 36 SE 6 2 7546 SW 28 178822 E 10/04-18 83 57 50 38 SE 5 5 2 1 SW54 6852 SW 25 153804 E 10/04-19 83 57 49 39 SE 5 1 5971 S 25 132140 V 10/04-20 83 57 45 46 SE 6 1 5089 S 25 110475 V 10/04-21 83 57 42 52 SE 8 8 2 1 SW60 4208 S 24 88810 G 10/04-22 83 57 39 58 S 9 1 3641 S 26 82601 G 10/04-23 83 57 37 63 S 12 1 3073 S 30 76392 G 10/05-00 83 57 36 67 SW 13 13 2 1 SW52 2505 SW 32 70183 G 10/05-01 83 57 34 70 SW 13 1 2318 SW 29 59596 F 10/05-02 83 57 34 72 SW 13 1 2130 SW 26 49008 F 10/05-03 83 57 33 74 SW 13 13 2 1 SW71 1942 SW 23 38421 P 10/05-04 83 57 32 77 SW 15 1 2531 SW 25 57158 F 10/05-05 83 57 31 79 SW 17 1 3119 SW 28 75895 G 10/05-06 71 28 31 80 SW 18 30 2 1 SW90 3708 SW 30 94631 G 10/05-07 71 28 32 79 SW 18 1 4355 SW 31 117250 V 10/05-08 71 28 34 76 SW 17 1 5003 SW 32 139869 V 10/05-09 71 28 36 72 SW 16 25 2 1 SW92 5651 SW 33 162488 E 10/05-10 71 28 38 67 W 15 1 6607 SW 37 215100 E 10/05-11 71 28 41 61 W 15 1 7563 SW 40 267712 E 10/05-12 71 28 43 57 W 14 22 2 1 SW87 8519 SW 44 320324 E 10/05-13 71 28 45 55 W 14 1 9208 SW 41 331550 E 10/05-14 71 28 45 54 W 13 1 9896 SW 40 342776 E 10/05-15 71 28 45 54 W 13 13 2 1 SW71 10585 SW 38 354002 E 10/05-16 71 28 45 55 W 13 1 10666 W 37 343882 E 10/05-17 71 28 44 56 W 12 1 10747 W 36 333762 E 10/05-18 81 31 43 57 W 12 12 2 1 W53 10828 W 35 323643 E 10/05-19 81 31 41 59 W 10 1 9902 W 33 287885 E 10/05-20 81 31 38 65 SW 9 1 8976 W 32 252127 E 10/05-21 81 31 35 71 S 8 8 2 1 NW52 8050 W 31 216370 E 10/05-22 81 31 32 76 S 8 1 7100 W 28 176486 E 10/05-23 81 31 30 80 SE 7 1 6151 W 24 136603 V 10/06-00 81 31 28 83 SE 6 6 2 1 NW45 5201 W 22 96719 G 10/06-01 81 31 26 86 SE 6 1 4703 W 21 84823 G 10/06-02 81 31 25 88 SE 5 1 4204 W 20 72927 G 10/06-03 81 31 24 90 SE 5 5 2 1 W38 3706 W 18 61032 G 10/06-04 81 31 23 93 SE 5 1 3448 W 18 55227 F 10/06-05 81 31 22 95 SE 5 1 3190 W 17 49422 F 10/06-06 81 21 22 96 SE 5 5 2 1 W41 2932 W 17 43617 F KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DOUG WATRY REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091003.TIMBE.01/BOU