FNUS75 KGJT 040040
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR DAVENPORT PILES...ASHLEY NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
640 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 MDT ON OCTOBER 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...BIG WINDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OREGON
WILL DIG THROUGH NEVADA ON SUNDAY. A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST ON
MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT ADVECTING COOL AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE
BURN SITE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY.

.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN NUMEROUS
                    SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....48-53 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-60%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 10-20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
                    INCREASING TO 45 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
                    EVEN STRONGER WIND GUSTS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS! POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR TO GOOD AT 0800...BECOMING EXCELLENT
                    BEFORE 1200.
CLEARING INDEX......300 AT 0800 INCREASING TO 1000+ BEFORE 1200.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6000 FT AGL BEFORE
                    1200. HIGHER NEAR STORMS OR SHOWERS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 25 MPH INCREASING TO 40 MPH BY 1200.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (80-90%). NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....25-30 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........95-100%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH
                    BECOMING NORTHWEST 5-15 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
                    GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN STORMS...FAIR BY 0300
CLEARING INDEX......1000+ DECREASING TO 350 BY 0300.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................2 UNTIL 0300...THEN 1
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL UNTIL 2400...THEN LOWERING TO 2000
                    FT AGL AFTER 0300.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 39 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 28 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT...AND NORTHWEST 15 MPH AFTER 0300.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS
                    WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-48 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 5-15 MPH WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON GUSTS
                    TO 25 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD.
CLEARING INDEX......500 INCREASING TO 1000+ BY 1000.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1000...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 12000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...CHRIS DEETS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20091004.DAVEN.01/GJT