FNUS75 KGJT 061531
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SHAY MESA PILSE...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
931 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON OCTOBER 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TODAY BUT
COULD LIMIT SMOKE DISPERSION DUE TO FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS AND
LIGHTER TRANSPORT WINDS. EXPECT SMOKE TO SETTLE QUICKLY THIS EVENING
AFTER SUNSET. CLOUDS ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL SHIFT NORTH TONIGHT...AND
THE BURN AREA SHOULD BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE THICKER CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS IS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THAT BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%) UNTIL 1300...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-62 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........12-15%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE 1-3 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING UPSLOPE. AFTER 1200...SHIFTING TO
CLEARING INDEX......300 AT 1200 INCREASING TO 605.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL AT 1200 INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE 3 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN VARIABLE. AFTER 1200...SOUTH 7 MPH INCREASING

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40% INCREASING TO 50-60% AFTER MIDNIGHT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-37 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........49-57%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE 2-4 MPH AFTER 2100.
CLEARING INDEX......150 DECREASING TO 50 IN THE LATE EVENING AND
                    OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL BY 2200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNSLOPE 5 MPH AFTER 2200.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (50-60%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........21-26%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLEARING INDEX......620 AT 1200 INCREASING TO 1000+.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.
LAL.................1.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL AT 1200 INCREASING TO 10000 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 MPH AT 1200 INCREASING TO 16 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JIM DANIELS
REQUESTED BY...JAMES PILSMAKER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20091006.SHAYM.01/GJT