FNUS75 KMSO 061121
FWSMSO

SPOT FORECAST FOR SCHAFER CREEK  H-3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
521 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON OCTOBER 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE FIRE
TODAY. AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WEST
WINDS TO INFLUENCE THE FIRE BY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ASPECT OF THE FIRE AND THE TERRAIN
UPSTREAM...THE FIRE IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY MIXED FROM THESE WINDS
TODAY...WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT A
CANADIAN WEATHER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER
THE FIRE. THIS FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS UP ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE FIRE BETWEEN 0600-0800 MDT WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SHOWERS AFTER 1200 MDT. THE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME NORTH/NORTHEAST AND BREEZY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS MAY ENCOUNTER SOME CHANNELING THROUGH THE
SADDLE JUST WEST OF THE FIRE...INCREASING SPEEDS.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-61.
MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 4-8 MPH BECOMING WEST 11-13 MPH WITH
                    HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 20 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY.
                    SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARD MORNING.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....31-36.
MAX HUMIDITY........78-83 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5-12 MPH...BECOMING WEST SOUTHWEST
                    AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
                    THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 15 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING.
                    CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 8-12 MPH...GUSTS TO 10 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........NORTHEAST 5 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...MEAD
REQUESTED BY...BRENT COOPER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20091006.SCHAF.01/MSO