FNUS75 KBOU 071141 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR ATIMBER CREEK RX...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 533 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SHORT LIVED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS WILL WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SMOKE DISPERSAL IMPROVES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SNOW DEVELOPING AND ACCUMLATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....53. MIN HUMIDITY........25%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 3-6 MPH UNTIL 1100...THEN SOUTHWEST 13-20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16-24 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTHWEST 32-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 7200-8200 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....25. MAX HUMIDITY........76%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 8-14 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17-28 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTHWEST 5-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5600-6600 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 200-400 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1000...THEN SNOW LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....35. MIN HUMIDITY........68%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 9-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1200. LOWS AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 16. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ATIMBER CREEK RX. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/07-05 19 0 27 51 SW 9 1 366 SW 12 3922 P 10/07-06 20 0 27 53 SW 6 6 2 1 W55 305 SW 10 2670 P 10/07-07 20 0 28 52 SW 5 1 1450 W 15 27326 P 10/07-08 20 0 33 43 SW 5 1 2595 W 20 51981 F 10/07-09 19 0 39 35 SW 6 6 2 1 W63 3740 W 23 76636 G 10/07-10 19 0 45 29 SW 9 1 4876 W 26 121360 V 10/07-11 19 0 48 27 SW 13 1 6012 W 30 166084 E 10/07-12 47 0 50 25 SW 16 29 2 1 SW54 7149 W 33 210808 E 10/07-13 47 0 51 25 SW 17 1 7510 W 35 228833 E 10/07-14 47 0 52 25 SW 17 1 7871 SW 36 246859 E 10/07-15 47 0 53 26 SW 17 28 2 1 W67 8232 SW 37 264884 E 10/07-16 47 0 52 27 SW 16 1 7673 SW 36 236072 E 10/07-17 47 0 50 30 SW 15 1 7114 W 33 207259 E 10/07-18 49 0 48 33 SW 14 22 2 1 W59 6555 W 31 178447 E 10/07-19 49 0 43 39 W 12 1 5381 W 28 135698 V 10/07-20 49 0 39 46 W 9 1 4207 W 23 92949 G 10/07-21 49 0 37 50 W 7 7 2 1 W47 3032 W 20 50200 F 10/07-22 49 0 35 53 W 6 1 2162 W 16 34649 P 10/07-23 49 0 34 56 W 6 1 1291 W 13 19098 P 10/08-00 51 10 31 60 W 6 6 2 1 SW47 420 W 9 3547 P 10/08-01 51 10 30 63 W 6 1 375 W 9 2945 P 10/08-02 51 10 29 66 SW 5 1 330 W 8 2344 P 10/08-03 51 10 28 69 SW 5 5 2 1 SW56 285 SW 7 1742 P 10/08-04 51 10 27 71 SW 5 1 308 SW 7 1981 P 10/08-05 51 10 27 72 SW 6 1 331 SW 8 2220 P 10/08-06 79 30 26 73 SW 5 5 2 1 SW49 355 SW 8 2460 P 10/08-07 79 30 28 71 SW 5 1 1194 SW 9 11591 P 10/08-08 79 30 27 76 SW 5 1 2033 W 10 20723 P 10/08-09 79 30 30 73 SW 5 5 2 1 SW43 2872 W 12 29854 P 10/08-10 100 60 32 70 SW 7 1 3547 W 14 44904 F 10/08-11 100 60 33 71 W 8 1 4221 W 16 59953 F 10/08-12 100 60 34 71 W 10 10 2 1 W37 4896 W 17 75002 G 10/08-13 100 60 34 70 W 12 1 4768 W 17 72632 G 10/08-14 100 60 34 69 W 12 1 4640 W 17 70262 G 10/08-15 100 60 35 68 W 13 13 2 1 W37 4512 W 17 67891 G 10/08-16 100 60 34 68 W 13 1 4319 W 17 66242 G 10/08-17 100 60 33 68 NW 13 1 4126 W 18 64594 G 10/08-18 100 60 32 70 NW 12 12 2 1 W35 3934 W 18 62945 G 10/08-19 100 60 29 78 NW 10 1 3152 W 16 47384 F 10/08-20 100 60 26 84 NW 9 1 2370 W 14 31823 P 10/08-21 100 30 25 86 W 7 7 2 1 W36 1588 W 12 16262 P 10/08-22 100 30 23 90 W 6 1 1243 W 10 11990 P 10/08-23 83 30 23 92 W 5 1 898 W 9 7717 P 10/09-00 83 30 21 95 W 3 3 2 1 W41 554 W 7 3444 P 10/09-01 83 0 21 100 W 3 1 508 W 8 3289 P 10/09-02 83 0 20 100 W 2 1 463 W 8 3134 P 10/09-03 83 0 19 100 W 2 2 2 1 NW51 418 W 8 2979 P 10/09-04 60 0 19 100 W 3 1 433 W 9 3611 P 10/09-05 60 0 18 100 W 3 1 448 W 10 4243 P 10/09-06 60 0 18 100 W 3 3 2 1 W52 463 W 13 4876 P 10/09-07 60 0 19 100 W 3 1 1235 W 20 30306 P 10/09-08 60 0 23 93 W 5 1 2007 W 26 55737 F 10/09-09 60 0 29 75 W 5 5 2 1 W54 2779 W 33 81168 G 10/09-10 60 0 34 63 W 7 1 3436 W 33 100814 V 10/09-11 60 0 36 59 W 9 1 4093 W 33 120461 V 10/09-12 60 0 38 55 W 12 12 2 1 W60 4750 W 33 140108 V 10/09-13 60 0 39 55 W 12 1 4895 W 33 140614 V 10/09-14 60 30 40 55 W 10 1 5041 W 32 141120 V 10/09-15 72 30 40 55 W 10 10 2 1 W66 5186 W 31 141626 V 10/09-16 72 30 39 58 W 9 1 5179 W 32 144147 V 10/09-17 72 30 38 61 W 9 1 5171 W 32 146668 V 10/09-18 72 40 36 66 W 8 8 2 1 W73 5163 W 33 149189 V 10/09-19 72 40 32 78 W 8 1 4168 W 31 115401 V 10/09-20 81 40 28 87 W 7 1 3173 W 28 81613 G 10/09-21 81 40 26 90 SW 7 7 2 1 W74 2178 W 25 47825 F 10/09-22 81 40 24 94 SW 7 1 1688 W 21 34417 P 10/09-23 81 40 23 95 SW 6 1 1198 W 16 21009 P 10/10-00 81 40 22 99 SW 6 6 2 1 W67 707 W 13 7601 P 10/10-01 81 40 20 100 SW 6 1 1513 W 15 24729 P 10/10-02 81 40 19 100 SW 6 1 2318 W 18 41856 F 10/10-03 81 40 19 100 SW 7 7 2 1 W74 3124 W 22 58983 F 10/10-04 81 40 18 100 SW 7 1 3354 W 24 71078 G 10/10-05 81 40 17 100 W 7 1 3585 W 26 83172 G 10/10-06 81 30 17 100 W 7 7 2 1 W78 3816 W 29 95267 G KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER/ENTREKIN REQUESTED BY...JEFF SINGER REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091007.ATIMB.01/BOU