FNUS75 KBOU 071057 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BAYOU GULCH...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 439 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SHORT LIVED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING AND SHIFTING NORTHEAST AT THE BURN AREA BETWEEN 0400-0600 THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....66. MIN HUMIDITY........23%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 7-13 MPH UNTIL 1300...THEN NORTHWEST 5-9 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1800 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 6200-7200 FT AGL UNTIL 1700...THEN 3800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....38. MAX HUMIDITY........76%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 5-9 MPH...SHIFTING NORTH 8-18 MPH AFTER 1100. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 4-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1800 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 200-600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1000...THEN SNOW LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....42. MIN HUMIDITY........69%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 10-14 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN NORTH 11-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1800. WARMER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1800. WARMER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS AROUND 50. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BAYOU GULCH. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/07-04 8 0 37 61 S 10 1 107 S 10 1009 P 10/07-05 8 0 37 59 S 9 1 99 SW 12 982 P 10/07-06 2 0 35 61 SW 12 12 2 1 W39 90 SW 13 955 P 10/07-07 2 0 36 60 SW 12 1 153 SW 12 1495 P 10/07-08 2 0 42 49 SW 10 1 215 SW 12 2036 P 10/07-09 2 0 50 38 SW 9 9 2 1 SW40 277 SW 10 2577 P 10/07-10 2 0 57 30 SW 7 1 2316 SW 12 27400 P 10/07-11 2 0 60 27 W 5 1 4355 SW 13 52223 F 10/07-12 46 0 63 25 NW 2 2 2 1 SW51 6395 SW 14 77046 G 10/07-13 46 0 65 24 NW 2 1 6832 SW 14 84685 G 10/07-14 46 0 66 24 NW 5 1 7270 W 15 92324 G 10/07-15 46 0 67 23 NW 6 6 3 1 SW41 7707 W 15 99963 G 10/07-16 46 0 66 24 NW 7 1 5739 W 12 69672 G 10/07-17 46 0 64 25 N 7 1 3771 NW 9 39381 P 10/07-18 40 0 62 27 N 7 7 3 1 SW28 1803 N 6 9089 P 10/07-19 40 0 57 33 N 6 1 1299 N 6 6403 P 10/07-20 40 0 53 40 NW 5 1 796 N 5 3717 P 10/07-21 40 0 50 45 NW 3 3 3 1 SW31 292 N 5 1031 P 10/07-22 40 0 48 50 NW 3 1 283 NW 5 1017 P 10/07-23 40 0 47 54 W 5 1 273 NW 5 1003 P 10/08-00 47 0 45 60 W 5 5 2 1 W37 264 NW 5 989 P 10/08-01 47 0 43 64 W 5 1 251 W 3 838 P 10/08-02 47 0 42 67 SW 3 1 237 W 3 686 P 10/08-03 45 0 41 70 SW 3 3 3 1 SW39 224 SW 2 535 P 10/08-04 45 0 40 72 W 3 1 392 W 6 2555 P 10/08-05 45 0 40 73 NW 5 1 561 NW 8 4575 P 10/08-06 61 20 39 74 NW 12 12 3 1 W38 729 N 10 6596 P 10/08-07 61 20 41 69 NW 12 1 1379 N 10 12720 P 10/08-08 61 20 39 76 NW 12 1 1994 N 10 18541 P 10/08-09 61 20 40 74 N 14 14 3 1 W30 2608 N 10 24362 P 10/08-10 100 60 40 73 N 14 1 2844 N 10 25298 P 10/08-11 100 60 41 74 N 13 1 3080 N 10 26235 P 10/08-12 100 60 41 74 N 13 13 3 1 W22 3316 N 9 27171 P 10/08-13 100 60 41 74 N 13 1 3427 N 9 26446 P 10/08-14 100 60 41 74 N 13 1 3539 N 8 25720 P 10/08-15 100 60 42 74 N 13 13 2 1 W24 3650 N 8 24994 P 10/08-16 100 60 41 74 N 13 1 3612 N 7 23234 P 10/08-17 100 60 40 74 N 13 1 3573 N 7 21474 P 10/08-18 100 60 39 77 N 12 12 2 1 W31 3535 N 7 19713 P 10/08-19 100 60 36 86 NE 10 1 3193 N 5 14320 P 10/08-20 100 60 34 95 NE 9 1 2851 NE 3 8927 P 10/08-21 100 30 33 99 NE 7 7 2 1 W35 2509 CALM 3533 P 10/08-22 100 30 31 100 NE 6 1 1932 E 3 3803 P 10/08-23 76 30 31 100 E 5 1 1355 SE 5 4073 P 10/09-00 76 30 30 100 E 3 3 2 1 W29 778 S 7 4343 P 10/09-01 76 0 29 100 E 2 1 617 S 6 3410 P 10/09-02 76 0 28 100 SE 2 1 456 S 6 2478 P 10/09-03 76 0 28 100 SE 2 2 2 1 W24 295 S 6 1545 P 10/09-04 43 0 27 100 S 2 1 255 S 6 1330 P 10/09-05 43 0 27 100 SW 2 1 214 S 6 1115 P 10/09-06 43 0 27 100 S 6 6 2 1 W23 173 S 6 900 P 10/09-07 43 0 27 100 S 6 1 525 SW 6 1977 P 10/09-08 43 0 33 95 S 7 1 877 SW 5 3054 P 10/09-09 43 0 40 73 SW 7 7 2 1 NW36 1229 SW 3 4131 P 10/09-10 43 0 46 58 SW 8 1 2483 SW 6 15083 P 10/09-11 43 0 49 53 SW 8 1 3737 W 7 26035 P 10/09-12 43 0 51 48 W 9 9 2 1 NW41 4991 W 8 36987 P 10/09-13 43 0 52 46 W 9 1 5188 W 7 33268 P 10/09-14 43 0 53 45 NW 9 1 5385 W 7 29549 P 10/09-15 66 0 54 43 NW 9 9 2 1 W41 5582 W 6 25831 P 10/09-16 66 0 53 44 N 9 1 4398 NW 5 18881 P 10/09-17 66 0 51 46 N 8 1 3214 NE 3 11931 P 10/09-18 66 40 49 50 NE 8 8 2 1 W39 2030 E 2 4981 P 10/09-19 66 40 44 60 NE 8 1 1404 NE 3 3595 P 10/09-20 83 40 40 71 N 7 1 778 N 5 2208 P 10/09-21 83 40 38 77 N 7 7 2 1 W36 152 N 6 822 P 10/09-22 83 40 35 85 N 7 1 1212 N 10 17741 P 10/09-23 83 40 34 89 N 7 1 2272 N 14 34660 P 10/10-00 83 40 32 96 N 7 7 2 1 W43 3332 N 17 51579 F 10/10-01 83 40 31 100 N 8 1 3609 N 16 50363 F 10/10-02 83 40 29 100 N 8 1 3886 N 15 49148 F 10/10-03 83 40 28 100 N 9 9 2 1 W66 4163 N 14 47932 F 10/10-04 83 40 28 100 N 10 1 3880 N 13 43556 F 10/10-05 83 40 27 100 N 12 1 3597 N 13 39180 P 10/10-06 83 30 26 100 N 12 12 2 1 W54 3314 N 13 34804 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER/SWE REQUESTED BY...DAVID REID REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091007.BAYOU.01/BOU