FNUS74 KEPZ 071531
FWSEPZ

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR BAILEY...NMLNF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
931 AM MDT WED OCT 7 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 MDT ON OCTOBER 07.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING....

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.TODAY AND MOVE ACROSS NMEX ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS TODAY AND EARLY THURSDAY WHILE A SURFACE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER AIR SYSTEM ALSO MOVES INTO OUR AREA LATER
TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE BORDERLAND TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A FEW
STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS
THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTY DRIER WESTERLY WINDS WILL START
TO SCOUR OUT THE REMAINING MOISTURE. WESTERLY WINDS AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY (40-80 PERCENT).
                    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
                    MORNING...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-67.
MIN HUMIDITY........48 TO 53PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 8 TO 13 MPH ISOLD GUST 17 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................50 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
MAX HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH 7 TO 12 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
                    PARTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT). SCATTERED
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60.
MIN HUMIDITY........45-50 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST 10 TO 15 MPH ISOLD GUST 20 MPH AFTN.

$$
FORECASTER...NOVLAN
REQUESTED BY...NM ADC
REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20091007.BAILE.01/EPZ