FNUS75 KBOU 131116 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR DEER MNT PILE BURN...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 510 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... THE BURN SITE WILL AGAIN BE ON THE EDGE OF COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARMER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS... ENOUGH HEATING IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 50S TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSION. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE COOLER 40S...THEN SMOKE DISPERSION WOULD REMAIN ONLY POOR TO FAIR. THIS COOLER SCENARIO IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING THAT SHOULD BE MONITORED. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG UNTIL 0900. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-57. MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 2-5 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN EAST 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-22 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 28-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2800 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO 4800-5800 FT AGL BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....29. MAX HUMIDITY........81%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 10-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL UNTIL 2200. 1000-1600 FT AGL AFTER 0200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 0200. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 0800...THEN CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-54. MIN HUMIDITY........30-37%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 9-14 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000....THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR DEER MNT PILE BURN. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/13-05 92 40 35 88 SW 4 2 346 SW 12 3379 P 10/13-06 92 40 35 91 SW 4 6 2 2 SW35 387 SW 13 4218 P 10/13-07 92 40 35 87 SW 4 2 1042 SW 15 16585 P 10/13-08 92 40 36 81 SW 4 2 1697 W 18 28952 P 10/13-09 92 40 37 77 SW 5 8 2 2 SW44 2351 W 21 41320 F 10/13-10 73 40 39 65 SE 6 2 3315 W 25 78917 G 10/13-11 73 40 42 58 E 7 2 4280 W 30 116514 V 10/13-12 71 9 45 50 E 8 15 2 1 W52 5245 W 35 154111 E 10/13-13 71 9 48 43 E 9 1 5419 W 36 166259 E 10/13-14 71 9 49 37 E 9 1 5594 W 37 178405 E 10/13-15 69 9 50 34 E 7 14 2 1 W45 5768 W 38 190553 E 10/13-16 69 9 50 37 SE 7 1 5615 W 37 177184 E 10/13-17 69 9 48 40 SW 7 1 5462 W 35 163816 E 10/13-18 64 0 47 46 SW 6 9 2 1 W39 5308 W 33 150447 E 10/13-19 64 0 45 50 SW 9 1 4945 W 32 135712 V 10/13-20 64 0 43 53 SW 9 1 4581 W 30 120975 V 10/13-21 53 0 41 56 SW 10 15 2 1 SW20 4218 W 29 106240 V 10/13-22 53 0 39 60 SW 10 1 3537 W 29 88218 G 10/13-23 53 0 38 63 W 12 1 2856 W 29 70197 G 10/14-00 48 0 36 66 W 13 20 2 1 W28 2175 W 28 52175 F 10/14-01 48 0 35 70 W 13 1 1853 W 26 43563 F 10/14-02 48 0 33 73 W 14 1 1531 W 26 34951 P 10/14-03 48 0 32 76 W 14 21 2 1 W31 1209 W 25 26339 P 10/14-04 48 0 31 79 W 14 1 1026 W 25 22741 P 10/14-05 48 0 31 81 W 14 1 843 W 26 19144 P 10/14-06 48 20 31 81 W 14 14 2 1 W30 659 W 28 15547 P 10/14-07 48 20 31 79 W 12 1 1114 W 25 22201 P 10/14-08 90 20 34 73 W 12 1 1569 W 23 28856 P 10/14-09 90 20 38 63 W 12 12 2 1 W44 2024 W 21 35511 P 10/14-10 90 20 42 50 W 12 1 2849 W 22 57672 F 10/14-11 90 20 43 48 W 12 1 3674 W 24 79833 G 10/14-12 91 20 45 44 W 12 12 2 1 W48 4500 W 26 101993 V 10/14-13 91 20 45 41 W 12 1 4656 W 30 122745 V 10/14-14 91 20 46 37 W 12 1 4813 W 35 143497 V 10/14-15 91 20 46 38 W 12 12 2 1 W52 4969 W 38 164250 E 10/14-16 91 20 46 41 W 12 1 4712 W 38 153090 E 10/14-17 91 20 45 45 W 12 1 4456 W 37 141931 V 10/14-18 73 20 43 49 W 12 12 2 1 W48 4199 W 36 130771 V 10/14-19 73 20 41 57 W 12 1 3613 W 37 113441 V 10/14-20 73 20 39 64 W 12 1 3027 W 37 96111 G 10/14-21 73 0 37 68 W 12 12 2 1 NW45 2441 W 37 78780 G 10/14-22 73 0 36 71 W 12 1 2178 W 36 68062 G 10/14-23 73 0 35 70 W 12 1 1914 W 35 57342 F 10/15-00 57 0 34 71 W 12 12 2 1 NW32 1651 W 33 46624 F 10/15-01 57 0 34 73 W 12 1 1581 W 32 43859 F 10/15-02 57 0 33 74 W 12 1 1510 W 32 41094 F 10/15-03 57 0 32 75 W 12 12 2 1 NW48 1440 W 31 38330 P 10/15-04 57 0 32 76 W 12 1 1407 W 31 37639 P 10/15-05 57 0 32 77 W 12 1 1374 W 31 36947 P 10/15-06 60 0 31 78 W 12 12 3 1 NW41 1341 W 32 36256 P 10/15-07 60 0 32 76 W 12 1 1856 W 31 50515 F 10/15-08 60 0 35 69 W 12 1 2371 W 31 64775 G 10/15-09 60 0 39 60 W 12 12 3 1 NW41 2886 W 31 79035 G 10/15-10 37 0 43 53 W 12 1 3646 W 29 89168 G 10/15-11 37 0 44 50 W 12 1 4405 NW 26 99302 G 10/15-12 37 0 46 49 W 13 13 2 1 NW49 5165 NW 24 109436 V 10/15-13 37 0 46 49 W 13 1 5217 NW 25 113722 V 10/15-14 37 0 47 49 W 13 1 5269 W 25 118009 V 10/15-15 37 0 47 48 W 13 13 2 1 NW55 5321 W 26 122295 V 10/15-16 37 0 46 49 W 12 1 4912 W 28 118216 V 10/15-17 37 0 46 49 W 12 1 4501 W 30 114138 V 10/15-18 53 0 44 51 W 10 10 3 1 NW52 4092 W 31 110058 V 10/15-19 53 0 41 57 W 10 1 3408 W 31 90535 G 10/15-20 53 0 39 62 W 12 1 2724 W 30 71012 G 10/15-21 53 0 38 64 W 12 12 3 1 NW53 2039 W 30 51489 F 10/15-22 53 0 37 67 W 12 1 1824 W 28 44567 F 10/15-23 53 0 36 68 W 12 1 1610 W 26 37646 P 10/16-00 53 0 35 70 W 13 13 2 1 NW48 1395 W 25 30724 P 10/16-01 53 0 34 71 W 13 1 1256 W 25 27285 P 10/16-02 53 0 34 72 W 13 1 1119 W 24 23846 P 10/16-03 53 0 33 73 W 13 13 2 1 NW46 981 W 24 20406 P 10/16-04 53 0 32 76 W 13 1 884 W 23 17791 P 10/16-05 53 0 32 77 W 13 1 788 W 22 15175 P 10/16-06 46 0 32 77 W 13 13 2 1 NW46 692 W 21 12559 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DOUG WATRY REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091013.DEERM.01/BOU