FNUS75 KBOU 131225 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SOUTH LATERAL MORAINE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 618 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THE BURN SITE WILL AGAIN BE ON THE EDGE OF COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARMER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...ENOUGH HEATING IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 50S TO PRODUCE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSION. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE COOLER 40S...THEN SMOKE DISPERSION WOULD REMAIN ONLY POOR TO FAIR. THIS COOLER SCENARIO IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT SOMETHING THAT SHOULD BE MONITORED. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA. BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. AREAS OF FOG UNTIL 0900. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....54-57. MIN HUMIDITY........32-37%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 2-5 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN EAST 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-22 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 32-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2800 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN INCREASING TO 4800-5800 FT AGL BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2100...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....29. MAX HUMIDITY........81%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 10-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL UNTIL 2200. 1000-1600 FT AGL AFTER 0200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 0200. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 0800...THEN CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-54. MIN HUMIDITY........30-37%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 9-14 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 24-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN BECOMING VERY GOOD AFTER 1500. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SOUTH LATERAL MORAINE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/13-06 92 40 34 80 SW 5 8 2 2 SW32 429 SW 12 4282 P 10/13-07 92 40 34 80 SW 5 2 1127 SW 15 18376 P 10/13-08 92 40 35 79 SW 6 2 1824 W 18 32470 P 10/13-09 92 40 36 76 SE 6 9 2 2 SW43 2522 W 21 46564 F 10/13-10 73 40 39 68 SE 8 2 3469 W 25 85171 G 10/13-11 73 40 43 58 E 9 2 4417 W 30 123779 V 10/13-12 69 9 47 51 E 9 16 2 1 W52 5364 W 35 162386 E 10/13-13 69 9 49 46 E 9 1 5526 W 36 171123 E 10/13-14 69 9 51 39 E 9 1 5687 W 37 179860 E 10/13-15 66 9 52 37 SE 9 17 2 1 W45 5848 W 37 188596 E 10/13-16 66 9 52 35 SE 9 1 5711 W 36 177345 E 10/13-17 66 9 51 38 SE 9 1 5573 W 35 166094 E 10/13-18 61 0 49 44 SW 9 9 2 1 W39 5436 W 32 154843 E 10/13-19 61 0 47 46 SW 9 1 5320 W 32 148442 V 10/13-20 61 0 45 50 SW 9 1 5204 W 31 142040 V 10/13-21 52 0 42 53 W 10 16 2 1 SW21 5088 W 31 135638 V 10/13-22 52 0 41 57 W 12 1 4177 W 30 108981 V 10/13-23 52 0 39 60 W 13 1 3265 W 29 82324 G 10/14-00 48 0 37 64 W 13 20 2 1 W28 2354 W 28 55666 F 10/14-01 48 0 36 67 W 13 1 1966 W 26 45745 F 10/14-02 48 0 35 71 W 13 1 1578 W 25 35824 P 10/14-03 48 0 34 74 W 13 20 2 1 W31 1190 W 25 25903 P 10/14-04 48 0 33 77 W 13 1 977 W 25 21549 P 10/14-05 48 0 32 80 W 14 1 765 W 26 17196 P 10/14-06 48 20 32 80 W 14 14 2 1 W31 552 W 26 12842 P 10/14-07 48 20 33 78 W 10 1 1130 W 24 21348 P 10/14-08 89 20 36 69 W 12 1 1707 W 22 29855 P 10/14-09 89 20 41 56 W 12 12 2 1 W44 2285 W 20 38361 P 10/14-10 89 20 45 47 W 10 1 3241 W 22 67009 G 10/14-11 89 20 48 43 W 10 1 4197 W 25 95658 G 10/14-12 91 20 49 41 W 12 12 2 1 W47 5153 W 28 124307 V 10/14-13 91 20 50 39 W 10 1 5243 W 31 142703 V 10/14-14 91 20 51 39 W 10 1 5333 W 35 161098 E 10/14-15 91 20 51 38 W 10 10 2 1 W48 5423 W 38 179494 E 10/14-16 91 20 50 39 W 10 1 5286 W 38 172007 E 10/14-17 91 20 49 40 W 10 1 5148 W 37 164520 E 10/14-18 73 20 47 43 W 10 10 2 1 W47 5010 W 36 157033 E 10/14-19 73 20 44 52 W 10 1 4367 W 37 137956 V 10/14-20 73 20 41 60 W 9 1 3723 W 37 118879 V 10/14-21 73 0 39 65 W 10 10 2 1 NW46 3080 W 37 99802 G 10/14-22 73 0 37 68 W 10 1 2704 W 36 85449 G 10/14-23 73 0 37 68 W 10 1 2328 W 35 71096 G 10/15-00 55 0 35 70 W 10 10 2 1 NW30 1952 W 33 56743 F 10/15-01 55 0 34 71 W 10 1 1882 W 32 53568 F 10/15-02 55 0 34 73 W 10 1 1812 W 32 50393 F 10/15-03 55 0 33 75 W 10 10 2 1 NW46 1742 W 31 47219 F 10/15-04 55 0 32 77 W 10 1 1704 W 31 46486 F 10/15-05 55 0 32 77 W 10 1 1666 W 31 45754 F 10/15-06 58 0 32 79 W 10 10 3 1 NW38 1629 W 32 45021 F 10/15-07 58 0 33 75 W 10 1 2226 W 31 60404 G 10/15-08 58 0 36 65 W 10 1 2823 W 31 75787 G 10/15-09 58 0 42 53 W 9 9 3 1 NW30 3419 NW 31 91170 G 10/15-10 36 0 47 45 W 10 1 4177 NW 29 99717 G 10/15-11 36 0 49 41 W 10 1 4935 NW 26 108263 V 10/15-12 36 0 51 39 W 12 12 2 1 NW37 5693 NW 24 116809 V 10/15-13 36 0 52 38 W 12 1 5779 NW 24 122926 V 10/15-14 36 0 52 38 W 10 1 5865 NW 25 129043 V 10/15-15 36 0 53 38 W 10 10 2 1 NW48 5951 NW 26 135160 V 10/15-16 36 0 52 39 W 10 1 5559 W 28 130179 V 10/15-17 36 0 51 40 W 10 1 5167 W 28 125197 V 10/15-18 53 0 49 43 W 9 9 3 1 NW44 4775 W 29 120216 V 10/15-19 53 0 44 51 W 8 1 4033 W 29 100040 V 10/15-20 53 0 41 57 W 8 1 3290 W 28 79863 G 10/15-21 53 0 40 60 W 8 8 3 1 NW41 2547 W 26 59687 F 10/15-22 53 0 38 64 W 8 1 2288 W 26 52636 F 10/15-23 53 0 37 65 W 9 1 2029 W 25 45584 F 10/16-00 53 0 36 67 W 9 9 2 1 NW39 1770 W 25 38532 P 10/16-01 53 0 35 69 W 9 1 1576 W 24 33868 P 10/16-02 53 0 34 71 W 9 1 1381 W 24 29203 P 10/16-03 53 0 33 72 W 9 9 2 1 NW39 1187 W 24 24539 P 10/16-04 53 0 32 75 W 9 1 1050 W 23 20962 P 10/16-05 53 0 32 77 W 9 1 913 W 22 17384 P 10/16-06 46 0 32 77 W 9 9 2 1 NW39 776 W 21 13807 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...NATE WILLIAMSON REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091013.SOUTH.01/BOU