FNUS75 KBOU 142016 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR CRESCENT MEADOWS...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 215 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE SOME THIS EVENING BUT STILL SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. SMOKE DISPERSION WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY WITH BETTER MIXING. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....60-65. MIN HUMIDITY........35-40%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 15-25 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 28-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....41. MAX HUMIDITY........65%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WINDY. WEST 12-22 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH UNTIL 2200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 32-36 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2000. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....56. MIN HUMIDITY........37%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. NORTHWEST 15-25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 28-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-2600 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 3600-4600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR CRESCENT MEADOWS. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/14-13 60 24 54 49 W 14 1 2094 W 32 58484 F 10/14-14 60 24 53 49 W 17 1 2117 W 30 54336 F 10/14-15 63 24 52 50 W 20 31 2 1 W28 2141 W 26 50188 F 10/14-16 63 24 52 50 W 18 1 2018 W 30 51694 F 10/14-17 63 24 51 51 W 17 1 1896 W 32 53201 F 10/14-18 50 9 50 53 W 16 25 2 1 W47 1773 W 36 54708 F 10/14-19 50 9 49 56 W 17 1 1403 W 35 42566 F 10/14-20 50 9 47 59 W 21 1 1033 W 33 30425 P 10/14-21 50 9 46 62 W 23 37 2 1 W47 663 W 32 18284 P 10/14-22 50 9 45 64 W 25 1 551 W 32 15417 P 10/14-23 50 9 44 65 W 26 1 439 W 33 12550 P 10/15-00 21 0 44 65 W 28 44 2 1 W30 327 W 35 9684 P 10/15-01 21 0 43 65 W 28 1 310 W 35 9263 P 10/15-02 21 0 43 64 W 28 1 293 W 35 8843 P 10/15-03 21 0 43 63 W 28 44 2 1 W23 277 W 35 8423 P 10/15-04 21 0 42 62 W 26 1 271 W 35 8006 P 10/15-05 21 0 42 61 W 25 1 265 W 33 7590 P 10/15-06 29 0 42 59 W 24 39 2 1 W35 259 W 32 7174 P 10/15-07 29 0 42 58 W 21 1 652 W 32 18784 P 10/15-08 29 0 45 52 W 20 1 1044 W 33 30393 P 10/15-09 29 0 48 45 W 20 31 2 1 NW38 1437 W 33 42003 F 10/15-10 29 0 52 41 W 20 1 2339 W 32 61391 G 10/15-11 29 0 53 40 NW 18 1 3240 NW 30 80780 G 10/15-12 44 0 55 38 NW 16 25 2 1 NW43 4142 NW 28 100168 V 10/15-13 44 0 55 38 NW 16 1 4341 NW 29 107780 V 10/15-14 44 0 56 38 NW 16 1 4540 NW 29 115392 V 10/15-15 44 0 56 37 NW 16 25 2 1 NW46 4739 W 30 123004 V 10/15-16 44 0 55 37 NW 15 1 4009 W 31 105936 V 10/15-17 44 0 54 37 NW 13 1 3279 W 31 88869 G 10/15-18 48 0 52 40 NW 13 13 2 1 NW47 5032 NW 20 84900 G 10/15-19 48 0 49 46 W 13 1 3793 NW 17 62167 G 10/15-20 48 0 46 51 W 12 1 2554 W 16 39434 P 10/15-21 48 0 44 54 W 12 12 2 1 NW48 1315 W 15 16702 P 10/15-22 48 0 43 57 W 10 1 1113 W 14 13421 P 10/15-23 48 0 42 58 W 9 1 911 W 13 10140 P 10/16-00 37 0 41 61 W 9 9 2 1 NW49 709 W 12 6859 P 10/16-01 37 0 40 62 W 9 1 708 W 12 7008 P 10/16-02 37 0 39 63 W 9 1 708 W 12 7157 P 10/16-03 37 0 39 64 W 9 9 2 1 NW53 707 W 12 7305 P 10/16-04 37 0 38 65 W 9 1 756 W 12 7770 P 10/16-05 37 0 38 65 W 9 1 805 W 12 8235 P 10/16-06 50 0 37 65 W 8 8 2 1 NW55 854 W 12 8700 P 10/16-07 50 0 38 61 W 8 1 1622 W 12 16616 P 10/16-08 50 0 40 55 W 7 1 2389 NW 12 24532 P 10/16-09 50 0 44 47 W 7 7 2 1 NW55 3157 NW 12 32449 P 10/16-10 50 0 48 41 NW 6 1 4149 NW 13 46740 F 10/16-11 50 0 50 38 N 6 1 5142 NW 14 61032 G 10/16-12 50 0 51 36 NE 6 6 2 1 NW54 6135 NW 14 75324 G 10/16-13 50 0 52 35 NE 7 1 6208 NW 14 74689 G 10/16-14 50 0 52 35 NE 8 1 6281 NW 14 74053 G 10/16-15 50 0 52 35 NE 8 8 2 1 NW49 6355 NW 14 73418 G 10/16-16 50 0 52 37 NE 7 1 5767 NW 12 59143 F 10/16-17 50 0 51 39 NE 5 1 5179 N 9 44869 F 10/16-18 25 0 49 41 NE 3 3 2 1 N45 4592 N 8 30594 P 10/16-19 25 0 46 47 N 5 1 3364 N 6 21215 P 10/16-20 25 0 44 51 NW 6 1 2136 N 5 11836 P 10/16-21 25 0 43 54 W 7 7 2 1 N38 909 N 3 2457 P 10/16-22 25 0 41 57 W 6 1 964 NE 2 1788 P 10/16-23 25 0 41 58 W 3 1 1020 CALM 1119 P 10/17-00 25 0 40 59 W 2 2 2 1 N32 1076 CALM 450 P 10/17-01 25 0 39 60 W 2 1 896 CALM 771 P 10/17-02 25 0 38 61 W 3 1 716 NW 2 1092 P 10/17-03 25 0 38 61 W 5 5 3 1 N24 536 W 3 1413 P 10/17-04 25 0 37 60 W 5 1 508 W 3 1658 P 10/17-05 25 0 37 60 W 5 1 479 W 5 1903 P 10/17-06 20 0 37 61 W 5 5 4 1 N17 450 W 6 2149 P 10/17-07 20 0 38 59 SW 5 1 844 SW 6 3713 P 10/17-08 20 0 42 50 SW 5 1 1237 SW 5 5277 P 10/17-09 20 0 48 41 S 3 3 4 1 NW17 1631 SW 5 6841 P 10/17-10 20 0 53 35 S 3 1 2570 SW 5 10083 P 10/17-11 20 0 55 32 E 3 1 3510 SW 5 13325 P 10/17-12 20 0 57 31 E 3 3 4 1 NW17 4449 SW 5 16566 P 10/17-13 20 0 58 30 E 3 1 4644 SW 5 17229 P 10/17-14 20 0 59 30 E 3 1 4838 SW 5 17891 P 10/17-15 20 0 59 29 E 3 3 4 1 NW17 5033 SW 5 18554 P 10/17-16 20 0 59 30 E 3 1 4031 S 3 13420 P 10/17-17 20 0 58 31 E 3 1 3029 SE 2 8286 P 10/17-18 15 0 56 32 NE 3 3 3 1 NW17 2027 E 2 3152 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER/ENTREKIN REQUESTED BY...1819 SPERRY REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20091014.CRESC.01/BOU