FNUS75 KBOU 121457 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR ELEVEN MILE SP...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 856 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT EARLY ON TUESDAY BECOMES DUE WESTERLY LATE IN THE DAY AND INCREASES IN SPEED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS COLORADO...WITH A STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY JET MAXIMUM OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROUGH BUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE BURN AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1200. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....54. MIN HUMIDITY........34%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 10-20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 28-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3200 FT AGL UNTIL 1400...THEN 4800-5600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. VERY GOOD AFTER 1500. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 0600. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1800. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ELEVEN MILE SP. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/12-08 7 0 32 59 W 10 1 280 W 14 3467 P 10/12-09 7 0 35 53 W 10 10 2 1 W53 342 W 14 4222 P 10/12-10 27 0 40 42 W 12 1 2037 W 16 35024 P 10/12-11 27 0 46 32 W 13 1 3731 W 18 65827 G 10/12-12 48 0 50 26 W 14 22 2 1 W40 5426 W 21 96629 G 10/12-13 48 0 53 23 SW 14 1 5915 W 20 99932 G 10/12-14 48 0 55 21 SW 14 1 6404 SW 18 103234 V 10/12-15 48 0 56 20 SW 14 22 2 1 W21 6893 SW 17 106536 V 10/12-16 48 0 55 23 SW 14 1 5611 SW 17 86739 G 10/12-17 48 0 53 26 S 13 1 4328 S 17 66942 G 10/12-18 39 0 51 31 S 13 21 2 1 SW23 3046 S 17 47145 F 10/12-19 39 0 47 39 S 12 1 2249 S 17 34519 P 10/12-20 39 0 42 50 S 10 1 1453 S 17 21893 P 10/12-21 39 0 38 63 S 9 9 2 1 SW30 656 S 16 9267 P 10/12-22 39 0 36 69 S 8 1 522 S 14 6937 P 10/12-23 39 0 35 73 S 7 1 388 SW 13 4606 P 10/13-00 34 8 34 77 SW 6 6 2 1 SW40 255 SW 10 2276 P 10/13-01 34 8 33 79 SW 7 1 224 SW 10 2060 P 10/13-02 34 8 32 81 SW 7 1 194 SW 12 1845 P 10/13-03 34 8 31 82 SW 8 8 2 1 SW44 164 SW 12 1630 P 10/13-04 34 8 31 82 SW 7 1 157 SW 10 1401 P 10/13-05 34 8 31 81 W 7 1 150 W 9 1173 P 10/13-06 39 10 29 73 NW 6 6 2 1 SW44 143 W 8 944 P 10/13-07 39 10 29 78 NW 8 1 235 W 10 2380 P 10/13-08 39 10 29 82 W 10 1 326 W 13 3816 P 10/13-09 39 10 32 75 W 12 12 2 1 SW44 417 W 15 5252 P 10/13-10 39 10 35 69 W 14 1 1281 W 20 28866 P 10/13-11 39 10 38 62 SW 15 1 2145 W 24 52479 F 10/13-12 60 10 43 53 SW 16 16 2 1 SW43 3009 W 29 76093 G 10/13-13 60 10 47 44 SW 17 1 3899 W 30 103178 V 10/13-14 60 10 50 38 SW 17 1 4789 W 31 130263 V 10/13-15 60 10 51 35 W 17 17 2 1 W54 5679 W 32 157348 E 10/13-16 60 10 51 34 W 16 1 5313 W 32 148850 V 10/13-17 60 10 49 35 W 14 1 4947 W 32 140353 V 10/13-18 60 5 47 37 W 12 12 2 1 W46 4581 W 33 131856 V 10/13-19 60 5 44 41 W 10 1 3191 W 28 89682 G 10/13-20 60 5 41 47 W 9 1 1800 W 21 47509 F 10/13-21 60 5 38 54 W 8 8 2 1 W24 409 W 15 5335 P 10/13-22 60 5 36 59 W 7 1 345 W 13 4030 P 10/13-23 60 5 35 64 W 6 1 280 W 10 2725 P 10/14-00 60 5 33 67 W 5 5 2 1 W38 215 W 8 1420 P 10/14-01 60 5 32 69 W 3 1 203 W 7 1205 P 10/14-02 60 5 32 69 W 2 1 190 W 6 989 P 10/14-03 60 5 31 69 W 2 2 2 1 W44 177 W 5 774 P 10/14-04 60 5 30 68 W 2 1 175 W 6 826 P 10/14-05 60 5 30 67 W 2 1 173 W 6 878 P 10/14-06 63 10 30 67 W 3 3 2 1 W60 171 W 6 930 P 10/14-07 63 10 30 66 W 6 1 204 W 8 1643 P 10/14-08 63 10 32 59 W 9 1 237 W 10 2356 P 10/14-09 63 10 35 52 W 12 12 2 1 W64 270 W 13 3070 P 10/14-10 63 10 39 46 W 15 1 1404 W 17 29499 P 10/14-11 63 10 43 39 W 17 1 2539 W 22 55929 F 10/14-12 59 10 47 34 W 20 30 2 1 W59 3674 W 25 82358 G 10/14-13 59 10 50 31 W 20 1 4296 W 26 101476 V 10/14-14 59 10 52 30 W 18 1 4919 W 28 120595 V 10/14-15 59 10 53 30 W 17 17 2 1 W47 5542 W 29 139713 V 10/14-16 59 10 52 31 W 16 1 5291 W 26 121278 V 10/14-17 59 10 50 33 W 14 1 5041 W 23 102842 V 10/14-18 59 10 50 35 W 13 13 2 1 W36 4791 W 21 84407 G 10/14-19 59 10 45 42 W 13 1 3380 W 20 58931 F 10/14-20 59 10 42 50 W 13 1 1970 W 17 33454 P 10/14-21 59 10 40 54 W 13 13 2 1 W36 559 W 16 7978 P 10/14-22 59 10 38 58 W 13 1 497 W 16 7070 P 10/14-23 59 10 37 61 W 13 1 435 W 16 6162 P 10/15-00 59 10 35 64 W 12 12 2 1 NW29 372 W 16 5254 P 10/15-01 59 10 34 65 W 10 1 366 W 16 4954 P 10/15-02 59 10 33 66 W 9 1 359 W 15 4654 P 10/15-03 59 10 33 66 W 8 8 2 1 NW40 353 W 14 4355 P 10/15-04 59 10 32 65 W 7 1 340 W 13 3923 P 10/15-05 59 10 31 64 W 6 1 326 W 13 3491 P 10/15-06 59 10 31 64 W 6 6 2 1 NW46 313 W 12 3059 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...LARRY LONG REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091014.ELEVE.02/BOU