FNUS75 KBOU 142121 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR ELEVEN MILE SP...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 318 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER BUT ENOUGH COOLING IN THE MID LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR IMPROVING VENTILATION AND SMOKE DISPERSION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....29. MAX HUMIDITY........91%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 13-19 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2600-3600 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 400-1400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....57-59. MIN HUMIDITY........20-25%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 28 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 17-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1600 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 6600-7600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....28. MAX HUMIDITY........77%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 8-9 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 400-600 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....57. MIN HUMIDITY........23%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 7-8 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN NORTHWEST 6-7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 6000-7000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 0600. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS AROUND 60. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ELEVEN MILE SP. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/14-15 45 20 51 43 NW 13 13 2 1 W49 1681 W 22 31490 P 10/14-16 45 20 53 38 W 20 1 2303 W 24 50334 F 10/14-17 40 20 52 40 W 20 1 2925 W 26 69179 G 10/14-18 40 27 51 42 W 18 30 2 1 W45 3547 W 29 88023 G 10/14-19 40 27 46 52 W 16 1 2487 W 24 60299 G 10/14-20 40 27 42 62 W 14 1 1426 W 20 32575 P 10/14-21 40 27 40 65 W 12 12 2 1 W31 366 W 15 4851 P 10/14-22 40 27 38 71 W 10 1 315 W 14 3987 P 10/14-23 40 27 37 75 W 8 1 265 W 13 3124 P 10/15-00 22 4 35 82 W 8 8 2 1 W48 214 W 13 2260 P 10/15-01 22 4 34 87 W 8 1 199 W 13 2128 P 10/15-02 22 4 33 90 W 8 1 183 W 13 1996 P 10/15-03 22 4 32 91 W 9 9 2 1 W54 168 W 13 1865 P 10/15-04 22 4 31 91 W 10 1 166 W 14 1993 P 10/15-05 22 4 31 90 W 12 1 163 W 15 2122 P 10/15-06 33 0 30 89 W 14 22 2 1 W60 161 W 16 2251 P 10/15-07 33 0 32 85 W 13 1 735 W 17 12583 P 10/15-08 33 0 36 72 W 14 1 1309 W 18 22915 P 10/15-09 33 0 43 56 W 15 24 2 1 NW58 1883 NW 21 33248 P 10/15-10 33 0 49 43 NW 16 1 3536 NW 23 81065 G 10/15-11 33 0 52 36 NW 17 1 5189 NW 26 128881 V 10/15-12 43 0 54 30 NW 18 30 2 1 NW62 6842 NW 30 176698 E 10/15-13 43 0 55 28 NW 16 1 7196 NW 29 179455 E 10/15-14 43 0 56 26 NW 15 1 7549 NW 28 182211 E 10/15-15 43 0 56 25 NW 14 22 2 1 NW51 7903 NW 26 184967 E 10/15-16 43 0 55 27 NW 12 1 7081 NW 25 158592 E 10/15-17 43 0 54 29 NW 9 1 6259 NW 24 132217 V 10/15-18 44 0 51 35 NW 9 9 2 1 NW41 5437 NW 22 105841 V 10/15-19 44 0 46 43 NW 7 1 4395 NW 16 71666 G 10/15-20 44 0 42 51 NW 5 1 2515 NW 13 38309 P 10/15-21 44 0 40 55 W 3 3 2 1 NW55 635 NW 9 4953 P 10/15-22 44 0 38 60 W 3 1 581 NW 9 4406 P 10/15-23 44 0 36 63 W 5 1 528 W 8 3860 P 10/16-00 33 0 35 67 W 6 6 3 1 NW53 475 W 8 3314 P 10/16-01 33 0 33 70 W 6 1 425 W 8 2888 P 10/16-02 33 0 32 73 W 6 1 376 W 7 2462 P 10/16-03 33 0 31 75 W 5 5 3 1 NW54 326 W 7 2036 P 10/16-04 33 0 31 77 W 5 1 316 W 7 2016 P 10/16-05 33 0 30 77 W 5 1 305 W 8 1997 P 10/16-06 50 0 29 77 W 5 5 3 1 NW54 294 NW 8 1977 P 10/16-07 50 0 31 70 W 5 1 990 NW 8 8069 P 10/16-08 50 0 35 56 W 6 1 1686 NW 9 14161 P 10/16-09 50 0 42 41 W 5 5 3 1 NW52 2382 NW 10 20252 P 10/16-10 50 0 48 31 W 3 1 3744 NW 12 40716 F 10/16-11 50 0 51 27 CALM 1 5107 NW 13 61180 G 10/16-12 50 0 53 24 CALM 0 2 1 NW49 6470 NW 15 81644 G 10/16-13 50 0 55 23 CALM 1 6719 NW 15 84682 G 10/16-14 50 0 55 23 NW 2 1 6968 NW 15 87719 G 10/16-15 50 0 56 23 NW 3 3 2 1 NW48 7217 NW 15 90757 G 10/16-16 50 0 55 25 NW 5 1 6786 NW 12 69655 G 10/16-17 50 0 53 27 N 6 1 6355 N 8 48553 F 10/16-18 25 0 51 31 N 7 7 2 1 NW47 5924 N 6 27451 P 10/16-19 25 0 46 39 N 7 1 4099 N 5 18878 P 10/16-20 25 0 42 46 NE 6 1 2274 N 5 10305 P 10/16-21 25 0 40 50 NE 5 5 3 1 N41 449 NE 5 1732 P 10/16-22 25 0 37 55 NE 3 1 481 NE 3 1541 P 10/16-23 25 0 36 58 N 3 1 513 N 3 1350 P 10/17-00 25 0 35 63 N 2 2 4 1 N37 545 N 2 1159 P 10/17-01 25 0 34 66 CALM 1 460 N 2 939 P 10/17-02 25 0 32 70 CALM 1 374 N 2 719 P 10/17-03 25 0 32 72 CALM 1 4 1 N29 289 NW 2 500 P 10/17-04 25 0 31 75 CALM 1 268 NW 2 606 P 10/17-05 25 0 30 76 W 2 1 246 W 3 713 P 10/17-06 20 0 30 78 SW 3 3 4 1 N22 225 SW 5 819 P 10/17-07 20 0 31 74 SW 5 1 475 SW 5 2311 P 10/17-08 20 0 35 63 SW 5 1 725 SW 6 3804 P 10/17-09 20 0 42 48 SW 5 5 4 1 NW20 976 SW 6 5296 P 10/17-10 20 0 48 39 S 5 1 2028 SW 6 10281 P 10/17-11 20 0 51 34 S 6 1 3081 SW 6 15267 P 10/17-12 20 0 53 32 S 6 6 4 1 NW17 4133 SW 6 20252 P 10/17-13 20 0 54 30 S 6 1 4400 SW 6 23133 P 10/17-14 20 0 55 29 S 6 1 4667 SW 7 26015 P 10/17-15 20 0 56 28 S 6 6 4 1 NW17 4934 SW 7 28896 P 10/17-16 20 0 54 28 S 6 1 3522 SW 7 20998 P 10/17-17 20 0 53 29 S 6 1 2111 S 8 13100 P 10/17-18 15 0 50 32 S 6 6 3 1 NW18 700 S 8 5202 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER/ENTREKIN REQUESTED BY...LARRY LONG REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091014.ELEVE.03/BOU