FNUS75 KBOU 131754 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SKY ISLAND - UNIT P4A...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1129 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ON THURSDAY...BUT THE FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 0900...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-52. MIN HUMIDITY........28-32%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST 19-29 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 16-24 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 28-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2800 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 4400-5000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. VERY GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW UNTIL 2000 THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....27-31. MAX HUMIDITY........81-85%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 12-22 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-4400 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 400-1400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%) UNTIL 0900...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....49-53. MIN HUMIDITY........24-28%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 13-23 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 16-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1400 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 5600-6600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 50. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SKY ISLAND - UNIT P4A. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/13-11 65 60 46 47 SW 15 3 4384 W 29 117532 V 10/13-12 57 10 48 43 SW 16 24 2 1 W41 5321 W 35 157516 E 10/13-13 57 10 49 40 SW 17 1 6034 W 36 185363 E 10/13-14 57 10 52 35 SW 17 1 6747 W 36 213210 E 10/13-15 52 10 54 32 W 17 26 2 1 W38 7461 W 37 241057 E 10/13-16 52 10 54 32 W 16 1 6605 W 35 203823 E 10/13-17 52 10 51 34 W 15 1 5749 W 32 166590 E 10/13-18 54 0 49 37 W 13 20 2 1 W30 4893 W 30 129356 V 10/13-19 54 0 46 42 W 12 1 3371 W 24 87401 G 10/13-20 54 0 42 49 W 10 1 1849 W 18 45445 F 10/13-21 59 0 39 56 W 9 9 2 1 SW26 327 W 13 3490 P 10/13-22 59 0 38 60 W 8 1 341 W 13 3718 P 10/13-23 59 0 36 63 W 8 1 355 W 13 3946 P 10/14-00 61 0 36 65 W 7 7 2 1 W45 369 W 13 4175 P 10/14-01 61 0 35 67 W 7 1 353 W 13 3748 P 10/14-02 61 0 34 68 W 6 1 338 W 12 3321 P 10/14-03 61 0 33 69 W 6 6 2 1 W54 322 W 10 2894 P 10/14-04 61 0 33 69 W 6 1 319 W 10 2829 P 10/14-05 61 0 32 68 W 6 1 315 W 10 2763 P 10/14-06 61 20 32 66 W 6 6 2 1 W62 312 W 10 2697 P 10/14-07 61 20 32 67 W 9 1 760 W 13 11163 P 10/14-08 46 20 36 60 W 12 1 1207 W 16 19630 P 10/14-09 46 20 41 48 W 13 13 2 1 W58 1655 W 20 28096 P 10/14-10 46 20 46 40 W 17 1 2559 W 23 58744 F 10/14-11 46 20 49 36 W 21 1 3462 W 28 89393 G 10/14-12 57 20 51 33 W 25 38 2 1 W41 4366 W 31 120041 V 10/14-13 57 20 51 32 W 25 1 4599 W 31 125696 V 10/14-14 57 20 52 31 W 26 1 4832 W 31 131352 V 10/14-15 57 20 53 31 W 26 40 2 1 W60 5066 W 31 137008 V 10/14-16 57 20 52 32 W 24 1 4864 W 30 127243 V 10/14-17 57 20 50 34 W 22 1 4661 W 29 117479 V 10/14-18 40 20 48 38 W 21 29 2 1 NW47 4459 W 28 107715 V 10/14-19 40 20 44 48 W 18 1 3237 W 25 76844 G 10/14-20 40 20 40 59 W 16 1 2015 W 24 45973 F 10/14-21 40 20 39 66 W 14 14 2 1 NW43 793 W 22 15102 P 10/14-22 40 20 37 73 W 13 1 633 W 21 11692 P 10/14-23 40 20 36 75 W 13 1 473 W 20 8282 P 10/15-00 40 20 34 79 W 13 13 2 1 NW44 313 W 18 4872 P 10/15-01 40 20 33 82 W 13 1 281 W 17 4289 P 10/15-02 40 20 32 84 W 14 1 248 W 17 3705 P 10/15-03 40 20 31 84 W 14 14 2 1 NW44 216 W 16 3122 P 10/15-04 40 20 31 84 W 14 1 207 W 16 3004 P 10/15-05 40 20 30 83 W 15 1 199 W 17 2887 P 10/15-06 41 10 30 82 W 15 21 2 1 NW51 190 W 17 2769 P 10/15-07 41 10 31 78 W 15 1 671 W 18 11929 P 10/15-08 41 10 35 66 W 16 1 1151 W 20 21089 P 10/15-09 41 10 41 51 W 17 24 2 1 NW58 1631 NW 22 30249 P 10/15-10 23 10 46 40 NW 18 1 3291 NW 21 60680 G 10/15-11 23 10 48 35 NW 20 1 4951 NW 21 91111 G 10/15-12 23 10 50 31 NW 21 29 2 1 NW68 6611 NW 21 121542 V 10/15-13 23 10 51 28 NW 20 1 6708 NW 21 121867 V 10/15-14 23 10 52 27 NW 18 1 6805 NW 21 122191 V 10/15-15 23 10 52 26 NW 17 24 2 1 NW64 6902 NW 21 122516 V 10/15-16 23 10 51 27 NW 15 1 6045 NW 17 96820 G 10/15-17 23 10 50 28 NW 12 1 5188 NW 15 71125 G 10/15-18 49 0 48 32 NW 9 9 2 1 NW59 4332 NW 12 45429 F 10/15-19 49 0 44 39 NW 7 1 3015 NW 12 31246 P 10/15-20 49 0 40 47 NW 6 1 1699 NW 10 17063 P 10/15-21 49 0 38 52 NW 7 7 2 1 NW54 382 NW 9 2880 P 10/15-22 49 0 36 56 NW 7 1 351 NW 9 2714 P 10/15-23 49 0 35 58 NW 8 1 320 NW 9 2548 P 10/16-00 49 0 34 60 NW 8 8 2 1 NW53 290 NW 9 2382 P 10/16-01 49 0 33 62 NW 8 1 268 NW 9 2190 P 10/16-02 49 0 32 63 NW 8 1 246 NW 9 1997 P 10/16-03 49 0 31 64 NW 8 8 2 1 NW51 225 NW 9 1805 P 10/16-04 49 0 31 65 NW 9 1 214 NW 9 1738 P 10/16-05 49 0 30 66 NW 9 1 203 NW 9 1672 P 10/16-06 54 0 30 67 NW 9 9 2 1 NW48 192 NW 9 1605 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...MIKE HESSLER REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091014.SKYIS.01/BOU