FNUS75 KGJT 132156
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR ELECTRA LAKE PILES...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
356 PM MDT TUE OCT 13 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0930 MDT ON OCTOBER 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...THE JET STREAM MOVES INTO CENTRAL COLORADO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS FALLING NORTH OF THE BURN SITE.
BUT GRADIENT WINDS WILL LIKELY MIXED DOWN INTO THE VALLEY...PERHAPS
EVEN IN THE MORNING HOURS. MIXING WILL QUICKLY COLLAPSE AROUND
SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING. A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN STORE
STARTING THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GRADIENT WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY
WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....52-57 F.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR AT 0930...INCREASING TO VERY GOOD BY 1200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL AT 0930 INCREASING TO 5500 FT AGL
                    BY 1200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 22 MPH.

.TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-35 F.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (MINIMUM OF 16000 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL OR LESS.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 21 MPH UNTIL 2000...THEN BECOMING
                    DOWNVALLEY 2-5 MPH.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60 F.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL AT 1200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....DOWNVALLEY 1-4 MPH UNTIL 1000...THEN
                    NORTHWEST 17 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...JOE RAMEY
REQUESTED BY...JACOB THELEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20091014.ELECT.01/GJT