FNUS75 KBOU 151719 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR CRESCENT MEADOWS...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1051 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL OCCASIONALLY MIX DOWNWARD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE FUNNELED TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BY THE VALLEY. WATCH OUT FOR INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT. A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....62-65. MIN HUMIDITY........24-28%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 10-20 MPH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH AFTER 1400. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 30 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....35-40. MAX HUMIDITY........55-65%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 10-20 MPH DECREASING TO 5-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20 MPH DECREASING TO 10 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL UNTIL 2200...THEN 1000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN GOOD. POOR AFTER 2200. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....55-60. MIN HUMIDITY........25-35%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 4-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...BECOMING UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH BY 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......RISING TO 2000 FT AGL BY 0900 AND 6000 FT AGL BY 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 0600. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR CRESCENT MEADOWS. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/15-10 5 0 53 44 W 13 1 4008 NW 26 93572 G 10/15-11 5 0 55 43 NW 14 1 5191 NW 26 121628 V 10/15-12 33 0 56 39 NW 15 15 2 1 NW28 6375 NW 28 149684 V 10/15-13 33 0 57 39 NW 15 1 6441 NW 28 153617 E 10/15-14 33 0 57 39 NW 15 1 6506 NW 28 157550 E 10/15-15 33 0 58 38 NW 15 15 2 1 W25 6572 NW 29 161483 E 10/15-16 33 0 57 38 NW 14 1 5609 NW 28 136268 V 10/15-17 33 0 56 38 NW 14 1 4647 NW 28 111055 V 10/15-18 18 0 54 39 NW 13 13 3 1 NW31 3685 NW 26 85841 G 10/15-19 18 0 49 45 W 12 1 2595 NW 23 59279 F 10/15-20 18 0 46 50 W 12 1 1506 W 21 32716 P 10/15-21 18 0 45 54 W 10 10 3 1 W20 417 W 17 6154 P 10/15-22 18 0 43 57 W 10 1 351 W 15 4745 P 10/15-23 18 0 42 59 W 9 1 285 W 13 3335 P 10/16-00 24 0 40 62 W 9 9 2 1 NW31 220 W 10 1925 P 10/16-01 24 0 40 63 W 9 1 208 W 10 1853 P 10/16-02 24 0 39 65 W 10 1 196 W 10 1781 P 10/16-03 24 0 38 65 W 10 10 2 1 NW38 184 W 12 1709 P 10/16-04 24 0 37 66 W 10 1 179 W 12 1679 P 10/16-05 24 0 37 67 W 10 1 173 W 12 1648 P 10/16-06 44 0 36 67 W 10 10 2 1 NW46 168 W 12 1618 P 10/16-07 44 0 37 63 W 9 1 575 W 13 6575 P 10/16-08 44 0 40 57 W 7 1 982 W 13 11531 P 10/16-09 44 0 44 48 W 6 6 2 1 NW48 1389 NW 14 16488 P 10/16-10 44 0 47 42 NW 6 1 2809 NW 16 44935 F 10/16-11 44 0 49 39 N 6 1 4229 NW 18 73381 G 10/16-12 44 0 51 37 NE 6 6 2 1 NW39 5649 NW 21 101828 V 10/16-13 44 0 51 36 NE 6 1 5473 NW 20 90132 G 10/16-14 44 0 52 36 N 7 1 5297 NW 17 78435 G 10/16-15 44 0 52 36 N 7 7 2 1 NW36 5121 NW 15 66739 G 10/16-16 44 0 52 38 N 6 1 4012 NW 13 48184 F 10/16-17 44 0 51 39 NE 5 1 2904 NW 10 29629 P 10/16-18 25 0 49 42 NE 5 5 2 1 NW32 1795 NW 7 11074 P 10/16-19 25 0 46 48 N 6 1 1276 NW 7 7705 P 10/16-20 25 0 44 52 W 6 1 758 W 6 4336 P 10/16-21 25 0 43 55 SW 7 7 2 1 NW30 239 W 5 967 P 10/16-22 25 0 41 57 SW 7 1 256 W 3 739 P 10/16-23 25 0 41 58 SW 7 1 272 S 2 512 P 10/17-00 25 0 40 60 SW 6 6 2 1 NW29 289 CALM 284 P 10/17-01 25 0 39 61 SW 6 1 340 CALM 546 P 10/17-02 25 0 38 62 SW 6 1 391 S 2 808 P 10/17-03 25 0 38 62 S 6 6 2 1 N25 441 S 3 1070 P 10/17-04 25 0 37 62 SW 6 1 402 SW 3 1048 P 10/17-05 25 0 37 62 W 6 1 363 SW 3 1026 P 10/17-06 20 0 37 62 W 5 5 3 1 N20 324 W 3 1005 P 10/17-07 20 0 38 61 SW 3 1 935 W 3 2035 P 10/17-08 20 0 42 52 CALM 1 1547 W 2 3064 P 10/17-09 20 0 47 43 CALM 1 4 1 N15 2159 W 2 4094 P 10/17-10 20 0 52 37 S 3 1 3035 W 2 6193 P 10/17-11 20 0 54 34 SE 6 1 3910 W 2 8293 P 10/17-12 20 0 56 33 E 8 8 4 1 NW13 4786 SW 2 10392 P 10/17-13 20 0 57 32 E 9 1 4846 SW 3 15294 P 10/17-14 20 0 58 32 SE 9 1 4906 SW 5 20196 P 10/17-15 20 0 58 31 SE 8 8 3 1 NW15 4966 SW 6 25098 P 10/17-16 20 0 58 32 E 7 1 4354 SW 7 23952 P 10/17-17 20 0 57 33 E 5 1 3743 SW 7 22806 P 10/17-18 15 0 55 35 NE 3 3 2 1 NW18 3131 SW 8 21660 P 10/17-19 15 0 51 39 NE 5 1 2203 W 7 14741 P 10/17-20 15 0 49 42 NE 6 1 1275 NW 5 7823 P 10/17-21 15 0 47 44 N 6 6 2 1 NW17 347 NW 3 904 P 10/17-22 15 0 46 45 N 7 1 275 NW 6 974 P 10/17-23 15 0 45 46 NW 8 1 203 W 8 1043 P 10/18-00 15 0 44 47 W 9 9 3 1 NW17 130 W 10 1113 P 10/18-01 15 0 43 46 W 9 1 124 W 12 1122 P 10/18-02 15 0 43 45 W 9 1 119 W 12 1132 P 10/18-03 15 0 42 45 W 9 9 5 1 NW16 114 W 13 1142 P 10/18-04 15 0 41 44 W 9 1 113 W 13 1155 P 10/18-05 15 0 41 44 W 9 1 111 W 13 1168 P 10/18-06 40 0 41 40 W 9 9 5 1 W10 110 W 13 1180 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...GIMMESTAD REQUESTED BY...FORT COLLINS DISPATCH REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE .TAG 20091015.CRESC.01/BOU