FNUS75 KBOU 152225 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SKY ISLAND - UNIT P4A...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 420 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHILE THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OVER COLORADO WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER. SMOKE DISPERSAL WILL BE LOWER FRIDAY DUE TO WEAKER WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....56-59. MIN HUMIDITY........24-27%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 12-18 MPH. GUSTS TO 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 25-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6000-7000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........2. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....28-34. MAX HUMIDITY........65-75%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 7-13 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 16-24 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 5-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 200-400 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....58-60 MIN HUMIDITY........21-25%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 6-10 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN SOUTH 5-6 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000. 6600-7600 FT AGL AFTER 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000. GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS AROUND 60. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 0600. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SKY ISLAND - UNIT P4A. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/15-16 16 0 54 27 W 16 1 6986 NW 28 163063 E 10/15-17 16 0 53 30 W 14 1 5992 NW 28 143737 V 10/15-18 25 0 50 34 W 12 12 2 1 NW53 4998 NW 29 124411 V 10/15-19 25 0 45 43 W 10 1 3498 NW 24 85057 G 10/15-20 25 0 41 53 W 9 1 1998 NW 20 45703 F 10/15-21 25 0 39 59 W 9 9 2 1 NW62 498 NW 15 6349 P 10/15-22 25 0 37 64 W 9 1 427 NW 13 4947 P 10/15-23 25 0 36 67 W 8 1 356 W 10 3544 P 10/16-00 38 0 34 70 W 8 8 2 1 NW53 285 W 9 2141 P 10/16-01 38 0 33 73 W 9 1 267 W 8 1990 P 10/16-02 38 0 32 75 W 9 1 249 W 8 1838 P 10/16-03 38 0 31 77 W 9 9 2 1 NW56 230 W 8 1687 P 10/16-04 38 0 30 77 W 9 1 226 W 9 1711 P 10/16-05 38 0 30 77 W 9 1 222 W 9 1735 P 10/16-06 20 0 29 78 W 9 9 2 1 NW62 218 W 9 1760 P 10/16-07 20 0 30 75 W 8 1 977 W 9 6862 P 10/16-08 20 0 35 65 SW 7 1 1736 W 8 11965 P 10/16-09 20 0 42 50 S 6 6 2 1 NW60 2495 W 8 17067 P 10/16-10 20 0 48 37 S 3 1 3943 W 10 43667 F 10/16-11 20 0 51 31 SE 2 1 5391 NW 14 70267 G 10/16-12 35 0 53 27 CALM 1 2 1 NW51 6840 NW 16 96867 G 10/16-13 35 0 54 25 CALM 1 7100 NW 15 94540 G 10/16-14 35 0 55 24 CALM 1 7360 NW 15 92214 G 10/16-15 35 0 56 24 E 2 2 2 1 NW43 7621 NW 14 89888 G 10/16-16 35 0 54 25 E 2 1 7046 NW 13 79935 G 10/16-17 35 0 53 27 NE 3 1 6471 NW 13 69982 G 10/16-18 25 0 50 30 NE 5 5 2 1 NW38 5896 NW 12 60029 G 10/16-19 25 0 45 37 E 5 1 4079 N 8 40301 F 10/16-20 25 0 42 44 SE 3 1 2263 E 6 20580 P 10/16-21 25 0 40 48 S 3 3 2 1 NW37 447 SE 2 859 P 10/16-22 25 0 38 53 S 2 1 384 SE 2 634 P 10/16-23 25 0 36 56 SW 2 1 320 CALM 410 P 10/17-00 25 0 35 61 W 2 2 2 1 NW28 257 CALM 186 P 10/17-01 25 0 34 64 W 2 1 250 CALM 321 P 10/17-02 25 0 33 68 SW 3 1 243 S 2 457 P 10/17-03 25 0 32 71 SW 5 5 2 1 N23 236 S 3 592 P 10/17-04 25 0 31 74 SW 5 1 235 S 3 776 P 10/17-05 25 0 31 76 SW 6 1 234 SW 5 960 P 10/17-06 20 0 30 78 SW 6 6 2 1 N22 232 SW 6 1144 P 10/17-07 20 0 31 75 SW 7 1 954 SW 7 6815 P 10/17-08 20 0 35 64 SW 7 1 1675 SW 8 12485 P 10/17-09 20 0 42 50 SW 7 7 2 1 NW21 2396 W 9 18156 P 10/17-10 20 0 48 40 SW 7 1 3098 W 8 20550 P 10/17-11 20 0 51 36 SW 6 1 3800 W 7 22943 P 10/17-12 20 0 53 33 SW 6 6 2 1 N16 4502 W 7 25337 P 10/17-13 20 0 54 32 SW 6 1 4737 W 7 28219 P 10/17-14 20 0 55 31 S 6 1 4972 W 7 31100 P 10/17-15 20 0 55 30 S 6 6 2 1 N18 5207 W 8 33982 P 10/17-16 20 0 54 30 S 7 1 4128 W 8 28462 P 10/17-17 20 0 53 31 S 7 1 3048 SW 9 22943 P 10/17-18 15 0 50 34 S 7 7 2 1 N15 1969 SW 10 17424 P 10/17-19 15 0 46 40 S 6 1 1445 SW 9 12609 P 10/17-20 15 0 42 46 S 6 1 921 S 9 7794 P 10/17-21 15 0 40 48 S 5 5 2 1 NW 9 397 S 9 2979 P 10/17-22 15 0 38 51 SW 5 1 327 SW 8 2398 P 10/17-23 15 0 37 52 SW 5 1 256 SW 8 1816 P 10/18-00 15 0 35 54 W 6 6 5 1 W10 186 W 8 1235 P 10/18-01 15 0 34 54 W 7 1 162 W 8 1152 P 10/18-02 15 0 33 54 W 7 1 139 W 9 1070 P 10/18-03 15 0 33 53 W 8 8 5 1 W13 116 W 10 987 P 10/18-04 15 0 32 53 W 8 1 112 W 10 970 P 10/18-05 15 0 31 52 W 8 1 109 W 10 954 P 10/18-06 40 0 31 51 W 8 8 5 1 W15 106 W 10 937 P 10/18-07 40 0 32 49 W 8 1 199 W 12 2114 P 10/18-08 40 0 37 40 W 8 1 291 W 13 3291 P 10/18-09 40 0 44 31 W 9 9 5 1 W12 384 W 14 4468 P 10/18-10 40 0 50 25 W 12 1 1525 W 17 28871 P 10/18-11 40 0 54 22 W 14 1 2665 W 20 53274 F 10/18-12 40 0 56 21 W 16 25 5 1 W14 3806 W 23 77677 G 10/18-13 40 0 57 21 W 17 1 4352 W 22 80138 G 10/18-14 40 0 58 21 W 17 1 4898 W 20 82599 G 10/18-15 40 0 59 21 NW 17 28 4 1 W16 5444 W 18 85061 G 10/18-16 40 0 58 23 NW 15 1 4043 W 17 62179 G 10/18-17 40 0 56 26 NW 13 1 2643 NW 16 39298 P 10/18-18 40 0 54 29 NW 10 10 4 1 W13 1243 NW 15 16417 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER/ENTREKIN REQUESTED BY...PIKE NATIONAL FOREST REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091015.SKYIS.03/BOU