FNUS75 KGJT 150427
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR SIBLEY...VAIL FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1015 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 MDT ON OCTOBER 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
WEST OF THE REGION LEAVING A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE FIRE
AREA THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
STARTING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD BY
SATURDAY.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%) THEN BECOMING PARTLY
                    CLOUDY (50-60%). SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....45-50 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........39-44%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 2-5 MPH INCREASING TO 9-14 MPH AN
                    OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO VERY GOOD BY 1200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 17 MPH.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50%).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....26-31 F.
MAX HUMIDITY........69-74%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST WINDS 8-12 MPH BECOMING TERRAIN DRIVEN
                    3-6 MPH AFTER 2200.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....BECOMING POOR BY 2100.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 15 MPH.

.FRIDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (20-30%).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....53-58 F.
MIN HUMIDITY........25-30%.
20-FOOT WINDS.......TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS 3-6 MPH BECOMING
                    NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20
                    MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR INCREASING TO GOOD BY 1200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4600-6100 FT AGL IN
                    THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 14 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...AS
REQUESTED BY...TOM TALBOT
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20091015.SIBLE.01/GJT