FNUS76 KPQR 161736
FWSPQR

SPOT FORECAST FOR TUMBLEBUG...USFS WNF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1036 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 0938 PDT ON OCTOBER 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY...AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH SUBTROPICAL AIR INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE TUMBLEBUG COMPLEX...
WITH JUST MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AREA THIS MORNING.
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT...AND RAIN
SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS
TO MOVE THROUGH THE LANE AND DOUGLAS COUNTY CASCADES. THE ACTIVE
PACIFIC STORM TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER RAIN EVENT POSSIBLE MONDAY. THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS FROM GETTING TOO
LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN (CWR) 0.25 INCHES OR GREATER.
FORECAST WINDS ARE 10 MINUTE AVERAGES 20 FT ABOVE VEGETATION.
THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.


.SATURDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........INCREASING CLOUDS. RAIN DEVELOPING.
CWR (%).............70 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....50S RIDGES...60S VALLEYS.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-65 PERCENT...BUT INCREASING DURING THE
                    AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........
    VALLEYS/LWR SLOPES...SOUTHEAST 1-3 MPH...INCREASING TO
                         3-7 MPH DURING THE MORNING. WIND THEN
                         SHIFTING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO
                         8-16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE
                         AFTERNOON.
    RIDGES/UPR SLOPES....SOUTHEAST INCREASING 4-8 MPH...THEN
                         SHIFTING SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING
                         10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE
                         AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...AROUND 1400.
VISIBILITY..........BETTER THAN 6 MILES UNTIL ABOUT 1300...
                    THEN DETERIORATING TO 1-3 MILES IN RAIN.
SNOW LEVEL..........11000 FT EARLY...LOWERING TO 7000 TO
                    8000 FT AFTER 1400.


.SATURDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN...TAPERING TO SHOWERS.
CWR (%).............70 PERCENT...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-46.
MAX HUMIDITY........NEAR 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
    VALLEYS/LWR SLOPES...WEST TO SOUTHWEST 7-14 MPH WITH
                         EARLY EVENING GUSTS TO 25 MPH...THEN
                         EASING TO 3-7 MPH OVERNIGHT.
    RIDGES/UPR SLOPES....SOUTHWEST 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
                         35 MPH OVER THE RIDGETOPS DURING THE
                         EVENING...THEN EASING TO 4-8 MPH
                         OVERNIGHT.
VISIBILITY..........1-3 MILES IN RAIN EARLY...THEN IMPROVING.
SNOW LEVEL..........7000 FEET.


.SUNDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
CWR (%).............20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....40S RIDGES...50S VALLEYS.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-65 PERCENT...EXCEPT 65-80 PERCENT ON
                    THE RIDGES.
WIND (20 FT)........
    VALLEYS/LWR SLOPES...WEST TO SOUTHWEST 2-6 MPH.
    RIDGES/UPR SLOPES....WEST TO SOUTHWEST 4-8 MPH.
VISIBILITY..........GENERALLY BETTER THAN 6 MILES.
SNOW LEVEL..........7000 FEET.


.SUNDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN. SNOW
                    POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
CWR (%).............20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MAINLY IN THE 30S.
MAX HUMIDITY........90-100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
    VALLEYS/LWR SLOPES...DRAINAGE 0-3 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST
                         2-6 MPH LATE.
    RIDGES/UPR SLOPES....SOUTHWEST 2-6 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST
                         AND INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH OVERNIGHT.
VISIBILITY..........GENERALLY BETTER THAN 6 MILES...BUT POSSIBLY
                    LOWERING TO 2-4 MILES LATE.
SNOW LEVEL..........6000 FEET.


.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY. SNOW POSSIBLE
                    ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
CWR (%).............50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....38-46 RIDGES...46-56 VALLEYS.
MIN HUMIDITY........70-80 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........
    VALLEYS/LWR SLOPES...SOUTHEAST 2-6 MPH.
    RIDGES/UPR SLOPES....SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 5-10 MPH.
VISIBILITY..........2-4 MILES.
SNOW LEVEL..........6000 FEET.


$$
FORECASTER...WEAGLE
REQUESTED BY...PAT HUTCHINS
REASON FOR REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20091016.TUMBL.01/PQR