FNUS76 KMFR 181742
FWSMFR

SPOT FORECAST FOR BOX CREEK...SHR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1042 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 PDT ON OCTOBER 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A COOL AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE BURN AREA TODAY. SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BE COMING
IN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IT WILL BE A LITTLE UNSTABLE...AND THERE IS A REMOTE
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AFTER 3 PM. A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF MOISTURE OR MORE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....NEAR 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........35-40 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WIND 1-3 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 2-5 MPH
                    THROUGH THE MORNING. THEN...WIND BECOMING
                    SOUTHWEST INCREASING TO 5 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS
                    TO 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH INCREASING TO 15 MPH.
CWR.................6 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....42-46.
MAX HUMIDITY........85-95 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20
                    MPH SHIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST 3-6 MPH AFTER
                    2200.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 500 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH BECOMING WEST 10 MPH
                    LATE.
CWR.................25 PERCENT.

.MONDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........RAIN LIKELY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
MIN HUMIDITY........55-65 PERCENT.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS 2-5 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHWEST
                    4 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 AGL INCREASING TO 4200 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.
CWR.................40 PERCENT.

$$

FORECASTER...STAVISH
REQUESTED BY...BRAINER F W
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20091018.BOXCR.02/MFR