FNUS75 KBOU 182151 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SKY ISLAND...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 331 PM MDT SUN OCT 18 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSION CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BY TUESDAY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE REGION BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MORE CLOUD COVER BY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER BY THEN WITH HIGHER HUMIDITIES. SNOW IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THURSDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....30-33. MAX HUMIDITY........59%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 4-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7600 FT AGL UNTIL 1900...QUICKLY DECREASING TO AROUND 200 FT AGL BY 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .MONDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....65. MIN HUMIDITY........16%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 6-14 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-400 FT AGL UNTIL 0900...THEN INCREASING TO 9200-10200 FT AGL BY 1200. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .MONDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....36. MAX HUMIDITY........60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 8-9 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......7200 FT AGL UNTIL 1900. 200 FT AGL AFTER 2100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....56. MIN HUMIDITY........27%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 7-14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1800 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 5000-6000 FT AGL UNTIL 1400...THEN 7200-8200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1400...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1200. COLDER. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS AROUND 40. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. WARMER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SKY ISLAND. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/18-16 24 0 65 14 W 10 1 9389 W 20 163858 E 10/18-17 24 0 63 14 W 10 1 8761 W 21 159800 E 10/18-18 36 0 60 19 W 10 16 3 1 W17 7656 W 22 142460 V 10/18-19 36 0 54 24 W 8 1 5181 W 18 95716 G 10/18-20 36 0 50 29 W 8 1 2706 W 15 48972 F 10/18-21 36 0 48 33 W 7 9 3 1 W16 231 W 12 2227 P 10/18-22 36 0 45 37 W 6 1 221 W 10 2001 P 10/18-23 36 0 44 40 W 6 1 210 W 9 1774 P 10/19-00 36 0 42 44 W 6 8 3 1 SW14 200 W 9 1547 P 10/19-01 36 0 41 47 W 6 1 184 W 8 1345 P 10/19-02 36 0 39 50 W 6 1 169 W 8 1144 P 10/19-03 36 0 38 53 W 6 6 3 1 SW20 153 W 7 942 P 10/19-04 36 0 37 56 W 6 1 149 W 7 956 P 10/19-05 36 0 37 57 W 7 1 144 W 8 969 P 10/19-06 43 0 36 59 W 7 7 2 1 W25 140 W 8 983 P 10/19-07 43 0 37 55 W 7 1 241 W 8 1898 P 10/19-08 43 0 42 45 W 7 1 342 W 9 2813 P 10/19-09 43 0 49 34 W 7 7 2 1 W28 442 W 9 3729 P 10/19-10 43 0 55 26 SW 8 1 3528 W 14 64411 G 10/19-11 43 0 59 22 SW 9 1 6613 W 18 125094 V 10/19-12 45 0 61 20 SW 10 15 2 1 W30 9698 W 22 185776 E 10/19-13 45 0 62 18 SW 12 1 10019 W 22 192194 E 10/19-14 45 0 63 18 SW 13 1 10339 W 22 198612 E 10/19-15 45 0 64 17 SW 12 17 3 1 W31 10659 W 22 205030 E 10/19-16 45 0 63 18 SW 12 1 9659 W 21 178473 E 10/19-17 45 0 61 19 SW 10 1 8659 W 20 151916 E 10/19-18 47 0 57 22 W 9 12 3 1 W23 7272 W 16 101788 V 10/19-19 47 0 51 29 W 6 1 4926 W 13 68299 G 10/19-20 47 0 47 35 W 3 1 2581 W 9 34811 P 10/19-21 47 0 44 40 W 2 2 2 1 SW22 235 W 7 1323 P 10/19-22 47 0 42 43 W 2 1 227 W 7 1431 P 10/19-23 47 0 41 46 W 2 1 219 W 8 1539 P 10/20-00 47 0 39 50 W 3 3 2 1 SW30 211 W 9 1648 P 10/20-01 47 0 37 53 W 3 1 199 W 8 1447 P 10/20-02 47 0 37 54 W 3 1 187 W 8 1246 P 10/20-03 47 0 36 58 W 3 3 2 1 SW41 174 W 7 1046 P 10/20-04 47 0 36 56 W 3 1 188 W 7 1067 P 10/20-05 47 0 36 58 W 2 1 202 W 6 1088 P 10/20-06 56 0 36 57 W 2 2 2 1 W44 215 W 6 1109 P 10/20-07 56 0 36 60 W 2 1 462 W 7 2806 P 10/20-08 56 0 38 58 W 2 1 708 W 7 4504 P 10/20-09 56 0 43 49 SW 3 3 3 1 SW37 954 W 7 6202 P 10/20-10 56 0 47 42 SW 5 1 2472 W 8 18125 P 10/20-11 56 0 49 37 SW 7 1 3990 SW 8 30048 P 10/20-12 66 13 52 33 S 8 8 3 1 SW33 5508 SW 9 41971 F 10/20-13 66 13 54 30 S 7 1 6513 SW 9 51656 F 10/20-14 66 13 55 28 S 6 1 7517 SW 9 61341 G 10/20-15 66 13 56 27 SW 5 5 3 1 SW26 8521 SW 9 71027 G 10/20-16 66 13 55 28 S 5 1 6573 S 8 51007 F 10/20-17 66 13 54 31 E 6 1 4625 SE 7 30988 P 10/20-18 100 60 48 40 E 7 7 3 1 S10 2677 E 5 10968 P 10/20-19 100 60 41 55 E 7 1 2109 E 6 9954 P 10/20-20 100 60 38 67 NE 7 1 1541 NE 8 8939 P 10/20-21 100 60 34 83 N 7 7 2 1 SW16 973 N 9 7924 P 10/20-22 100 60 32 92 N 7 1 773 N 9 6306 P 10/20-23 100 60 31 100 NE 7 1 573 N 9 4689 P 10/21-00 84 56 29 100 NE 7 7 2 1 SW 9 373 NE 9 3071 P 10/21-01 84 56 27 100 NE 7 1 390 NE 9 3230 P 10/21-02 84 56 27 100 NE 7 1 407 NE 9 3390 P 10/21-03 84 56 26 100 NE 7 7 3 1 NW12 424 NE 9 3550 P 10/21-04 84 56 26 100 NE 6 1 463 NE 9 3487 P 10/21-05 84 56 25 100 NE 5 1 502 N 8 3425 P 10/21-06 57 11 26 100 N 3 3 2 1 N13 540 N 7 3362 P 10/21-07 57 11 25 100 N 3 1 815 N 8 5742 P 10/21-08 57 11 27 100 N 5 1 1090 N 8 8121 P 10/21-09 57 11 31 87 N 6 6 2 1 NW15 1365 N 9 10501 P 10/21-10 57 11 34 73 N 7 1 2124 N 10 21121 P 10/21-11 57 11 35 64 N 7 1 2884 N 12 31740 P 10/21-12 40 0 37 56 NE 8 8 2 1 N21 3643 N 14 42360 F 10/21-13 40 0 38 52 NE 9 1 3806 N 13 40929 F 10/21-14 40 0 40 48 NE 9 1 3969 N 12 39497 P 10/21-15 40 0 40 46 NE 9 9 2 1 N36 4132 N 10 38066 P 10/21-16 40 0 40 47 NE 9 1 3419 N 9 29574 P 10/21-17 40 0 39 48 NE 8 1 2706 N 8 21082 P 10/21-18 39 0 36 54 E 7 7 2 NW30 1993 N 7 12590 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DAVE HOWARD REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091019.SKYIS.01/BOU