FNUS75 KBOU 192058 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR STAUNTON STATE PARK UNIT 10...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 235 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BACK INTO THE FOOTHILLS DURING THE DAY. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF THE FRONT ARRIVES CLOSER TO 11 AM OR NOON...THEN LOOK FOR ONLY FAIR TO POOR SMOKE DISPERSION AS COOLER UPSLOPE WINDS INTO THE FOOTHILLS LIMIT MIXING HEIGHTS. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS TURNING TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....38. MAX HUMIDITY........55%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 5-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7-14 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1500. MAX TEMPERATURE.....60...BUT TEMPERATURES FALLING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MIN HUMIDITY........26%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 6-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN EAST 4-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1000 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 4000-5000 FT AGL UNTIL 1200...THEN 7800-8800 FT AGL UNTIL 1400...THEN 4400-5400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1600...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 2200...THEN WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0300...THEN WIDESPREAD SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....30. MAX HUMIDITY........88-94%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 5-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4800-5800 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 2200-3200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1000...THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1400...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....44. MIN HUMIDITY........51%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 5-11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 16-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4200-5200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD AFTER 0900. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1800. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR STAUNTON STATE PARK UNIT 10. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/19-14 52 0 62 25 W 17 1 7190 W 28 175541 E 10/19-15 52 0 61 26 W 18 28 2 1 W29 6925 W 28 167031 E 10/19-16 52 0 58 29 W 17 1 4740 W 24 113201 V 10/19-17 52 0 55 32 W 14 1 2555 W 21 59371 F 10/19-18 53 4 50 39 W 12 17 2 1 SW12 370 W 17 5542 P 10/19-19 53 4 46 45 W 12 1 319 W 17 4684 P 10/19-20 53 4 44 48 W 12 1 269 W 16 3826 P 10/19-21 53 4 43 50 W 13 20 2 1 SW23 218 W 16 2968 P 10/19-22 53 4 41 52 W 13 1 203 W 16 2855 P 10/19-23 53 4 40 53 W 13 1 187 W 17 2741 P 10/20-00 53 4 39 54 W 13 20 3 1 SW38 172 W 17 2628 P 10/20-01 53 4 38 55 W 14 1 170 W 18 2695 P 10/20-02 53 4 38 54 W 15 1 168 W 18 2762 P 10/20-03 53 4 38 53 W 16 24 2 1 SW40 166 W 20 2829 P 10/20-04 53 4 38 53 W 16 1 189 W 18 2967 P 10/20-05 53 4 39 53 W 15 1 212 W 17 3106 P 10/20-06 74 4 39 53 W 14 21 2 1 SW52 235 W 16 3244 P 10/20-07 74 4 39 53 W 12 1 513 W 15 6159 P 10/20-08 74 4 41 49 W 10 1 791 SW 14 9075 P 10/20-09 74 4 47 39 W 8 8 2 1 SW41 1068 SW 13 11990 P 10/20-10 74 4 53 31 W 7 1 3374 SW 15 49610 F 10/20-11 74 4 57 28 SW 6 1 5679 SW 16 87229 G 10/20-12 96 28 59 26 SW 6 6 2 1 SW35 5679 SW 16 87229 G 10/20-13 96 28 59 27 NE 5 1 5679 SW 16 87229 G 10/20-14 96 28 60 29 E 6 1 5389 N 12 54604 F 10/20-15 96 28 58 32 E 6 6 2 1 SW22 5389 N 10 46045 F 10/20-16 96 28 55 37 E 7 1 4838 NE 9 37707 P 10/20-17 96 28 51 44 E 6 1 4838 NE 9 37707 P 10/20-18 100 74 53 42 NE 8 13 2 1 S21 3934 NE 9 30569 P 10/20-19 100 74 48 47 NE 8 1 3934 NE 9 30569 P 10/20-20 100 74 44 57 NE 8 1 3029 NE 9 23430 P 10/20-21 100 74 42 62 NE 8 8 2 1 SW17 3029 NE 9 23430 P 10/20-22 100 74 40 69 NE 9 1 3010 NE 9 23570 P 10/20-23 100 74 38 69 NE 9 1 2991 NE 9 23709 P 10/21-00 100 79 37 70 NE 10 10 2 1 SE13 2972 NE 9 23849 P 10/21-01 100 79 36 71 NE 10 1 2753 N 10 25297 P 10/21-02 100 79 34 73 NE 10 1 2534 N 13 26745 P 10/21-03 100 79 33 76 NE 12 12 2 1 N 7 2315 N 14 28193 P 10/21-04 100 79 33 78 N 10 1 2145 N 15 27440 P 10/21-05 100 79 32 81 N 10 1 1975 N 16 26687 P 10/21-06 89 67 31 82 N 9 9 2 1 NE16 1806 N 16 25934 P 10/21-07 89 67 32 79 N 9 1 2348 N 17 37451 P 10/21-08 89 67 33 80 N 8 1 2891 N 20 48967 F 10/21-09 89 67 36 71 N 7 7 2 1 NE20 3434 N 21 60483 G 10/21-10 89 67 39 61 N 7 1 3888 N 20 66240 G 10/21-11 89 67 41 56 NE 7 1 4341 N 20 71996 G 10/21-12 70 21 42 52 NE 7 7 2 1 N13 4795 N 18 77753 G 10/21-13 70 21 43 52 NE 8 1 4904 N 18 76892 G 10/21-14 70 21 43 51 NE 8 1 5012 N 17 76031 G 10/21-15 70 21 43 51 NE 8 8 2 1 NW 9 5120 N 17 75170 G 10/21-16 70 21 43 52 NE 7 1 4796 N 17 72603 G 10/21-17 70 21 42 53 N 7 1 4471 N 18 70037 G 10/21-18 35 0 39 57 N 6 6 2 1 NW12 4146 NW 18 67470 G 10/21-19 35 0 35 64 N 5 1 3341 N 16 50445 F 10/21-20 35 0 32 69 N 3 1 2536 N 14 33420 P 10/21-21 35 0 31 69 NW 2 2 2 1 N25 1731 N 10 16395 P 10/21-22 35 0 29 69 NW 3 1 1304 N 8 11404 P 10/21-23 35 0 29 67 W 3 1 876 N 6 6413 P 10/22-00 10 0 27 67 W 3 3 2 1 N18 449 NW 3 1423 P 10/22-01 10 0 27 67 W 5 1 385 NW 5 1368 P 10/22-02 10 0 26 68 W 5 1 321 NW 5 1314 P 10/22-03 10 0 25 69 W 6 6 2 1 NW17 257 NW 6 1260 P 10/22-04 10 0 25 71 W 6 1 228 W 7 1220 P 10/22-05 10 0 24 73 W 7 1 199 W 7 1180 P 10/22-06 49 0 24 74 W 7 7 2 1 NW20 170 W 8 1139 P 10/22-07 49 0 24 74 W 6 1 336 NW 8 2289 P 10/22-08 49 0 28 63 W 5 1 502 NW 8 3439 P 10/22-09 49 0 34 51 NW 3 3 2 1 NW21 668 NW 8 4588 P 10/22-10 49 0 39 39 NW 5 1 2097 NW 10 25827 P 10/22-11 49 0 43 33 NW 5 1 3526 NW 13 47066 F 10/22-12 49 0 45 30 NW 5 5 2 1 NW24 4956 NW 16 68305 G 10/22-13 49 0 46 31 N 5 1 4949 NW 16 68643 G 10/22-14 49 0 47 34 N 6 1 4943 NW 16 68981 G 10/22-15 49 0 47 34 N 6 6 2 1 NW28 4936 NW 16 69320 G 10/22-16 49 0 46 36 N 5 1 4368 NW 16 62666 G 10/22-17 49 0 45 37 NW 5 1 3799 NW 17 56012 F 10/22-18 30 0 43 37 NW 3 3 3 1 NW28 3230 NW 17 49359 F KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...ALLEN GALLAMORE REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091020.STAUN.01/BOU