FNUS72 KMHX 201100 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR JONES POND MSU...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 700 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 EDT ON OCTOBER 20. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE HIGH WILL ALSO PRODUCE STAGNANT CONDITIONS WITH A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS AND A STRONG LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 2200 FEET. AS A RESULT BOTH SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND EXHIBIT A GREAT DEAL OF VARIABILITY TODAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL SHOW LITTLE IF ANY OF THE TYPICAL DIURNAL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WIND DIRECTION WILL START OUT OUT OF THE NORTH AND TEND TO VEER TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 MPH THROUGHOUT THE MIXED LAYER. WE ARE FORECASTING A MIXING HEIGHT AROUND 3200 FEET WHICH IS ABOUT 1000 FEET ABOVE THE STRONG INVERSION AND IS THE UPPER LIMIT OF WHAT THE MIXED LAYER CAN BE EXPECTED. THE STABILITY INDEX THAT MOST RESEMBLES THE FORECAST WIND PROFILE IS I-F BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEARLY UNIFORM AND LIGHT. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 71. MIN HUMIDITY........27 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2600-3200 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 3 TO 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 4 MPH LATE. TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TEMP................48 59 63 65 68 69 69 67 RH..................65 44 36 33 29 28 30 33 20 FT WIND DIR......NW NW NW NW NW N E SE 20 FT WIND SPD (MPH)2 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 .TONIGHT... MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 42. MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 200-300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST AROUND 1 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 3 TO 5 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING. SMOKE DISPERSION....VERY POOR TO STAGNENT. TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM TEMP................64 60 54 53 52 49 49 48 47 46 46 45 RH..................38 47 64 71 74 86 86 93 96 96 96 96 20 FT WIND DIR......SE SE SE SE S S S SW SW SW W W 20 FT WIND SPD (MPH)1 2 3 5 5 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 5 HAINES INDEX........4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78. MIN HUMIDITY........28 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH LATE. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2000 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 3500-3600 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 3 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST 1 TO 5 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).............4 4 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........ TEMP................44 44 45 50 56 66 70 73 76 76 76 74 RH..................100 100 96 80 64 45 38 33 30 28 30 33 20 FT WIND DIR......W W W W W W W S S S S S 20 FT WIND SPD (MPH)1 2 2 2 3 3 2 1 1 2 3 5 20 FT WIND GUST..... 5 5 5 HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 $$ FORECASTER...ELARDO REQUESTED BY...CARVER - PLNWR FMO TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091020.JONES.01/MHX