FNUS75 KBOU 211723 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR ELK SURVEY...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1103 AM MDT WED OCT 21 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1600...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....32. MIN HUMIDITY........90-95%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 6-11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-4800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2100...THEN MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....23. MAX HUMIDITY........86%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST 5-6 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 4-5 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 600-1600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 1500. MAX TEMPERATURE.....41-44. MIN HUMIDITY........40%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 8-15 MPH. RIDGETOP WINDS GUSTS TO 20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 4-12 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 16-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 4800-5800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR. GOOD AFTER 1200. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 30. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR ELK SURVEY. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/21-11 99 61 36 69 NE 6 1 3965 NE 16 52584 F 10/21-12 97 34 37 67 NE 6 6 2 1 N 7 4324 NE 14 51814 F 10/21-13 97 34 37 63 NE 6 1 4487 N 14 55181 F 10/21-14 97 34 38 59 NE 5 1 4650 N 15 58547 F 10/21-15 83 34 38 56 NE 5 5 2 1 N13 4813 N 15 61914 G 10/21-16 83 34 37 57 NE 5 1 4599 N 14 55695 F 10/21-17 83 34 36 59 NE 5 1 4385 N 13 49475 F 10/21-18 77 10 35 64 E 5 5 2 1 N21 4171 N 12 43256 F 10/21-19 77 10 32 72 E 3 1 3454 N 12 34502 P 10/21-20 77 10 30 78 E 2 1 2738 N 10 25748 P 10/21-21 21 10 29 81 CALM 1 2 1 NE25 2021 N 9 16993 P 10/21-22 21 10 28 85 CALM 1 1729 N 9 13551 P 10/21-23 21 10 27 86 CALM 1 1436 N 8 10109 P 10/22-00 27 0 26 86 CALM 1 2 1 N22 1144 N 7 6667 P 10/22-01 27 0 26 85 W 2 1 900 N 6 4933 P 10/22-02 27 0 25 82 W 2 1 656 NW 5 3200 P 10/22-03 2 0 25 77 W 3 3 2 1 N20 412 NW 5 1467 P 10/22-04 2 0 24 68 W 3 1 373 NW 5 1333 P 10/22-05 2 0 24 60 W 3 1 335 NW 5 1200 P 10/22-06 12 0 23 58 W 2 2 2 1 N18 296 NW 5 1067 P 10/22-07 12 0 24 63 W 2 1 1117 NW 7 10439 P 10/22-08 12 0 27 66 W 2 1 1938 NW 9 19812 P 10/22-09 12 0 32 63 W 2 2 2 1 N17 2758 NW 13 29184 P 10/22-10 12 0 37 55 W 2 1 3647 NW 13 43480 F 10/22-11 12 0 40 49 W 2 1 4535 NW 14 57777 F 10/22-12 56 0 41 45 NW 2 2 2 1 NW13 5424 NW 15 72073 G 10/22-13 56 0 42 44 NW 2 1 5541 NW 16 76157 G 10/22-14 56 0 43 44 NW 3 1 5658 NW 16 80241 G 10/22-15 56 0 44 43 NW 5 5 2 1 NW13 5775 NW 17 84325 G 10/22-16 56 0 43 42 NW 5 1 5691 NW 17 86214 G 10/22-17 56 0 42 41 NW 5 1 5607 NW 18 88102 G 10/22-18 74 0 42 37 N 3 3 2 1 NW17 5460 NW 16 77547 G 10/22-19 74 0 39 42 NW 5 1 4894 NW 16 69861 G 10/22-20 74 0 36 45 NW 5 1 4329 NW 16 62176 G 10/22-21 74 0 35 48 W 6 6 2 1 N21 3764 NW 16 54491 F 10/22-22 74 0 34 49 W 6 1 3183 NW 15 43829 F 10/22-23 74 0 33 51 W 6 1 2603 NW 14 33167 P 10/23-00 74 0 32 52 W 6 6 2 1 NW24 2022 NW 13 22506 P 10/23-01 74 0 31 53 W 6 1 1962 NW 14 23663 P 10/23-02 74 0 31 55 W 6 1 1902 NW 15 24821 P 10/23-03 74 0 30 56 W 6 6 2 1 NW30 1841 NW 16 25978 P 10/23-04 74 0 30 57 W 6 1 1665 NW 16 23717 P 10/23-05 74 0 29 58 W 7 1 1488 W 16 21456 P 10/23-06 74 0 29 59 W 7 7 2 1 NW36 1312 W 17 19195 P 10/23-07 74 0 29 60 W 7 1 2622 W 20 49721 F 10/23-08 74 0 32 57 W 6 1 3932 NW 22 80248 G 10/23-09 67 0 37 49 W 6 6 2 1 NW39 5242 NW 24 110774 V 10/23-10 67 0 41 44 W 6 1 5975 NW 24 124723 V 10/23-11 67 0 44 41 W 7 1 6707 NW 24 138672 V 10/23-12 67 0 45 40 W 7 7 2 1 NW37 7440 NW 24 152620 E 10/23-13 67 0 46 38 W 7 1 7353 NW 24 151475 E 10/23-14 67 0 47 38 NW 7 1 7267 NW 24 150330 E 10/23-15 67 0 47 37 NW 8 8 2 1 NW44 7180 NW 24 149185 V 10/23-16 67 0 47 37 NW 7 1 6659 NW 24 142360 V 10/23-17 67 0 46 37 W 7 1 6138 NW 25 135534 V 10/23-18 56 0 44 38 W 6 6 2 1 NW49 5617 NW 26 128709 V 10/23-19 56 0 41 41 W 7 1 4891 NW 26 113455 V 10/23-20 56 0 38 41 W 8 1 4164 W 28 98201 G 10/23-21 56 0 37 41 W 9 9 2 1 NW45 3438 W 28 82948 G 10/23-22 56 0 36 41 W 9 1 3042 W 29 76170 G 10/23-23 56 0 35 40 W 9 1 2647 W 31 69392 G 10/24-00 56 0 34 40 W 10 10 2 1 NW36 2252 W 32 62614 G 10/24-01 56 0 33 42 W 9 1 2168 W 33 63638 G 10/24-02 56 0 33 43 W 10 1 2084 W 36 64662 G 10/24-03 56 0 32 45 W 10 10 2 1 NW39 2001 W 38 65686 G 10/24-04 56 0 32 47 W 10 1 1808 W 38 58892 F 10/24-05 56 0 31 50 W 12 1 1615 W 37 52098 F 10/24-06 36 0 31 53 W 13 13 2 1 NW45 1422 W 37 45304 F KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER/ENTREKIN REQUESTED BY...CRAIG BROUWER REASON FOR REQUEST...SAR .TAG 20091021.ELKSU.01/BOU