FNUS72 KMHX 221103 FWSMHX SPOT FORECAST FOR JONES POND MSU...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 703 AM EDT THU OCT 22 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON OCTOBER 22. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AND MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE STATIONARY OFF THE COAST FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NC THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. OUR BEST ESTIMATE OF PRECIPITATION BETWEEN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING RANGES FROM 0.25-0.75' WITH AVERAGE AMOUNTS AROUND 0.50". .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 78. MIN HUMIDITY........34 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 6 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......0-300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 5 MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (EDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............10 9 9 17 WEATHER COV......... WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP................58 70 75 75 RH..................73 46 36 36 20 FT WIND (MPH)....SW 6 SW 9 SW 9 SW 9 20 FT WIND GUST..... 15 15 15 HAINES INDEX........5 5 5 5 .TONIGHT... MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56. MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY IN THE EVENING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 5 TO 13 MPH. SMOKE DISPERSION....POOR. TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM TEMP................72 65 63 61 60 59 RH..................47 75 84 89 90 93 20 FT WIND (MPH)....S 8 S 5 S 5 S 6 SW 6 S 5 20 FT WIND GUST.....10 .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80. MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT. 20-FOOT WINDS.......LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTH 6 TO 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 2900-4800 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 3 TO 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 13 TO 21 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM SKY (%).............52 54 50 46 42 41 WEATHER COV......... S CHC S CHC WEATHER TYPE........NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR TEMP................58 58 66 75 78 79 RH..................96 96 79 63 62 58 20 FT WIND (MPH)....S 2 S 1 S 2 S 6 S 8 S 9 20 FT WIND GUST..... 10 15 HAINES INDEX........3 3 3 4 4 4 $$ FORECASTER...ELARDO REQUESTED BY...CARVER - PLNWR FMO TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091022.JONES.01/MHX