FNUS75 KBOU 280100 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR CUB CREEK PILES...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 701 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE BURN AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO COLORADO. THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE BURN AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE...UPSLOPE WINDS... AND LIFT FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH SNOWFALL TAPERING OFF THURSDAY DURING THE DAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 2400...THEN SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....17-23. MAX HUMIDITY........100%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 5-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4800 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 1000-1400 FT AGL AFTER 2300. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....25-30. MIN HUMIDITY........85-95%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 6-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....14-19. MAX HUMIDITY........100%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 5-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5000 FT AGL UNTIL 2400...THEN 3400-3600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....25-30. MIN HUMIDITY........50-60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 8-9 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN NORTHWEST 4-5 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6000-7000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 16. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0600. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR CUB CREEK PILES. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/27-18 98 41 39 56 NE 5 5 2 1 SW32 4847 SE 8 32189 P 10/27-19 98 41 36 59 NE 3 1 3847 SE 8 25691 P 10/27-20 98 41 33 63 NE 3 1 2847 E 8 19194 P 10/27-21 98 41 30 67 NE 3 3 2 1 SW31 1847 E 8 12697 P 10/27-22 98 41 29 71 NE 3 1 1532 E 8 10931 P 10/27-23 98 41 28 76 NE 3 1 1217 E 9 9166 P 10/28-00 100 86 27 80 NE 5 5 2 1 S43 902 NE 9 7400 P 10/28-01 100 86 26 84 NE 6 1 935 NE 10 8614 P 10/28-02 100 86 26 86 NE 7 1 967 NE 12 9829 P 10/28-03 100 86 25 87 NE 8 8 2 1 S45 1000 NE 13 11043 P 10/28-04 100 86 24 88 NE 8 1 1226 NE 14 14558 P 10/28-05 100 86 24 87 N 8 1 1452 NE 14 18073 P 10/28-06 100 82 23 85 N 8 8 2 1 S35 1679 NE 15 21588 P 10/28-07 100 82 22 88 N 8 1 1659 NE 16 22784 P 10/28-08 100 82 22 94 N 8 1 1639 N 17 23980 P 10/28-09 100 82 22 100 N 8 8 2 1 S28 1619 N 18 25176 P 10/28-10 100 82 22 100 N 8 1 2170 N 15 24869 P 10/28-11 100 82 23 100 NW 8 1 2722 N 12 24562 P 10/28-12 100 90 24 100 NW 8 8 2 1 S20 3273 N 8 24255 P 10/28-13 100 90 25 100 N 8 1 3578 N 8 25048 P 10/28-14 100 90 25 100 N 8 1 3883 N 8 25841 P 10/28-15 100 90 24 100 N 8 8 2 1 SW21 4188 N 7 26633 P 10/28-16 100 90 24 100 N 8 1 4503 N 8 33123 P 10/28-17 100 90 22 100 N 8 1 4819 N 9 39612 P 10/28-18 100 96 27 83 N 8 8 2 1 SW14 5135 N 10 46102 F 10/28-19 100 96 24 89 N 8 1 4853 N 10 44287 F 10/28-20 100 96 23 92 N 8 1 4571 N 10 42472 F 10/28-21 100 96 22 92 N 7 7 2 1 SW 6 4289 N 10 40657 F 10/28-22 100 96 21 93 N 7 1 4008 N 12 39226 P 10/28-23 100 96 20 91 N 7 1 3728 N 12 37795 P 10/29-00 100 83 20 91 N 7 7 2 1 W 2 3448 N 13 36363 P 10/29-01 100 83 19 91 N 7 1 3474 N 13 37635 P 10/29-02 100 83 19 89 N 7 1 3501 N 13 38906 P 10/29-03 100 83 18 88 N 7 7 2 1 S 7 3528 N 13 40177 F 10/29-04 100 83 18 88 N 7 1 3538 N 14 43074 F 10/29-05 100 83 18 87 N 7 1 3548 N 15 45971 F 10/29-06 97 61 17 87 N 7 7 2 1 S 8 3558 N 16 48867 F 10/29-07 97 61 17 86 N 6 1 4055 N 15 53047 F 10/29-08 97 61 19 79 N 6 1 4552 N 15 57226 F 10/29-09 97 61 22 70 N 6 6 2 1 NW 3 5049 N 14 61405 G 10/29-10 97 61 25 62 N 6 1 5693 N 15 73509 G 10/29-11 97 61 27 57 N 6 1 6338 N 15 85614 G 10/29-12 97 60 28 55 N 6 6 2 1 NW 8 6982 N 16 97719 G 10/29-13 97 60 29 53 N 5 1 6981 NW 16 101050 V 10/29-14 97 60 29 52 N 5 1 6979 NW 17 104381 V 10/29-15 97 60 30 52 NW 3 3 2 1 NW18 6977 NW 17 107712 V 10/29-16 97 60 29 54 NW 3 1 6379 NW 18 102798 V 10/29-17 97 60 28 58 W 2 1 5781 NW 20 97884 G 10/29-18 71 30 27 65 SW 2 2 2 1 N29 5183 NW 21 92970 G 10/29-19 71 30 24 78 SW 3 1 4437 NW 22 82253 G 10/29-20 71 30 22 87 SW 5 1 3691 NW 23 71536 G 10/29-21 71 30 22 90 SW 6 6 2 1 N35 2946 NW 24 60820 G 10/29-22 71 30 21 90 W 7 1 2463 NW 24 51629 F 10/29-23 71 30 20 87 W 8 1 1980 NW 25 42439 F 10/30-00 71 20 19 85 W 9 9 2 1 N30 1498 NW 25 33249 P 10/30-01 71 20 19 83 W 10 1 1372 NW 25 30472 P 10/30-02 71 20 18 82 W 10 1 1246 W 25 27695 P 10/30-03 71 20 18 80 W 10 10 2 1 NW26 1120 W 25 24918 P 10/30-04 71 20 18 78 W 10 1 977 W 26 22404 P 10/30-05 71 20 17 76 W 12 1 833 W 28 19890 P 10/30-06 48 20 17 76 W 12 12 2 1 N47 690 NW 29 17376 P 10/30-07 48 20 17 76 W 14 1 882 NW 29 22154 P 10/30-08 48 20 20 68 W 13 1 1075 NW 29 26931 P 10/30-09 48 20 24 58 W 12 12 3 1 N67 1267 NW 29 31709 P 10/30-10 48 20 29 50 W 9 1 1459 NW 26 33123 P 10/30-11 48 20 33 45 W 7 1 1652 NW 24 34538 P 10/30-12 48 20 35 42 W 6 6 2 1 N64 1844 NW 22 35952 P 10/30-13 48 20 36 41 W 6 1 1757 NW 21 31390 P 10/30-14 48 20 36 41 W 6 1 1670 NW 18 26829 P 10/30-15 48 20 37 41 W 6 6 2 1 N56 1583 NW 16 22267 P 10/30-16 48 20 36 42 W 7 1 1292 NW 17 19026 P 10/30-17 48 20 35 45 SW 7 1 1001 NW 18 15786 P 10/30-18 42 5 33 49 SW 8 8 2 1 N52 710 NW 21 12545 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...DAVE LARSEN REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091027.CUBCR.01/BOU