FNUS75 KBOU 271619 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR SUGARLOAF F1...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1019 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...THE STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE ORGANIZING OVER UTAH TODAY WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVER COLORADO IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW BEGINS DEEPENING OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. WINDS AT THE PROJECT SITE SHOULD SWITCH TO NORTHEASTERLY BY 1600 MDT. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. ANY RAINFALL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE STORM SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW BY 2100. SNOWFALL WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOL TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE WINDS WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF MIXING LAYERS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1600...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-44. MIN HUMIDITY........42-48%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 10-16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 9-16 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....14-20. MAX HUMIDITY........94-100%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-8 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN NORTHEAST AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 4-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....26-32. MIN HUMIDITY........80-88%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 9-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 0700...THEN POOR UNTIL 1000...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 0600. SNOW UNTIL 0600... THEN SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0600. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR SUGARLOAF F1. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/27-09 95 3 36 42 W 16 24 2 1 W41 683 W 14 8045 P 10/27-10 95 3 37 44 W 13 1 939 W 12 9047 P 10/27-11 95 3 39 46 W 9 1 1196 SW 10 10048 P 10/27-12 95 16 39 51 W 7 7 2 1 W47 1453 SW 9 11049 P 10/27-13 95 16 39 54 W 6 1 1943 SW 8 13278 P 10/27-14 95 16 38 58 W 6 1 2434 S 8 15507 P 10/27-15 95 26 36 62 W 6 6 2 1 SW38 2924 S 7 17735 P 10/27-16 95 26 34 68 SW 3 1 2714 SE 7 15367 P 10/27-17 95 26 32 73 SE 2 1 2504 E 6 12999 P 10/27-18 100 79 31 78 CALM 1 2 1 SW28 2294 NE 6 10632 P 10/27-19 100 79 30 81 E 3 1 2256 NE 7 13008 P 10/27-20 100 79 29 83 NE 6 1 2219 E 8 15384 P 10/27-21 100 79 28 84 NE 8 8 2 1 S32 2181 E 9 17760 P 10/27-22 100 79 27 84 NE 8 1 2243 E 10 19839 P 10/27-23 100 79 27 84 NE 8 1 2305 E 10 21919 P 10/28-00 100 90 26 83 N 7 7 2 1 S36 2367 E 12 23998 P 10/28-01 100 90 25 82 NE 6 1 2386 E 13 26763 P 10/28-02 100 90 25 81 NE 6 1 2406 E 14 29528 P 10/28-03 100 90 24 82 NE 6 6 2 1 S36 2426 E 15 32292 P 10/28-04 100 90 23 84 NE 7 1 2403 E 17 34920 P 10/28-05 100 90 22 88 NE 7 1 2381 NE 18 37547 P 10/28-06 100 84 21 93 NE 12 12 2 1 SE36 2358 NE 20 40174 F 10/28-07 100 84 20 97 NE 9 1 1357 E 15 18834 P 10/28-08 100 84 20 100 N 9 1 1882 E 16 26945 P 10/28-09 100 84 19 100 N 9 9 2 1 S38 2408 E 17 35056 P 10/28-10 100 84 22 100 N 9 1 2704 E 17 40036 F 10/28-11 100 84 24 93 N 9 1 3000 SE 17 45016 F 10/28-12 100 90 27 86 N 9 9 2 1 S45 3296 SE 17 49996 F 10/28-13 100 90 27 85 N 9 1 3432 SE 16 49203 F 10/28-14 100 90 28 84 N 9 1 3569 SE 16 48411 F 10/28-15 100 90 28 82 N 9 9 2 1 S52 3705 SE 15 47618 F 10/28-16 100 90 28 81 N 9 1 3709 SE 14 46173 F 10/28-17 100 90 27 81 N 9 1 3713 SE 14 44727 F 10/28-18 100 91 25 84 N 9 9 2 1 S52 3717 SE 14 43282 F 10/28-19 100 91 23 89 N 9 1 3451 SE 12 36463 P 10/28-20 100 91 22 93 N 9 1 3185 SE 10 29644 P 10/28-21 100 91 21 94 N 9 9 2 1 S39 2919 SE 9 22825 P 10/28-22 100 91 20 94 NE 8 1 2817 SE 8 18680 P 10/28-23 100 91 20 94 NE 8 1 2716 E 6 14535 P 10/29-00 100 80 19 93 NE 8 8 2 1 S44 2614 E 5 10390 P 10/29-01 100 80 19 92 N 7 1 2765 E 5 12316 P 10/29-02 100 80 18 91 N 7 1 2915 NE 6 14242 P 10/29-03 100 80 18 90 N 7 7 2 1 S59 3066 NE 6 16169 P 10/29-04 100 80 18 89 N 7 1 2920 NE 7 17742 P 10/29-05 100 80 18 87 N 7 1 2775 NE 8 19316 P 10/29-06 97 61 17 87 N 7 7 2 1 S29 2630 NE 9 20890 P 10/29-07 97 61 17 85 N 7 1 3044 NE 10 30067 P 10/29-08 97 61 19 79 N 6 1 3458 N 13 39244 P 10/29-09 97 61 21 71 N 6 6 2 1 E10 3872 N 15 48421 F 10/29-10 97 61 24 64 N 6 1 4329 N 15 58067 F 10/29-11 97 61 25 59 N 6 1 4786 N 16 67713 G 10/29-12 97 60 26 57 N 6 6 2 1 NE21 5242 N 17 77360 G 10/29-13 97 60 27 55 N 6 1 5286 N 16 74957 G 10/29-14 97 60 27 54 N 6 1 5330 N 16 72553 G 10/29-15 97 60 28 54 NW 6 6 2 1 N21 5374 NW 15 70150 G 10/29-16 97 60 27 56 NW 5 1 5329 NW 16 73941 G 10/29-17 97 60 27 60 W 5 1 5284 NW 17 77732 G 10/29-18 71 15 25 67 W 5 5 2 1 N29 5239 NW 18 81523 G 10/29-19 71 15 24 78 W 7 1 4945 NW 18 80654 G 10/29-20 71 15 22 87 W 8 1 4652 NW 20 79784 G 10/29-21 71 15 22 88 W 9 9 2 1 N35 4358 NW 21 78914 G 10/29-22 71 15 21 88 W 12 1 3883 NW 22 72855 G 10/29-23 71 15 21 85 W 13 1 3407 NW 23 66796 G 10/30-00 71 15 20 82 W 14 22 2 1 N36 2931 NW 24 60737 G 10/30-01 71 15 20 80 W 14 1 2619 NW 23 52524 F 10/30-02 71 15 19 77 W 15 1 2306 NW 22 44311 F 10/30-03 71 15 19 75 W 15 24 2 1 N41 1994 W 21 36098 P 10/30-04 71 15 19 72 W 16 1 1792 W 23 35715 P 10/30-05 71 15 19 70 W 16 1 1591 W 26 35333 P 10/30-06 48 10 18 70 W 16 25 2 1 N36 1389 W 29 34950 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ DANKERS...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...ED LEBLANC REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091027.SUGAR.02/BOU