FNUS75 KBOU 280022 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR BALD MOUNTAIN...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 621 PM MDT TUE OCT 27 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED OVER THE BURN AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO COLORADO. THE TROUGH PUSHES OVER THE BURN AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE...UPSLOPE WINDS... AND LIFT FROM THE TROUGH WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH SNOWFALL TAPERING OFF THURSDAY DURING THE DAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 2400...THEN SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....20-25. MAX HUMIDITY........100%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3600 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 800-1800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....26-31. MIN HUMIDITY........85-95%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 8-14 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 13-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100. GOOD AFTER 1700. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....17-23. MAX HUMIDITY........100%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 7-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....27-32. MIN HUMIDITY........60-70%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 7-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4400-5400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1800. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR BALD MOUNTAIN. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/27-18 100 67 38 71 NE 3 3 2 1 S16 3566 E 9 28587 P 10/27-19 100 67 35 76 NE 3 1 2786 E 9 22186 P 10/27-20 100 67 32 81 N 5 1 2005 E 9 15785 P 10/27-21 100 67 30 86 N 6 6 2 1 SW29 1225 E 9 9384 P 10/27-22 100 67 29 91 N 6 1 1005 E 10 8330 P 10/27-23 100 67 28 94 N 7 1 785 NE 12 7275 P 10/28-00 100 89 27 97 N 7 7 2 1 S41 565 NE 13 6221 P 10/28-01 100 89 27 98 N 8 1 742 NE 15 10206 P 10/28-02 100 89 26 98 N 9 1 919 NE 17 14192 P 10/28-03 100 89 25 98 N 10 10 2 1 S39 1096 NE 20 18177 P 10/28-04 100 89 24 99 N 10 1 1089 NE 21 19346 P 10/28-05 100 89 24 100 N 12 1 1082 NE 22 20516 P 10/28-06 100 83 23 100 N 12 12 2 1 S30 1075 N 23 21685 P 10/28-07 100 83 23 100 N 10 1 1204 N 23 24440 P 10/28-08 100 83 23 100 N 10 1 1333 N 23 27194 P 10/28-09 100 83 23 100 N 10 10 2 1 SE23 1462 N 23 29949 P 10/28-10 100 83 24 100 N 10 1 2103 N 22 37294 P 10/28-11 100 83 26 100 N 10 1 2745 NE 20 44639 F 10/28-12 100 90 27 100 N 10 10 2 1 S21 3387 NE 17 51984 F 10/28-13 100 90 28 100 N 10 1 3694 NE 16 50387 F 10/28-14 100 90 28 100 N 12 1 4002 N 14 48789 F 10/28-15 100 90 28 98 N 12 12 2 1 SW13 4309 N 13 47192 F 10/28-16 100 90 27 98 N 12 1 4438 N 15 56334 F 10/28-17 100 90 26 100 N 12 1 4567 N 16 65476 G 10/28-18 100 85 28 88 N 12 12 2 1 SW13 4696 N 18 74618 G 10/28-19 100 85 26 92 N 10 1 4494 N 17 69447 G 10/28-20 100 85 25 95 N 10 1 4291 N 17 64275 G 10/28-21 100 85 24 95 N 9 9 2 1 W 8 4089 N 16 59104 F 10/28-22 100 85 24 95 N 5 1 3896 N 16 54829 F 10/28-23 100 85 23 94 N 5 1 3703 N 16 50554 F 10/29-00 100 81 23 94 N 5 5 2 1 W 6 3510 N 15 46279 F 10/29-01 100 81 22 94 N 5 1 3575 N 15 45363 F 10/29-02 100 81 22 94 N 5 1 3641 N 14 44447 F 10/29-03 100 81 22 94 N 5 5 2 1 W 2 3706 N 14 43531 F 10/29-04 100 81 21 94 N 5 1 3645 N 14 44405 F 10/29-05 100 81 21 93 N 5 1 3584 N 15 45279 F 10/29-06 97 61 21 93 N 5 5 2 1 N 6 3523 N 15 46152 F 10/29-07 97 61 21 91 N 5 1 3952 N 15 49642 F 10/29-08 97 61 22 86 N 5 1 4381 N 14 53132 F 10/29-09 97 61 25 78 N 5 5 2 1 N12 4810 N 14 56622 F 10/29-10 97 61 27 70 N 3 1 5084 N 15 68814 G 10/29-11 97 61 28 66 N 3 1 5357 N 17 81007 G 10/29-12 97 60 29 63 N 3 3 2 1 NW14 5630 N 20 93199 G 10/29-13 97 60 30 62 N 3 1 5485 N 18 86264 G 10/29-14 97 60 30 61 N 3 1 5340 NW 17 79328 G 10/29-15 97 60 31 61 NW 3 3 2 1 NW20 5196 NW 16 72393 G 10/29-16 97 60 30 63 NW 3 1 5049 NW 17 73943 G 10/29-17 97 60 29 67 W 2 1 4903 NW 17 75494 G 10/29-18 70 30 28 74 SW 2 2 2 1 N31 4756 NW 18 77044 G 10/29-19 70 30 25 85 SW 3 1 3892 NW 21 66152 G 10/29-20 70 30 24 93 W 5 1 3028 NW 22 55261 F 10/29-21 70 30 23 95 W 6 6 2 1 N35 2164 NW 24 44369 F 10/29-22 70 30 22 95 W 7 1 1892 NW 25 40878 F 10/29-23 70 30 22 92 W 8 1 1620 NW 28 37388 P 10/30-00 70 20 21 90 W 8 8 2 1 N30 1348 NW 29 33897 P 10/30-01 70 20 21 89 W 9 1 1189 W 28 28761 P 10/30-02 70 20 20 88 W 9 1 1030 W 26 23625 P 10/30-03 70 20 20 86 W 9 9 2 1 N24 871 W 24 18489 P 10/30-04 70 20 20 85 W 9 1 804 W 23 16314 P 10/30-05 70 20 19 83 W 9 1 737 W 22 14140 P 10/30-06 45 20 19 83 W 10 10 3 1 N36 670 W 21 11966 P 10/30-07 45 20 19 83 W 18 1 778 W 21 14083 P 10/30-08 45 20 22 76 W 16 1 886 W 21 16200 P 10/30-09 45 20 26 66 W 15 15 3 1 N59 995 NW 21 18318 P 10/30-10 45 20 30 58 W 13 1 1055 NW 20 17449 P 10/30-11 45 20 33 53 W 10 1 1115 NW 17 16579 P 10/30-12 45 20 34 50 W 8 8 2 1 N59 1176 NW 15 15710 P 10/30-13 45 20 35 49 W 7 1 1126 NW 14 13716 P 10/30-14 45 20 36 50 W 6 1 1076 NW 13 11722 P 10/30-15 45 20 36 50 W 6 6 2 1 N45 1026 NW 10 9728 P 10/30-16 45 20 36 51 W 6 1 877 NW 10 8235 P 10/30-17 45 20 35 54 W 6 1 727 NW 10 6742 P 10/30-18 40 5 34 57 SW 6 6 2 1 N46 578 NW 10 5249 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...1592 STALNACKER REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091028.BALDM.01/BOU