FNUS75 KBOU 290023 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR DEER MTN PILES...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 624 PM MDT WED OCT 28 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE BURN AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH AN UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY AT SUNSET. AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE DAY. THE STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY EVENING ...BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....12-19. MAX HUMIDITY........100%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 9-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3600-4600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 2300. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW UNTIL 1200...THEN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....17-23. MIN HUMIDITY........80-90%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 9-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1400...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....15-20. MAX HUMIDITY........90-100%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 14-24 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL UNTIL 0500...THEN 2400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....30-35. MIN HUMIDITY........45-55%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST 17-27 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 24-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-2400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1800. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 1200 UNTIL 1800. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR DEER MTN PILES. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/28-18 100 100 19 96 N 13 13 2 1 S29 4504 NE 17 68469 G 10/28-19 100 100 18 98 N 13 1 4341 NE 16 61420 G 10/28-20 100 100 18 99 N 13 1 4178 NE 15 54370 F 10/28-21 100 100 17 98 N 13 13 2 1 S31 4014 NE 14 47321 F 10/28-22 100 100 17 97 N 13 1 3984 NE 12 41894 F 10/28-23 100 100 17 95 N 12 1 3953 NE 10 36466 P 10/29-00 100 100 16 94 N 12 12 2 1 S22 3923 NE 9 31039 P 10/29-01 100 100 16 93 N 10 1 3848 NE 9 32353 P 10/29-02 100 100 16 92 N 9 1 3774 NE 10 33668 P 10/29-03 100 100 16 92 N 9 9 2 1 S36 3699 N 10 34983 P 10/29-04 100 100 16 92 N 9 1 3702 N 12 36195 P 10/29-05 100 100 15 92 N 9 1 3705 N 12 37408 P 10/29-06 100 80 15 92 N 10 10 2 1 S 9 3708 N 12 38620 P 10/29-07 100 80 15 92 N 10 1 3933 N 12 40264 F 10/29-08 100 80 16 91 N 10 1 4158 N 12 41907 F 10/29-09 100 80 17 87 N 10 10 2 1 E 8 4383 N 12 43550 F 10/29-10 100 80 18 84 N 10 1 4499 N 13 48459 F 10/29-11 100 80 19 82 N 10 1 4614 N 14 53368 F 10/29-12 99 67 20 82 N 10 10 2 1 NE 9 4730 N 14 58276 F 10/29-13 99 67 20 81 N 12 1 4762 N 15 63471 G 10/29-14 99 67 20 80 N 12 1 4795 NW 16 68665 G 10/29-15 99 67 20 80 N 12 12 2 1 N 8 4827 NW 17 73859 G 10/29-16 99 67 20 81 N 12 1 4769 NW 20 79213 G 10/29-17 99 67 20 83 NW 14 1 4710 NW 21 84568 G 10/29-18 90 39 19 88 NW 16 25 2 1 N21 4652 NW 22 89922 G 10/29-19 90 39 19 94 NW 17 1 4442 NW 23 88265 G 10/29-20 90 39 18 92 NW 17 1 4232 NW 24 86608 G 10/29-21 90 39 18 90 W 17 28 2 1 N32 4022 NW 24 84952 G 10/29-22 90 39 17 90 W 16 1 3792 NW 23 77595 G 10/29-23 90 39 17 88 W 15 1 3562 NW 23 70238 G 10/30-00 83 26 17 87 W 15 24 2 1 N28 3332 NW 22 62881 G 10/30-01 83 26 17 87 W 15 1 3238 NW 23 65624 G 10/30-02 83 26 17 84 W 17 1 3144 W 25 68366 G 10/30-03 83 26 17 79 W 18 30 2 1 N30 3050 W 26 71109 G 10/30-04 83 26 16 74 W 21 1 2771 W 29 67704 G 10/30-05 83 26 16 71 W 23 1 2491 W 30 64299 G 10/30-06 80 15 16 70 W 24 39 3 1 N54 2212 W 32 60894 G 10/30-07 80 15 16 73 W 24 1 2163 W 31 57845 F 10/30-08 80 15 19 71 W 23 1 2113 W 30 54795 F 10/30-09 80 15 22 68 W 22 35 2 1 N70 2064 NW 29 51746 F 10/30-10 80 15 25 64 W 22 1 2173 NW 30 56537 F 10/30-11 80 15 27 63 W 22 1 2282 NW 31 61329 G 10/30-12 80 15 29 62 W 22 35 2 1 N77 2391 NW 32 66120 G 10/30-13 80 15 30 60 W 21 1 2259 NW 30 59793 F 10/30-14 80 15 30 58 W 20 1 2127 NW 29 53465 F 10/30-15 80 15 31 55 W 18 30 2 1 N62 1995 NW 28 47138 F 10/30-16 80 15 30 53 W 17 1 1814 NW 26 41734 F 10/30-17 80 15 30 51 W 16 1 1633 NW 25 36329 P 10/30-18 55 4 29 50 W 16 25 2 1 N61 1452 NW 24 30925 P 10/30-19 55 4 28 52 W 16 1 1242 NW 23 25739 P 10/30-20 55 4 27 52 W 16 1 1032 NW 23 20553 P 10/30-21 55 4 27 52 W 16 25 2 1 N61 823 NW 22 15366 P 10/30-22 55 4 27 53 W 16 1 741 NW 20 12829 P 10/30-23 55 4 26 53 W 16 1 659 W 17 10292 P 10/31-00 55 4 26 54 W 16 25 2 1 NW47 577 W 15 7754 P 10/31-01 55 4 26 54 W 16 1 560 W 15 7301 P 10/31-02 55 4 26 55 W 16 1 543 W 15 6847 P 10/31-03 55 4 25 55 W 16 25 2 1 N36 526 W 14 6394 P 10/31-04 55 4 25 56 W 16 1 434 W 14 5312 P 10/31-05 55 4 25 57 W 15 1 342 W 14 4231 P 10/31-06 46 10 25 57 W 15 24 2 1 NW29 250 W 15 3150 P 10/31-07 46 10 25 57 W 15 1 474 W 15 6753 P 10/31-08 46 10 27 53 W 15 1 699 W 16 10355 P 10/31-09 46 10 30 47 W 15 24 3 1 NW25 923 W 17 13958 P 10/31-10 46 10 34 42 W 15 1 1132 W 18 18888 P 10/31-11 46 10 36 38 W 14 1 1341 W 20 23818 P 10/31-12 46 10 37 37 W 14 22 3 1 NW26 1551 W 22 28748 P 10/31-13 46 10 38 36 W 14 1 1526 W 21 28081 P 10/31-14 46 10 39 36 W 14 1 1501 W 21 27415 P 10/31-15 46 10 39 37 W 14 22 3 1 NW33 1476 W 21 26748 P 10/31-16 46 10 39 38 W 15 1 1310 W 20 22236 P 10/31-17 46 10 38 40 W 15 1 1145 W 17 17724 P 10/31-18 51 3 36 43 W 13 13 3 1 NW35 979 W 15 13212 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...MATT DUTTON REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091029.DEERM.01/BOU