FNUS75 KBOU 290105 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR EVERGREEN 6B...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 706 PM MDT WED OCT 28 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE BURN AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH AN UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY AT SUNSET. AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE DAY. THE STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY EVENING ...BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....12-18. MAX HUMIDITY........100%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 10-16 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW UNTIL 1200...THEN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....23-28. MIN HUMIDITY........60-70%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 7-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 16-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 0800...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 2400...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....12-17. MAX HUMIDITY........90-100%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST 16-26 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 21-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4800 FT AGL UNTIL 2100. 1000-1400 FT AGL AFTER 2400. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2200. POOR AFTER 2400. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....33-38. MIN HUMIDITY........40-50%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST 17-27 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN NORTHWEST 11-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 21-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-2000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS COOL. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR EVERGREEN 6B. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/28-18 100 100 24 80 NE 15 24 2 1 S40 4144 NE 14 49632 F 10/28-19 100 100 22 86 N 14 1 3882 NE 15 48647 F 10/28-20 100 100 20 91 N 13 1 3619 NE 15 47662 F 10/28-21 100 100 19 94 N 12 12 2 1 S29 3357 NE 16 46677 F 10/28-22 100 100 18 95 N 10 1 3112 NE 15 40185 F 10/28-23 100 100 18 94 N 9 1 2867 NE 14 33694 P 10/29-00 100 100 17 93 N 8 8 2 1 S40 2621 NE 12 27202 P 10/29-01 100 100 17 92 N 9 1 2704 NE 14 32781 P 10/29-02 100 100 16 92 N 10 1 2787 NE 16 38360 P 10/29-03 100 100 16 92 N 10 10 2 1 S24 2869 N 17 43939 F 10/29-04 100 100 16 92 N 9 1 2722 N 18 42514 F 10/29-05 100 100 15 90 N 8 1 2575 N 18 41088 F 10/29-06 99 80 15 91 N 10 10 2 1 E10 2428 N 18 39663 P 10/29-07 99 80 15 88 N 10 1 2921 N 18 46363 F 10/29-08 99 80 16 82 N 10 1 3414 N 18 53063 F 10/29-09 99 80 19 73 N 10 10 2 1 NE13 3907 N 17 59763 F 10/29-10 99 80 22 65 N 10 1 4201 N 17 63518 G 10/29-11 99 80 23 60 N 10 1 4495 N 17 67272 G 10/29-12 99 75 25 57 N 10 10 2 1 E12 4789 N 17 71027 G 10/29-13 99 75 25 56 N 9 1 4844 N 18 77357 G 10/29-14 99 75 26 56 N 9 1 4898 N 20 83688 G 10/29-15 99 75 26 57 N 9 9 2 1 N10 4952 NW 21 90018 G 10/29-16 99 75 25 60 N 9 1 4880 NW 22 90375 G 10/29-17 99 75 25 64 N 8 1 4809 NW 22 90732 G 10/29-18 85 28 23 71 N 7 7 2 1 N24 4738 NW 22 91089 G 10/29-19 85 28 21 82 N 9 1 4231 NW 22 81804 G 10/29-20 85 28 20 92 NW 10 1 3723 NW 23 72520 G 10/29-21 85 28 19 94 NW 13 13 2 1 N32 3216 NW 23 63235 G 10/29-22 85 28 18 95 NW 15 1 2643 NW 23 52297 F 10/29-23 85 28 17 92 W 17 1 2071 NW 23 41359 F 10/30-00 64 19 17 89 W 20 31 2 1 N32 1498 NW 23 30421 P 10/30-01 64 19 17 87 W 21 1 1353 NW 25 29308 P 10/30-02 64 19 16 85 W 22 1 1208 NW 28 28195 P 10/30-03 64 19 16 82 W 22 35 2 1 NW26 1063 NW 29 27082 P 10/30-04 64 19 15 80 W 23 1 992 NW 31 26307 P 10/30-05 64 19 15 78 W 24 1 921 NW 32 25532 P 10/30-06 58 10 15 77 W 24 39 2 1 N35 850 NW 33 24758 P 10/30-07 58 10 15 77 W 24 1 1009 NW 32 27376 P 10/30-08 58 10 18 70 W 24 1 1168 NW 30 29995 P 10/30-09 58 10 22 61 W 23 37 2 1 N61 1327 NW 29 32614 P 10/30-10 58 10 27 53 W 22 1 1559 NW 26 35131 P 10/30-11 58 10 30 48 W 20 1 1792 NW 24 37647 P 10/30-12 58 10 32 46 W 18 30 2 1 N81 2025 NW 23 40164 F 10/30-13 58 10 33 44 W 17 1 2019 NW 22 38457 P 10/30-14 58 10 34 44 W 15 1 2013 N 21 36751 P 10/30-15 58 10 35 43 NW 14 22 2 1 N66 2007 N 20 35044 P 10/30-16 58 10 34 43 W 13 1 1596 N 20 27178 P 10/30-17 58 10 33 45 W 12 1 1185 NW 18 19312 P 10/30-18 52 5 31 48 W 12 12 2 1 N64 774 NW 17 11446 P 10/30-19 52 5 29 53 W 13 1 578 NW 16 8414 P 10/30-20 52 5 27 58 W 14 1 381 NW 15 5382 P 10/30-21 52 5 26 60 W 15 24 2 1 N59 185 NW 15 2350 P 10/30-22 52 5 25 63 W 15 1 165 NW 14 1978 P 10/30-23 52 5 24 65 W 14 1 145 W 13 1605 P 10/31-00 52 5 24 67 W 14 22 2 1 N45 126 W 12 1233 P 10/31-01 52 5 23 69 W 14 1 121 W 12 1196 P 10/31-02 52 5 23 71 W 14 1 117 W 12 1159 P 10/31-03 52 5 22 72 W 14 22 2 1 N37 113 W 12 1122 P 10/31-04 52 5 22 73 W 14 1 105 W 12 1084 P 10/31-05 52 5 22 74 W 15 1 98 W 13 1046 P 10/31-06 48 9 21 76 W 15 24 2 1 N28 91 W 13 1008 P 10/31-07 48 9 21 75 W 14 1 106 W 13 1140 P 10/31-08 48 9 25 64 W 14 1 121 W 13 1272 P 10/31-09 48 9 30 51 W 13 13 2 1 NW22 136 W 12 1405 P 10/31-10 48 9 36 41 W 13 1 340 W 15 5184 P 10/31-11 48 9 40 35 W 14 1 544 W 17 8963 P 10/31-12 48 9 42 32 W 14 22 4 1 NW20 748 W 20 12743 P 10/31-13 48 9 44 30 W 14 1 863 W 21 16127 P 10/31-14 48 9 44 30 W 14 1 978 NW 23 19511 P 10/31-15 48 9 45 30 W 14 22 4 1 NW25 1093 NW 24 22896 P 10/31-16 48 9 44 31 W 16 1 871 NW 22 17540 P 10/31-17 48 9 43 34 W 17 1 649 NW 21 12185 P 10/31-18 42 3 40 38 W 14 22 3 1 NW31 426 NW 18 6830 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...BILL ALAKAI REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091029.EVERG.01/BOU