FNUS75 KBOU 290016 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR MOUNT FALCON SLASH PILES...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 616 PM MDT WED OCT 28 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE BURN AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH AN UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE FOUR CORNERS NOW INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY THURSDAY AT SUNSET. AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AND DAY. THE STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW TO FORECAST AREA INTO THURSDAY EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....15-20. MAX HUMIDITY........100%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 9-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3400 FT AGL UNTIL 2100...THEN 1600-1800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW UNTIL 1200...THEN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER 1200. MAX TEMPERATURE.....22-28. MIN HUMIDITY........70-80%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 20-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800. GOOD AFTER 1000. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 2400. MIN TEMPERATURE.....14-19. MAX HUMIDITY........90-100%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTH 4-7 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN WEST 12-20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 16-24 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3200 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 400-1400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2100. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....30-35. MIN HUMIDITY........50-60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 14-24 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN 8-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 24-28 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......400-1400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR MOUNT FALCON SLASH PILES. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 10/28-18 100 99 24 90 N 13 13 2 1 S39 3489 NE 23 68379 G 10/28-19 100 99 22 93 N 13 1 2942 NE 23 58780 F 10/28-20 100 99 21 95 N 13 1 2395 NE 24 49182 F 10/28-21 100 99 21 96 N 13 13 2 1 S26 1848 NE 24 39583 P 10/28-22 100 99 20 97 N 12 1 1770 N 23 36391 P 10/28-23 100 99 20 95 N 12 1 1693 N 23 33200 P 10/29-00 100 100 19 95 N 10 10 2 1 S36 1615 N 22 30008 P 10/29-01 100 100 19 94 N 10 1 1620 N 22 31138 P 10/29-02 100 100 19 92 N 9 1 1626 N 23 32267 P 10/29-03 100 100 19 91 N 9 9 2 1 S18 1631 N 23 33397 P 10/29-04 100 100 18 89 N 8 1 1606 N 24 33750 P 10/29-05 100 100 18 87 N 7 1 1581 N 25 34103 P 10/29-06 97 80 18 87 N 10 10 2 1 NE10 1556 N 25 34457 P 10/29-07 97 80 18 86 N 10 1 2040 N 25 43242 F 10/29-08 97 80 19 83 N 10 1 2523 N 24 52027 F 10/29-09 97 80 21 78 N 10 10 2 1 NE14 3006 N 23 60813 G 10/29-10 97 80 22 73 N 10 1 3369 N 23 66522 G 10/29-11 97 80 24 70 N 10 1 3732 N 22 72231 G 10/29-12 96 77 24 69 N 10 10 2 1 NE12 4094 N 22 77940 G 10/29-13 96 77 25 68 N 9 1 4134 N 23 81021 G 10/29-14 96 77 25 67 N 9 1 4174 N 23 84101 G 10/29-15 96 77 25 67 N 9 9 2 1 N15 4214 N 24 87182 G 10/29-16 96 77 25 69 N 9 1 3869 N 22 74956 G 10/29-17 96 77 24 72 N 7 1 3524 N 20 62730 G 10/29-18 85 26 23 78 NE 5 5 2 1 N25 3180 N 18 50504 F 10/29-19 85 26 22 88 N 5 1 2277 N 16 35578 P 10/29-20 85 26 20 95 NW 5 1 1397 NW 15 20686 P 10/29-21 85 26 20 97 W 6 6 2 1 N30 517 NW 13 5794 P 10/29-22 85 26 19 97 W 8 1 492 NW 16 6531 P 10/29-23 85 26 19 94 W 12 1 466 NW 18 7269 P 10/30-00 63 7 18 91 W 14 22 2 1 N30 441 NW 21 8007 P 10/30-01 63 7 18 90 W 15 1 429 NW 22 8303 P 10/30-02 63 7 18 87 W 16 1 416 W 24 8599 P 10/30-03 63 7 18 85 W 16 25 2 1 NW24 404 W 25 8896 P 10/30-04 63 7 17 83 W 17 1 392 W 26 9122 P 10/30-05 63 7 17 81 W 18 1 381 W 29 9348 P 10/30-06 53 4 17 80 W 20 31 2 1 N29 370 W 30 9574 P 10/30-07 53 4 17 80 W 21 1 570 W 30 14384 P 10/30-08 53 4 20 73 W 21 1 770 NW 29 19195 P 10/30-09 53 4 23 64 W 20 31 2 1 N53 970 NW 29 24005 P 10/30-10 53 4 27 56 W 18 1 1144 NW 25 24830 P 10/30-11 53 4 30 52 W 16 1 1317 NW 23 25654 P 10/30-12 53 4 32 50 W 14 22 2 1 N71 1491 NW 21 26478 P 10/30-13 53 4 33 49 W 13 1 1406 NW 20 23831 P 10/30-14 53 4 33 48 W 13 1 1320 NW 18 21183 P 10/30-15 53 4 34 48 W 12 12 2 1 N59 1235 NW 17 18535 P 10/30-16 53 4 33 49 W 9 1 918 NW 15 13249 P 10/30-17 53 4 33 51 W 8 1 600 NW 13 7962 P 10/30-18 50 0 31 55 W 7 7 2 1 N61 283 W 10 2675 P 10/30-19 50 0 29 61 W 8 1 239 W 12 2355 P 10/30-20 50 0 27 66 W 10 1 195 W 13 2035 P 10/30-21 50 0 27 68 W 13 13 2 1 N60 150 W 13 1715 P 10/30-22 50 0 26 71 W 14 1 135 W 13 1481 P 10/30-23 50 0 25 73 W 14 1 119 W 12 1247 P 10/31-00 50 0 25 76 W 14 22 2 1 N51 103 W 12 1013 P 10/31-01 50 0 24 77 W 14 1 101 W 12 982 P 10/31-02 50 0 24 79 W 14 1 98 W 12 951 P 10/31-03 50 0 23 80 W 14 22 2 1 N41 95 W 12 920 P 10/31-04 50 0 23 81 W 14 1 91 W 12 889 P 10/31-05 50 0 23 82 W 14 1 87 W 12 858 P 10/31-06 46 6 22 83 W 14 22 2 1 N29 83 W 12 826 P 10/31-07 46 6 23 82 W 13 1 93 W 12 881 P 10/31-08 46 6 26 72 W 13 1 104 W 10 935 P 10/31-09 46 6 30 59 W 12 12 2 1 NW21 114 W 10 990 P 10/31-10 46 6 35 48 W 10 1 161 W 12 1628 P 10/31-11 46 6 39 41 W 10 1 207 W 13 2267 P 10/31-12 46 6 41 38 W 9 9 3 1 W18 254 W 13 2906 P 10/31-13 46 6 42 36 W 9 1 288 W 14 3579 P 10/31-14 46 6 43 36 W 9 1 321 W 15 4253 P 10/31-15 46 6 44 36 W 9 9 4 1 NW24 355 W 16 4926 P 10/31-16 46 6 43 38 W 12 1 302 W 15 4051 P 10/31-17 46 6 42 41 W 13 1 249 W 14 3175 P 10/31-18 35 3 39 45 W 10 10 3 1 NW29 196 W 14 2300 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...KEITH BOL REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091029.MOUNT.01/BOU