FNUS73 KPAH 101238 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR DREW...USFWS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 638 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 CST ON NOVEMBER 10. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE DAYS OF CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DEEP MIXING LAYERS WITH EXTREMELY DRY AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE...COULD SEE RH'S DROP OUT SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK AS THE DRY AIR MIXES DOWN. HAVE ALREADY WENT WELL BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR RH BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND MAY HAVE TO DROP EVEN MORE AS SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS TRY TO CATCH UP. IN ADDITION EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GUSTY WINDS WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT ARE UNUSUAL FOR THIS AREA. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........60 AT IGNITION...MAX 74. RH..................76 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 49 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 4 MPH AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE BECOMING 5 TO 9 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL AT IGNITION...INCREASING TO 3400-5200 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 6700-8400 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 5800 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 6 TO 12 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC MC PC PC PC MC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............60 65 68 70 71 72 72 70 65 RH..............76 66 59 55 52 53 53 57 68 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE NE N N N NE 20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 10 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 44. RH..................MAX 81 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2500-4300 FT AGL DECREASING TO 1600-2100 FT AGL IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 0 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............60 55 52 50 48 46 RH..............77 80 80 80 80 80 20 FT WIND......NE 7 NE 8 NE 8 NE 8 NE 7 NE 6 20 FT WIND GUST.10 20 20 20 10 10 HAINES INDEX....3 2 2 3 2 2 .VETERANS DAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 62. RH..................MIN 28 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........4 TO 5 OR OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-3300 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHEAST 16 TO 24 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND 13 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 6 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........MCLEAR CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............45 52 59 60 RH..............73 61 43 39 20 FT WIND......NE 6G10 NE 8G20 NE 7G10 NE 7G10 HAINES INDEX....4 5 4 5 $$ FORECASTER...HOOPER REQUESTED BY...RAYMOND PARRISH TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091110.DREW_.01/PAH