FNUS73 KPAH 101645 FWSPAH SPOT FORECAST FOR NATURE STATION...USFS LBL NAT REC AREA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1045 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009 FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1035 CST ON NOVEMBER 10. IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION... WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE DAYS OF CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY DEEP MIXING LAYERS WITH EXTREMELY DRY AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE...COULD SEE RH'S DROP OUT SIMILAR TO LAST WEEK AS THE DRY AIR MIXES DOWN. HAVE ALREADY WENT WELL BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR RH BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND MAY HAVE TO DROP EVEN MORE AS SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS TRY TO CATCH UP. IN ADDITION EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GUSTY WINDS WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT ARE UNUSUAL FOR THIS AREA. .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........63 AT IGNITION...MAX 72. RH..................62 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 40 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........WINDS NORTHEAST AT 3 MPH AT IGNITION...BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 4. MIXING HEIGHT.......3500-5000 FT AGL LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 4300-6000 FT AGL EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 2100-3200 FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 0 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 3 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TIME (CST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM SKY (%).........MC MC MC MC PC PC PC PC WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE.... TEMP............64 65 67 70 70 70 69 64 RH..............70 62 54 46 45 42 46 54 20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE N N N N 20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 20 FT WIND GUST. 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MIN 47. RH..................MAX 87 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 4 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......900-1700 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 0 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM SKY (%).........PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY PCLDY WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............61 56 54 52 50 49 RH..............71 83 87 83 79 78 20 FT WIND......NE 6 NE 6 NE 7 NE 8 NE 8 NE 8 20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 10 20 20 20 HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 4 3 2 .VETERANS DAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT). TEMPERATURE.........MAX 62. RH..................MIN 32 PERCENT. WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 11 MPH. CWR.................0 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX........2 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3700-5300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 0 TO 8 MPH INCREASING TO NORTHEAST 18 TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 22 TO 28 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON BECOMING EAST AROUND 15 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 7 MPH. TIME (CST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM SKY (%).........PCLDY CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR WEATHER COV..... WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE TEMP............48 54 59 60 RH..............74 60 51 43 20 FT WIND......NE 8G20 NE 9G20 NE 8G20 NE 8G20 HAINES INDEX....2 3 4 5 $$ FORECASTER...YORK REQUESTED BY...REGINA ROBY TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091110.NATUR.01/PAH