FNUS75 KBOU 120106 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR GOLDEN GATE SP - NOTT CRK UNIT 7...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 555 PM MST WED NOV 11 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS INCREASE IN FLOW...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY WHEN GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED THURSDAY GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE. THERE COULD STILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO BURN WITH LESS WIND IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...BUT WE STILL CANT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH IN THE MORNING DUE TO THE STRONGER DOWNSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOW HUMIDITY READINGS...AND STRONG FLOW WOULD PROVIDE FOR EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION...THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF PERHAPS 2 TO 4 INCHES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HAS INCREASED AS THE FIRST WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS A BIT SLOWER WITH POTENTIAL FOR BETTER AND LONGER LASTING UPSLOPE. ANOTHER STORM IS IN THE PICTURE FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH POSSIBLY HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....38-43. MAX HUMIDITY........31-40%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 8-15 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18-26 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3800-4800 FT AGL UNTIL 1800...DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL AFTER 2000. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1800...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (55-60%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....55. MIN HUMIDITY........20-23%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 10-18 MPH...INCREASING TO 12-22 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH AFTER 1200. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 36-52 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0800...THEN FAIR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1000...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100... THEN EXCELLENT. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW UNTIL 2300...THEN SNOW LIKELY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....31. MAX HUMIDITY........66%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. SOUTHWEST 14-24 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 36-48 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN SOUTHWEST 17-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2200 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 400-1000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2000. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....34. MIN HUMIDITY........53%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTH 10-16 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN NORTHEAST 7-11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1200...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 13 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. NOT AS COOL. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR GOLDEN GATE SP - NOTT CRK UNIT 7. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/11-17 71 0 55 20 W 8 12 4 1 SW29 5055 W 25 112939 V 11/11-18 71 0 52 22 W 8 1 3524 W 22 77290 G 11/11-19 71 0 50 25 W 8 1 1993 SW 18 41641 F 11/11-20 71 0 48 26 W 8 12 3 1 W33 462 SW 15 5992 P 11/11-21 71 0 47 27 W 8 1 433 SW 17 6204 P 11/11-22 71 0 46 28 W 8 1 404 W 18 6416 P 11/11-23 71 0 45 28 W 9 13 3 1 W55 375 W 21 6628 P 11/12-00 71 0 45 29 W 10 1 386 W 23 7697 P 11/12-01 71 0 45 29 W 11 1 398 W 25 8765 P 11/12-02 71 0 44 29 W 11 15 3 1 SW49 410 W 28 9833 P 11/12-03 71 0 43 32 W 11 1 413 W 29 10356 P 11/12-04 71 0 42 34 W 11 1 417 W 30 10879 P 11/12-05 66 0 43 32 W 11 17 3 1 W47 421 W 31 11402 P 11/12-06 66 0 45 31 W 12 1 776 W 36 26149 P 11/12-07 66 0 46 30 W 11 1 1131 W 39 40896 F 11/12-08 66 0 47 29 W 11 20 3 1 SW37 1486 W 43 55643 F 11/12-09 60 0 49 27 SW 15 1 2124 W 46 87359 G 11/12-10 56 0 52 24 SW 16 1 2763 W 48 119075 V 11/12-11 56 0 53 22 SW 16 26 4 1 SW37 3402 W 51 150791 E 11/12-12 56 0 54 22 SW 17 1 3554 W 51 157610 E 11/12-13 56 0 55 22 SW 17 1 3705 W 51 164429 E 11/12-14 56 0 55 22 SW 20 29 4 1 W54 3857 W 51 171249 E 11/12-15 56 0 55 23 SW 20 1 3588 W 51 158995 E 11/12-16 60 0 53 26 SW 18 1 3320 W 51 146742 V 11/12-17 62 44 50 30 SW 16 23 4 1 SW49 3052 W 51 134488 V 11/12-18 64 44 46 41 W 20 1 2242 W 48 97711 G 11/12-19 64 44 43 45 W 24 1 1432 W 47 60933 G 11/12-20 64 44 39 46 W 24 35 3 1 SW45 622 W 45 24155 P 11/12-21 64 44 37 48 W 24 1 568 W 41 20654 P 11/12-22 64 44 37 50 W 23 1 515 W 38 17152 P 11/12-23 99 59 36 51 W 22 35 3 1 SW48 461 W 35 13650 P 11/13-00 99 59 35 53 W 22 1 448 W 30 11780 P 11/13-01 99 59 35 55 W 22 1 435 W 26 9911 P 11/13-02 99 59 34 57 SW 22 33 3 1 SW52 422 W 22 8041 P 11/13-03 99 59 33 59 SW 21 1 645 SW 21 10603 P 11/13-04 99 59 33 60 SW 18 1 869 SW 18 13165 P 11/13-05 98 66 32 62 SW 16 24 3 1 SW46 1092 SW 16 15727 P 11/13-06 98 66 32 64 S 14 1 1575 SW 15 18456 P 11/13-07 98 66 31 66 S 14 1 2058 S 13 21185 P 11/13-08 98 66 32 65 S 13 20 3 1 SW43 2541 S 10 23913 P 11/13-09 98 66 32 63 S 13 1 2988 S 12 29017 P 11/13-10 98 66 33 61 S 13 1 3434 SW 12 34121 P 11/13-11 94 62 33 60 S 12 17 3 1 SW40 3881 SW 12 39225 P 11/13-12 94 62 34 58 S 12 1 3914 SW 14 46761 F 11/13-13 94 62 34 56 SE 10 1 3947 W 16 54298 F 11/13-14 94 62 34 54 SE 9 9 3 1 SW48 3980 W 18 61834 G 11/13-15 94 62 33 53 E 8 1 3578 W 17 54950 F 11/13-16 94 62 33 53 NE 9 1 3176 W 17 48067 F 11/13-17 88 42 31 57 N 9 9 3 1 W49 2774 W 17 41183 F 11/13-18 88 42 29 61 N 9 1 2205 W 17 33044 P 11/13-19 88 42 27 64 NW 9 1 1636 W 17 24905 P 11/13-20 88 42 27 65 NW 10 16 3 1 W36 1067 W 18 16766 P 11/13-21 88 42 26 67 W 10 1 932 W 18 14832 P 11/13-22 88 42 26 69 W 10 1 796 W 18 12898 P 11/13-23 73 17 25 70 SW 10 16 3 1 W22 661 W 20 10964 P 11/14-00 73 17 25 70 SW 10 1 599 W 18 9878 P 11/14-01 73 17 25 71 SW 10 1 537 W 18 8793 P 11/14-02 73 17 24 72 SW 10 16 3 1 W23 475 W 18 7707 P 11/14-03 73 17 24 72 SW 9 1 435 W 18 7088 P 11/14-04 73 17 24 72 SW 9 1 395 W 18 6468 P 11/14-05 75 26 24 73 S 9 9 4 1 W33 355 W 18 5849 P 11/14-06 75 26 24 73 S 9 1 400 W 20 6787 P 11/14-07 75 26 24 72 S 9 1 444 W 20 7725 P 11/14-08 75 26 25 67 S 10 16 3 1 W40 489 W 21 8663 P 11/14-09 75 26 27 61 S 10 1 1701 W 20 27165 P 11/14-10 75 26 29 57 S 10 1 2913 W 18 45667 F 11/14-11 89 40 29 54 SE 10 16 3 1 W43 4125 W 18 64169 G 11/14-12 89 40 30 52 SE 10 1 4408 W 21 78465 G 11/14-13 89 40 30 51 SE 10 1 4691 W 23 92761 G 11/14-14 89 40 30 49 E 9 9 4 1 W41 4975 W 25 107058 V 11/14-15 89 40 30 49 E 9 1 4812 W 25 105426 V 11/14-16 89 40 29 50 N 10 1 4649 W 25 103795 V 11/14-17 88 47 27 54 N 12 17 3 1 W32 4486 W 26 102164 V KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...ALLEN GALLAMORE REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091112.GOLDE.01/BOU