FNUS75 KBOU 120552 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR GORE LAKES RX PILES...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1152 PM MST WED NOV 11 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE BURKE/SPRING CREEK DRAINAGE WILL ALLOW THESE WINDS TO REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE. INCREASE IN FLOW...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE...SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY WHEN GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE MILD WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY READINGS AS SOME DOWNSLOPING WILL OCCUR...AND STRONG FLOW WOULD PROVIDE FOR VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSION DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....32. MAX HUMIDITY........70%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 5-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 1700...THEN RAIN LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....48. MIN HUMIDITY........44%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 12-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 17-28 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN 36-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1800 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 4800-5800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1200...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1700...THEN VERY GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 2300...THEN SNOW LIKELY. MIN TEMPERATURE.....28. MAX HUMIDITY........82%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 13-21 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 20-28 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN WEST 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-3800 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 2200-3200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2200. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1700...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....35. MIN HUMIDITY........56%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 8-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4600-5600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 0900...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. .SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 17. HIGHS AROUND 30. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 17. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR GORE LAKES RX PILES. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/11-21 86 0 37 48 SW 6 1 217 SW 14 2507 P 11/11-22 86 0 36 51 SW 6 1 217 SW 13 2454 P 11/11-23 86 0 36 54 SW 5 7 3 1 W54 218 SW 13 2400 P 11/12-00 86 0 35 57 SW 5 1 217 SW 12 2253 P 11/12-01 86 0 35 59 SW 4 1 216 SW 12 2106 P 11/12-02 86 0 34 61 CALM 5 2 1 SW56 215 SW 10 1959 P 11/12-03 86 0 34 63 CALM 1 219 SW 10 1936 P 11/12-04 86 0 33 66 CALM 1 222 SW 10 1913 P 11/12-05 71 10 33 68 CALM 5 3 1 SW47 226 SW 9 1890 P 11/12-06 71 10 34 69 SW 7 1 304 SW 12 3409 P 11/12-07 71 10 35 70 SW 8 1 381 SW 14 4927 P 11/12-08 71 10 36 68 SW 8 12 2 1 SW33 458 SW 16 6446 P 11/12-09 71 10 39 61 SW 10 1 2018 SW 22 51777 F 11/12-10 71 10 43 52 SW 12 1 3577 SW 26 97108 G 11/12-11 71 22 45 49 SW 14 20 2 1 SW63 5136 SW 32 142439 V 11/12-12 71 22 47 49 SW 16 1 5503 SW 35 167173 E 11/12-13 71 22 48 47 SW 17 1 5869 SW 37 191907 E 11/12-14 71 22 48 45 SW 18 25 2 1 SW64 6235 SW 40 216641 E 11/12-15 71 22 47 45 SW 17 1 5687 SW 38 191733 E 11/12-16 71 22 46 47 W 15 1 5138 SW 37 166824 E 11/12-17 100 58 44 49 W 13 17 2 1 SW55 4589 SW 36 141916 V 11/12-18 100 58 41 52 SW 15 1 3808 SW 32 111544 V 11/12-19 100 58 38 59 SW 16 1 3026 SW 30 81173 G 11/12-20 100 58 36 66 SW 18 28 2 1 SW56 2245 SW 26 50801 F 11/12-21 100 58 34 70 SW 18 1 2150 SW 23 43900 F 11/12-22 100 58 34 72 SW 18 1 2054 SW 21 37000 P 11/12-23 100 69 33 75 SW 17 26 2 1 SW64 1959 SW 17 30100 P 11/13-00 100 69 32 76 SW 17 1 2119 SW 16 29157 P 11/13-01 100 69 32 77 SW 17 1 2278 SW 15 28215 P 11/13-02 100 69 31 78 SW 17 26 2 1 SW64 2438 SW 13 27272 P 11/13-03 100 69 31 78 SW 16 1 2661 W 13 29668 P 11/13-04 100 69 30 78 SW 14 1 2884 W 13 32064 P 11/13-05 94 57 30 79 SW 13 20 2 1 SW58 3107 W 13 34460 P 11/13-06 94 57 30 80 W 12 1 3391 W 14 40195 F 11/13-07 94 57 29 82 W 12 1 3675 W 14 45930 F 11/13-08 94 57 30 79 W 12 17 2 1 SW47 3959 W 15 51665 F 11/13-09 94 57 32 76 W 12 1 4335 W 16 63534 G 11/13-10 94 57 33 72 W 12 1 4712 W 18 75402 G 11/13-11 89 58 34 69 NW 12 17 3 1 SW54 5088 W 20 87271 G 11/13-12 89 58 34 65 NW 12 1 5319 W 21 94117 G 11/13-13 89 58 34 62 NW 10 1 5550 W 21 100962 V 11/13-14 89 58 35 59 NW 10 16 2 1 W48 5781 W 22 107807 V 11/13-15 89 58 34 57 W 9 1 5686 W 20 99525 G 11/13-16 89 58 33 56 W 9 1 5591 W 18 91243 G 11/13-17 83 40 30 60 W 8 8 2 1 W45 5496 W 17 82961 G 11/13-18 83 40 28 65 W 9 1 4707 W 16 69159 G 11/13-19 83 40 26 69 W 9 1 3918 W 16 55357 F 11/13-20 83 40 25 70 W 9 9 2 1 W31 3130 W 15 41555 F 11/13-21 83 40 25 72 W 9 1 2676 W 15 34550 P 11/13-22 83 40 24 74 W 9 1 2221 SW 14 27544 P 11/13-23 87 26 23 75 SW 9 9 2 1 W29 1767 SW 14 20539 P 11/14-00 87 26 23 76 SW 9 1 1623 SW 14 19086 P 11/14-01 87 26 23 77 SW 9 1 1479 SW 14 17633 P 11/14-02 87 26 22 77 SW 9 9 2 1 W36 1335 SW 14 16180 P 11/14-03 87 26 22 78 SW 9 1 1283 SW 14 15550 P 11/14-04 87 26 22 79 S 9 1 1231 SW 14 14919 P 11/14-05 86 52 21 81 S 9 9 2 1 W46 1179 SW 14 14289 P 11/14-06 86 52 21 84 S 9 1 1412 SW 15 18373 P 11/14-07 86 52 21 84 S 10 1 1646 SW 15 22457 P 11/14-08 86 52 23 79 S 10 16 3 1 W49 1879 SW 16 26542 P 11/14-09 86 52 26 74 S 12 1 3253 SW 20 64215 G 11/14-10 86 52 28 68 S 13 1 4627 W 23 101888 V 11/14-11 88 53 29 66 S 13 20 3 1 SW46 6001 W 26 139560 V 11/14-12 88 53 30 65 S 14 1 7028 W 28 170853 E 11/14-13 88 53 30 64 S 14 1 8054 W 29 202146 E 11/14-14 88 53 31 63 S 15 23 3 1 W41 9081 W 30 233438 E 11/14-15 88 53 30 64 S 15 1 8739 W 31 232050 E 11/14-16 88 53 29 66 SW 16 1 8396 W 32 230661 E 11/14-17 82 36 27 72 SW 17 26 2 1 W47 8054 W 32 229273 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...LANCE BROYLES REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091112.GOREL.01/BOU