FNUS75 KBOU 130325 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR MUD LAKE...BOULDER COUNTY SHERIFF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 803 PM MST THU NOV 12 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND BACK INTO THE FOOTHILLS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. SNOW WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY...WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED. SMOKE DISPERSION SHOULD STILL BE GOOD WITH ENOUGH MIXING AND A HIGH PROBABILITY OF SNOW. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONGER AND COLDER STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURE.....31. MAX HUMIDITY........72%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST 12-20 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 7-14 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 49-60 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 32-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2200-3200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 0400...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1100...THEN SNOW LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....37-40. MIN HUMIDITY........59%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 4-6 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12-18 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4000-5000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1000...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....21. MAX HUMIDITY........89%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......VARIABLE 2-6 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2800-3800 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 1200-2000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 1900...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1700...THEN SNOW LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....32. MIN HUMIDITY........58%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTHEAST 5-6 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 5-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3400-4400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1600...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR MUD LAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/12-21 86 10 41 45 W 16 1 3155 W 54 148787 V 11/12-22 86 10 38 50 W 16 1 2666 W 54 124681 V 11/12-23 94 28 37 53 W 16 28 2 1 SW61 2176 W 53 100575 V 11/13-00 94 28 36 56 W 15 1 2132 W 49 92541 G 11/13-01 94 28 36 58 W 15 1 2088 W 46 84507 G 11/13-02 94 28 35 61 W 13 17 2 1 SW55 2043 W 43 76473 G 11/13-03 94 28 34 63 W 12 1 2014 W 37 65542 G 11/13-04 94 28 33 65 W 12 1 1984 SW 31 54611 F 11/13-05 98 43 33 67 W 10 10 2 1 SW69 1955 SW 25 43680 F 11/13-06 98 43 33 69 W 8 1 2269 SW 25 48877 F 11/13-07 98 43 33 71 W 7 1 2582 SW 24 54075 F 11/13-08 98 43 34 72 E 5 5 2 1 SW61 2896 SW 23 59272 F 11/13-09 98 43 39 60 E 3 1 3687 SW 23 75016 G 11/13-10 98 43 40 59 E 4 1 4479 SW 23 90759 G 11/13-11 100 56 40 59 E 5 5 2 1 SW47 5270 SW 23 106503 V 11/13-12 100 56 40 59 E 6 1 5171 SW 24 107335 V 11/13-13 100 56 38 63 E 6 1 5072 SW 24 108166 V 11/13-14 100 56 37 67 E 5 5 2 1 SW53 4973 SW 25 108998 V 11/13-15 100 56 36 70 E 5 1 4793 SW 24 101599 V 11/13-16 100 56 35 73 NE 4 1 4614 W 23 94200 G 11/13-17 100 50 34 73 E 4 4 2 1 W33 4435 W 23 86801 G 11/13-18 100 50 31 77 CALM 1 3809 SW 13 46248 F 11/13-19 100 50 29 76 CALM 1 2870 SW 8 27203 P 11/13-20 100 50 28 71 CALM 1 2 1 SW37 1931 S 5 8158 P 11/13-21 100 50 26 74 CALM 1 1853 S 6 8641 P 11/13-22 100 50 26 77 CALM 1 1775 S 6 9123 P 11/13-23 95 40 25 79 E 2 2 2 1 SW46 1697 S 7 9606 P 11/14-00 95 40 25 80 SE 2 1 1583 S 7 9088 P 11/14-01 95 40 24 81 S 2 1 1468 S 7 8570 P 11/14-02 95 40 23 83 CALM 1 2 1 SW44 1354 S 7 8052 P 11/14-03 95 40 23 84 W 2 1 1291 S 7 7158 P 11/14-04 95 40 23 85 W 5 1 1228 S 6 6263 P 11/14-05 95 40 22 87 W 6 6 2 1 W47 1165 S 6 5368 P 11/14-06 95 40 22 89 W 6 1 1364 S 6 6918 P 11/14-07 95 40 22 89 W 7 1 1563 S 6 8468 P 11/14-08 95 40 24 83 W 7 7 2 1 SW30 1762 S 7 10019 P 11/14-09 95 40 26 75 W 8 1 2495 S 9 21989 P 11/14-10 95 40 29 69 W 8 1 3228 S 12 33959 P 11/14-11 100 40 30 65 W 8 8 2 1 S21 3960 S 14 45929 F 11/14-12 100 40 31 63 W 6 1 4147 S 14 51313 F 11/14-13 100 40 31 61 NW 3 1 4333 SW 15 56698 F 11/14-14 100 40 31 59 CALM 1 2 1 SW25 4520 SW 16 62082 G 11/14-15 100 40 31 58 N 2 1 4148 SW 13 46674 F 11/14-16 100 40 30 59 NE 3 1 3776 SW 9 31266 P 11/14-17 100 60 28 63 E 5 5 2 1 SW24 3404 SW 6 15858 P 11/14-18 100 60 26 66 E 3 1 2974 W 5 13085 P 11/14-19 100 60 25 68 E 3 1 2543 W 5 10311 P 11/14-20 100 60 24 68 E 3 3 2 1 SW16 2113 W 5 7537 P 11/14-21 100 60 23 69 E 5 1 1831 W 3 5694 P 11/14-22 100 60 23 69 E 5 1 1549 SW 2 3852 P 11/14-23 100 60 22 68 E 5 5 2 1 SW20 1267 SW 2 2009 P 11/15-00 100 60 22 69 NE 7 1 1194 S 2 2160 P 11/15-01 100 60 22 69 NE 8 1 1120 E 2 2311 P 11/15-02 100 60 21 70 NE 9 9 2 1 SW22 1047 NE 2 2462 P 11/15-03 100 60 21 71 NE 8 1 1123 NE 3 2920 P 11/15-04 100 60 21 72 NE 7 1 1199 E 3 3377 P 11/15-05 100 50 20 74 NE 7 7 2 1 SW14 1275 E 3 3835 P 11/15-06 100 50 20 76 NE 7 1 1461 E 3 4622 P 11/15-07 100 50 21 76 E 7 1 1648 E 3 5409 P 11/15-08 100 50 23 70 E 8 8 2 1 S 2 1834 E 3 6196 P 11/15-09 100 50 26 64 E 7 1 2931 E 3 9029 P 11/15-10 100 50 29 58 E 7 1 4027 E 3 11862 P 11/15-11 93 50 30 56 E 7 7 2 1 E 2 5123 E 3 14695 P 11/15-12 93 50 31 55 E 7 1 5166 E 3 16368 P 11/15-13 93 50 32 56 E 6 1 5209 N 3 18040 P 11/15-14 93 50 32 57 E 6 6 2 1 N 2 5252 N 5 19713 P 11/15-15 93 50 32 59 E 6 1 4910 N 6 23385 P 11/15-16 93 50 30 63 E 5 1 4567 N 7 27057 P 11/15-17 85 20 28 70 E 5 5 2 1 N 6 4225 N 8 30730 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...1592 STALNACKER REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091113.MUDLA.01/BOU