FNUS75 KBOU 130303 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR PELLA CROSSING...BOULDER COUNTY SHERIFF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 753 PM MST THU NOV 12 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...A RAIN/SNOW MIX...CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH A FEW HEAVIER BANDS COULD DROP AS MUCH AS ONE QUARTER INCH. COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LIMIT SMOKE DISPERSION CONSIDERABLY. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONGER AND COLDER STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER 3 AM. MIN TEMPERATURE.....38. MAX HUMIDITY........65-70%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 8-16 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN NORTHWEST 4-7 MPH UNTIL 0400...THEN NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20-28 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2800 FT AGL UNTIL 2200...THEN 200-800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2100...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN...MIXED WITH SNOW AFTER 1100. MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-48. MIN HUMIDITY........53%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST 6-11 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW UNTIL 2300... THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....27. MAX HUMIDITY........95%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......SOUTHEAST 5-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1100...THEN CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. MAX TEMPERATURE.....40. MIN HUMIDITY........52-56%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST 8-9 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 3400-4400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1500...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR PELLA CROSSING. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/12-19 68 0 58 30 W 15 1 2821 W 38 92852 G 11/12-20 68 0 55 34 W 14 20 2 1 SW28 2230 W 38 74153 G 11/12-21 68 0 51 40 W 13 1 1561 W 30 50232 F 11/12-22 68 0 47 48 W 10 1 892 W 21 26311 P 11/12-23 95 0 46 52 W 8 8 2 1 SW30 224 W 13 2390 P 11/13-00 95 0 45 55 NW 5 1 209 W 9 1747 P 11/13-01 95 0 43 58 NW 2 1 195 W 6 1104 P 11/13-02 95 0 43 61 CALM 0 2 1 SW33 181 W 3 461 P 11/13-03 95 10 42 62 CALM 1 400 W 3 1084 P 11/13-04 95 10 41 63 NE 4 1 619 SW 3 1707 P 11/13-05 97 28 40 64 NE 5 5 2 1 SW60 839 S 3 2330 P 11/13-06 97 28 41 65 NE 6 1 1295 S 6 7426 P 11/13-07 97 28 41 64 NE 7 1 1752 S 7 12521 P 11/13-08 97 28 42 64 NE 5 5 2 1 SW44 2209 S 9 17616 P 11/13-09 97 28 43 63 E 4 1 3013 S 9 24832 P 11/13-10 97 28 45 57 E 5 1 3818 S 9 32048 P 11/13-11 100 41 47 53 NE 7 7 2 1 SW38 4622 S 9 39264 P 11/13-12 100 41 46 54 NE 8 1 4224 S 9 35455 P 11/13-13 100 41 45 57 NE 9 1 3825 S 9 31646 P 11/13-14 100 41 42 62 NE 9 9 2 1 SW46 3426 S 9 27836 P 11/13-15 100 41 40 69 NE 9 1 3327 S 7 20721 P 11/13-16 100 41 38 76 NE 8 1 3227 SE 5 13606 P 11/13-17 100 50 42 65 NE 7 7 2 1 SW32 3127 SE 2 6490 P 11/13-18 100 50 38 73 SE 6 1 2670 E 3 5831 P 11/13-19 100 50 35 77 SE 3 1 2186 E 3 6633 P 11/13-20 100 50 34 75 SE 2 2 2 1 SW25 1701 E 5 7434 P 11/13-21 100 50 33 79 SE 2 1 1460 E 5 6227 P 11/13-22 100 50 32 82 SE 2 1 1219 E 5 5019 P 11/13-23 87 40 32 84 SE 2 2 2 1 SW22 978 SE 5 3812 P 11/14-00 87 40 31 86 SE 3 1 846 SE 6 3761 P 11/14-01 87 40 30 88 SE 3 1 714 SE 6 3710 P 11/14-02 87 40 30 90 SE 5 5 2 1 SW26 581 SE 7 3659 P 11/14-03 87 40 29 91 SE 3 1 543 SE 7 3349 P 11/14-04 87 40 29 92 SE 3 1 505 SE 7 3038 P 11/14-05 87 30 28 94 SE 3 3 2 1 SW26 467 SE 7 2727 P 11/14-06 87 30 28 95 SE 2 1 838 SE 7 5752 P 11/14-07 87 30 28 94 SE 2 1 1209 SE 8 8776 P 11/14-08 87 30 30 84 CALM 1 2 1 SW22 1579 SE 8 11801 P 11/14-09 87 30 33 74 E 2 1 2558 SE 9 22972 P 11/14-10 87 30 36 65 E 2 1 3537 S 10 34144 P 11/14-11 100 30 38 61 E 3 3 2 1 S20 4516 S 12 45316 F 11/14-12 100 30 39 58 E 5 1 4537 S 12 45516 F 11/14-13 100 30 39 55 E 6 1 4558 S 12 45717 F 11/14-14 100 30 39 53 E 6 6 2 1 SW25 4580 S 12 45917 F 11/14-15 100 30 39 52 E 5 1 4034 S 9 35566 P 11/14-16 100 30 38 54 E 3 1 3488 S 8 25216 P 11/14-17 100 50 35 58 E 2 2 2 1 W17 2942 SE 6 14865 P 11/14-18 100 50 33 64 E 2 1 2299 SE 6 11900 P 11/14-19 100 50 31 69 E 3 1 1656 SE 7 8934 P 11/14-20 100 50 30 72 NE 3 3 2 1 W16 1013 SE 7 5969 P 11/14-21 100 50 29 75 NE 5 1 868 SE 6 4772 P 11/14-22 100 50 29 77 NE 5 1 723 SE 6 3575 P 11/14-23 100 50 28 79 NE 6 6 2 1 W17 578 SE 5 2378 P 11/15-00 100 50 28 81 NE 8 1 518 E 6 2381 P 11/15-01 100 50 27 82 N 10 1 458 NE 6 2384 P 11/15-02 100 50 27 84 N 13 17 2 1 SW16 399 N 7 2387 P 11/15-03 100 50 26 85 N 12 1 392 N 7 2270 P 11/15-04 100 50 26 86 N 12 1 385 N 7 2154 P 11/15-05 100 40 26 88 N 9 9 2 1 W10 378 N 6 2038 P 11/15-06 100 40 25 90 NE 8 1 688 NE 6 2746 P 11/15-07 100 40 26 90 NE 6 1 998 NE 5 3454 P 11/15-08 100 40 28 85 E 5 5 2 1 S 3 1308 NE 3 4162 P 11/15-09 100 40 30 78 NE 5 1 1910 NE 3 4348 P 11/15-10 100 40 32 72 NE 5 1 2511 E 2 4533 P 11/15-11 87 40 34 70 NE 5 5 2 1 E 3 3113 SE 2 4719 P 11/15-12 87 40 34 69 NE 3 1 3229 CALM 4337 P 11/15-13 87 40 35 70 NE 3 1 3345 CALM 3955 P 11/15-14 87 40 35 70 NE 3 3 2 1 N 2 3461 CALM 3573 P 11/15-15 87 40 35 73 E 3 1 3070 CALM 4210 P 11/15-16 87 40 34 76 E 2 1 2679 N 2 4847 P 11/15-17 80 10 32 83 E 2 2 2 1 N10 2289 N 2 5484 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...1592 STALNACKER REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091113.PELLA.01/BOU