FNUS75 KCYS 102119
FWSCYS

SPOT FORECAST FOR UPPER SEPARATION CREEK...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
219 PM MST TUE NOV 10 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1330 MST ON NOVEMBER 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE FIRE SITE THROUGH SUNSET.
THEN WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND TRANSITION TO A LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY FLOW BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT TO INCREASE BACK INTO A 50 TO 60 PERCENT
RANGE. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE GUSTY THAN TODAY
WITH BETTER MIXING EXPECTED BY AROUND 1000 AM MST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO THE 23 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE BURN SITE LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY NIGHT.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT).
MIN TEMPERATURE.....33 TO 37.
MAX HUMIDITY........50 TO 59 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTY...DECREASING
                    TO 6 TO 8 MPH AFTER SUNSET.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300-2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 23 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR TO GOOD (5100-43700 KNOT-FT).

.VETERANS DAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT).
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 27 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY INCREASING
                    AROUND 1000 AM MST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH.
                    GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
                    FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4100-5900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 27 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (79200-142200 KNOT-FT).

.EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...AFTER AROUND 0.10 INCH OF PRECIPITATION AS RAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW DURING THE NIGHT.
ANOTHER 0.1 TO 0.2 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION WILL FALL
AS SNOW MAINLY DURING THE EVENING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
NIGHT IS 40 TO 50 PERCENT. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
FROM 24 TO 30 DEGREES...WITH EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
TO AROUND 80 TO 90 PERCENT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT AND DECREASE FROM 10 TO 15 MPH
TO 7 TO 10 MPH. HAINES INDEX THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE 2.

FRIDAY...GUSTY WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 8 TO 12 MPH WILL
RETURN BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. LOW CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES (40-50 PERCENT) EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 35 TO 40 DEGREES AT THE BURN
SITE FRIDAY...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT. HAINES INDEX FRIDAY WILL BE 3.

$$
FORECASTER...CARPENTER
REQUESTED BY...SJOGREN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20091113.UPPER.01/CYS