FNUS75 KGJT 162150
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BELLY ACHE PILES...USFS, WRNF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
250 PM MST MON NOV 16 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 MST ON NOVEMBER 17.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH TUESDAY FOR CONTINUED VERY
STABLE CONDITIONS AND LIGHT FLOW ALOFT. ON WEDNESDAY THE FLOW WILL
INCREASE A LITTLE AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
HOWEVER THE SURFACE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN CAPPED AND STABLE
RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF THE POOR SMOKE DISPERSAL.

.TUESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10%).
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY WINDS 0-4 MPH...BECOMING
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5200 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 1300 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 MPH.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (0-10%).
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY WINDS 0-4 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (LESS THAN 4300 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 MPH.

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20%).
20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY WINDS 0-4 MPH...BECOMING
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (MAXIMUM 13000 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......1500 IN THE AFTERNOON FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...TODD KING
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20091117.BELLY.01/GJT