FNUS75 KBOU 181428 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR MOUNT FALCON SLASH PILES...COUNTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 728 AM MST WED NOV 18 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE BURN SITE. THE COMBINATION OF AN INVERSION AND LIGHT WINDS AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL KEEP SMOKE DISPERSION IN THE POOR CATEGORY WEDNESDAY DESPITE SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES. THERE IS LITTLE HOPE FOR ANYTHING BETTER THAN FAIR SMOKE DISPERSION THURSDAY AS THE INVERSION REMAINS...THOUGH WEAKER...AND FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ONLY SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEEK UPPER DISTURBANCE. SOMEWHAT BETTER MIXING AND DISPERSION MAY DEVELOP BY THE WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT INCREASES. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....55. MIN HUMIDITY........23%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 9-15 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN SOUTHWEST 8-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....25. MAX HUMIDITY........69%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 11-17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH UNTIL EARLY MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%) UNTIL 1700...THEN SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....43. MIN HUMIDITY........42%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 8-12 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1800. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1800. COLDER. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR MOUNT FALCON SLASH PILES. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/18-07 0 0 34 50 W 13 1 145 W 9 1126 P 11/18-08 0 0 38 44 W 12 12 5 1 CALM 160 W 9 1198 P 11/18-09 0 0 43 37 W 10 1 552 W 8 3195 P 11/18-10 0 0 48 31 W 8 1 944 W 7 5191 P 11/18-11 0 0 51 29 W 6 6 5 1 S 5 1337 NW 6 7188 P 11/18-12 0 0 52 26 SW 5 1 2054 NW 7 11524 P 11/18-13 0 0 53 25 SW 2 1 2770 NW 7 15860 P 11/18-14 0 0 54 24 SW 2 2 5 1 SW13 3487 NW 7 20196 P 11/18-15 0 0 53 23 SW 5 1 2574 NW 7 15376 P 11/18-16 0 0 51 24 SW 7 1 1661 W 8 10556 P 11/18-17 23 0 46 28 W 10 10 5 1 W17 748 W 9 5736 P 11/18-18 23 0 41 33 W 12 1 554 W 10 4416 P 11/18-19 23 0 37 36 W 13 1 360 W 12 3097 P 11/18-20 23 0 36 36 W 14 22 3 1 W12 166 W 13 1777 P 11/18-21 23 0 34 37 W 14 1 154 W 13 1634 P 11/18-22 23 0 33 38 W 14 1 142 W 12 1491 P 11/18-23 23 0 32 39 W 14 22 3 1 W13 130 W 12 1347 P 11/19-00 23 0 31 41 W 14 1 130 W 12 1274 P 11/19-01 23 0 30 44 W 15 1 129 W 10 1200 P 11/19-02 23 0 29 47 W 15 24 3 1 W13 129 W 10 1126 P 11/19-03 23 0 29 50 W 14 1 154 W 9 1237 P 11/19-04 23 0 28 54 W 14 1 179 W 9 1347 P 11/19-05 50 0 26 62 W 13 13 2 1 W17 204 SW 8 1458 P 11/19-06 50 0 25 66 W 12 1 231 SW 8 1511 P 11/19-07 50 0 25 69 W 9 1 258 W 7 1565 P 11/19-08 50 0 27 66 W 8 8 3 1 W13 285 W 7 1618 P 11/19-09 50 0 31 59 SW 7 1 1167 W 7 8066 P 11/19-10 50 0 36 51 SE 6 1 2049 NW 8 14513 P 11/19-11 40 0 40 47 E 6 6 2 1 W12 2932 NW 8 20961 P 11/19-12 40 0 42 43 E 6 1 3114 NW 8 23308 P 11/19-13 40 0 43 42 E 6 1 3296 NW 9 25655 P 11/19-14 40 0 42 42 E 6 6 3 1 W17 3478 NW 9 28002 P 11/19-15 40 0 40 43 SE 5 1 2515 W 8 19696 P 11/19-16 40 0 36 48 S 3 1 1553 W 7 11389 P 11/19-17 9 0 33 53 SW 3 3 2 1 W13 590 W 6 3082 P 11/19-18 9 0 30 60 SW 6 1 460 W 7 2569 P 11/19-19 9 0 28 66 W 9 1 330 W 8 2055 P 11/19-20 9 0 28 68 W 12 12 2 1 NW21 200 W 9 1542 P 11/19-21 9 0 27 71 W 13 1 186 W 8 1396 P 11/19-22 9 0 26 74 W 12 1 172 W 8 1249 P 11/19-23 9 0 26 73 W 12 12 3 1 N26 159 W 8 1103 P 11/20-00 9 0 26 70 W 12 1 156 W 8 1096 P 11/20-01 9 0 26 65 W 12 1 154 W 8 1089 P 11/20-02 9 0 26 62 W 12 12 2 1 NW24 151 W 8 1082 P 11/20-03 9 0 26 60 W 12 1 140 W 9 1067 P 11/20-04 9 0 24 61 W 13 1 128 W 9 1051 P 11/20-05 9 0 24 58 W 13 13 3 1 NW23 117 W 10 1035 P 11/20-06 9 0 24 60 W 13 1 118 W 10 1043 P 11/20-07 9 0 24 60 W 13 1 119 W 10 1050 P 11/20-08 9 0 27 54 W 12 12 3 1 N26 120 W 10 1058 P 11/20-09 9 0 33 44 W 9 1 555 W 10 4514 P 11/20-10 9 0 40 34 W 6 1 990 W 9 7971 P 11/20-11 24 0 45 29 W 3 3 3 1 NW24 1425 W 9 11427 P 11/20-12 24 0 48 25 W 2 1 1630 W 9 13233 P 11/20-13 24 0 49 25 CALM 1 1836 W 9 15039 P 11/20-14 24 0 48 25 W 2 2 3 1 NW24 2042 W 9 16845 P 11/20-15 24 0 47 26 W 5 1 1431 W 8 11605 P 11/20-16 24 0 42 30 W 7 1 819 W 7 6364 P 11/20-17 48 0 39 34 W 9 9 5 1 NW17 208 W 6 1123 P 11/20-18 48 0 35 39 W 12 1 178 W 8 1095 P 11/20-19 48 0 33 42 W 13 1 148 W 9 1067 P 11/20-20 48 0 32 43 W 14 22 5 1 W16 118 W 10 1039 P 11/20-21 48 0 31 45 W 15 1 111 W 10 1001 P 11/20-22 48 0 30 47 W 15 1 103 W 10 964 P 11/20-23 48 0 30 47 W 15 24 5 1 W17 96 W 12 926 P 11/21-00 48 0 30 47 W 15 1 93 W 12 946 P 11/21-01 48 0 30 47 W 16 1 90 W 13 966 P 11/21-02 48 0 30 47 W 16 25 5 1 SW25 88 W 13 986 P 11/21-03 48 0 30 49 W 16 1 88 W 14 1098 P 11/21-04 48 0 28 53 W 17 1 88 W 16 1211 P 11/21-05 63 7 29 54 W 17 28 5 W23 88 W 17 1323 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...KEITH BOL REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091118.MOUNT.01/BOU