FNUS73 KJKL 181717
FWSJKL

SPOT FORECAST FOR BURN PILES...USDA - DANIEL BOONE NF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1217 PM EST WED NOV 18 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1300 EST ON NOVEMBER 18.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL STAY STALLED
OVER EAST KENTUCKY FOR MUCH OF TODAY BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH EXPECTED AT MANY
LOCATIONS. RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MINIMUM RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO GO BELOW 50 PERCENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
                    LATE AFTERNOON...THEN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS IN
                    THE EARLY EVENING.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....51 AT IGNITION...MAX 52.
MIN HUMIDITY........72 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 71 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 3 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS.
SURROUNDING RIDGE...SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.
POP.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT IGNITION...MAX 3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 2000 FT
                    AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH AROUND 4 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....8.

TIME (EST)      1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........88     85     81
WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............51     51     49
RH..............72     71     77
20 FT WIND......S 3    S 2    S 2
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS EARLY.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....MIN 37.
MAX HUMIDITY........MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
SURROUNDING RIDGE...SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH.
POP.................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EST)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
SKY (%).........78     72     65     59     59     58
WEATHER COV.....ISOLTD ISOLTD ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............45     43     41     41     40     39
RH..............89     95     100    100    100    98
20 FT WIND......S 3    S 3    S 3    SW 3   W 3    W 3
20 FT WIND GUST.5      5      5      5      5      5
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      2      2      2

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....MAX 53.
MIN HUMIDITY........MIN 65 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING WEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING LIGHT IN THE EVENING.
SURROUNDING RIDGE...WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......WEST 5 TO 10 MPH.
POP.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....24.

TIME (EST)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
SKY (%).........58     58     58     58     54     48
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
TEMP............38     41     47     51     52     49
RH..............98     88     74     67     65     72
20 FT WIND......SW 3   SW 5   SW 6   SW 6   SW 6   W 5
20 FT WIND GUST.5      10     10     10     10     10
HAINES INDEX....3      3      3      3      3      3

$$
FORECASTER...JACOBSON
REQUESTED BY...DISPATCH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20091118.BURNP.01/JKL