FNUS75 KBOU 190236 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR MUD LAKE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 733 PM MST WED NOV 18 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN DRY. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE SOME ON THURSDAY SO SMOKE DISPERSAL MAY REACH THE FAIR CATEGORY FROM 1100 TO 1500. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(35-45%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....23. MAX HUMIDITY........63%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 12-19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(40-50%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....39. MIN HUMIDITY........44%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 9-15 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN WEST 8-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2400 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 3600-4600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...FAIR UNTIL 1500...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR. MIN TEMPERATURE.....22. MAX HUMIDITY........62%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 13-19 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2000-3000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 400-1200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MAX TEMPERATURE.....44. MIN HUMIDITY........31%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 13-19 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 0600 UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS UNTIL 0600. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR MUD LAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/18-19 37 0 36 34 W 15 1 1695 W 20 29183 P 11/18-20 37 0 34 36 W 15 24 4 1 W13 1084 W 20 18388 P 11/18-21 37 0 33 38 W 15 1 924 W 18 14967 P 11/18-22 37 0 31 40 W 15 1 763 W 17 11546 P 11/18-23 37 0 31 42 W 15 24 3 1 W13 603 W 15 8125 P 11/19-00 37 0 30 44 W 16 1 535 W 15 7049 P 11/19-01 37 0 29 46 W 16 1 466 W 15 5973 P 11/19-02 37 0 28 49 W 16 25 3 1 W16 398 W 14 4897 P 11/19-03 37 0 27 51 W 16 1 370 W 14 4340 P 11/19-04 37 0 26 53 W 15 1 341 W 13 3784 P 11/19-05 47 0 25 57 W 14 22 3 1 W17 313 W 12 3227 P 11/19-06 47 0 25 61 W 14 1 511 W 12 4667 P 11/19-07 47 0 25 63 W 13 1 708 W 10 6107 P 11/19-08 47 0 27 60 W 12 12 2 1 W12 906 W 9 7547 P 11/19-09 47 0 28 60 W 9 1 1999 W 10 19331 P 11/19-10 47 0 33 51 W 7 1 3092 NW 12 31115 P 11/19-11 38 0 36 48 W 5 5 2 1 W14 4184 NW 12 42899 F 11/19-12 38 0 37 46 W 3 1 4368 NW 12 44632 F 11/19-13 38 0 39 44 W 3 1 4552 NW 12 46366 F 11/19-14 38 0 37 47 W 3 3 2 1 W15 4736 NW 12 48099 F 11/19-15 38 0 37 46 W 5 1 4070 NW 12 41270 F 11/19-16 38 0 34 52 W 7 1 3405 NW 12 34442 P 11/19-17 9 0 33 55 W 9 9 2 1 W20 3843 W 14 46548 F 11/19-18 9 0 31 59 W 10 1 2936 W 14 35437 P 11/19-19 9 0 29 62 W 12 1 2029 W 14 24326 P 11/19-20 9 0 28 62 W 13 13 3 1 N23 1123 W 14 13216 P 11/19-21 9 0 27 62 W 14 1 1142 W 15 14948 P 11/19-22 9 0 26 62 W 14 1 1162 W 16 16681 P 11/19-23 9 0 26 61 W 14 22 4 1 N28 1181 W 18 18414 P 11/20-00 9 0 25 61 W 14 1 1045 W 17 15898 P 11/20-01 9 0 25 60 W 14 1 909 W 17 13381 P 11/20-02 9 0 24 59 W 14 22 4 1 N24 773 W 16 10865 P 11/20-03 9 0 24 58 W 15 1 647 W 16 8959 P 11/20-04 9 0 24 56 W 15 1 521 W 15 7053 P 11/20-05 16 0 23 56 W 16 25 4 1 NW24 395 W 15 5148 P 11/20-06 16 0 23 57 W 16 1 432 W 14 5353 P 11/20-07 16 0 24 55 W 16 1 470 W 14 5559 P 11/20-08 16 0 27 48 W 15 24 3 1 N24 507 W 13 5764 P 11/20-09 16 0 32 43 W 14 1 1301 W 14 16275 P 11/20-10 16 0 37 40 W 14 1 2095 W 14 26786 P 11/20-11 34 0 40 40 W 13 13 3 1 N23 2890 NW 15 37297 P 11/20-12 34 0 41 38 W 12 1 2976 NW 15 40159 F 11/20-13 34 0 42 35 W 10 1 3062 NW 16 43021 F 11/20-14 34 0 43 33 W 10 10 3 1 NW20 3148 NW 17 45883 F 11/20-15 34 0 42 31 W 10 1 2565 W 15 35793 P 11/20-16 34 0 41 31 W 12 1 1982 W 14 25703 P 11/20-17 51 0 39 32 W 13 13 4 1 W22 1399 W 13 15613 P 11/20-18 51 0 36 34 W 14 1 1036 W 13 11670 P 11/20-19 51 0 34 37 W 14 1 674 W 14 7728 P 11/20-20 51 0 33 38 W 15 24 4 1 W24 311 W 14 3785 P 11/20-21 51 0 32 39 W 15 1 267 W 14 3266 P 11/20-22 51 0 32 40 W 15 1 223 W 14 2746 P 11/20-23 51 0 31 41 W 15 24 4 1 W28 178 W 14 2227 P 11/21-00 51 0 30 42 W 15 1 169 W 15 2185 P 11/21-01 51 0 30 44 W 15 1 160 W 15 2142 P 11/21-02 51 0 29 46 W 15 24 4 1 W40 150 W 16 2100 P 11/21-03 51 0 29 48 W 16 1 157 W 17 2438 P 11/21-04 51 0 29 50 W 18 1 164 W 20 2776 P 11/21-05 75 10 28 52 W 20 31 4 1 SW47 172 W 21 3114 P 11/21-06 75 10 28 55 W 20 1 220 W 22 4314 P 11/21-07 75 10 28 54 W 20 1 268 W 23 5515 P 11/21-08 75 10 31 49 W 18 30 3 1 SW44 316 W 24 6715 P 11/21-09 75 10 36 42 W 17 1 1285 W 31 45846 F 11/21-10 75 10 40 36 W 16 1 2253 W 38 84977 G 11/21-11 75 10 42 34 W 16 25 3 1 SW54 3221 W 45 124108 V 11/21-12 75 10 44 32 W 17 1 3581 W 44 134079 V 11/21-13 75 10 44 31 W 18 1 3940 W 43 144049 V 11/21-14 75 10 45 31 W 20 31 3 1 SW52 4299 W 41 154019 E 11/21-15 75 10 44 32 W 21 1 4028 W 38 136106 V 11/21-16 75 10 42 34 W 23 1 3757 W 36 118193 V 11/21-17 63 15 38 40 W 24 39 3 1 SW41 3487 W 33 100280 V KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...BOULDER COUNTY SHERIFF S OFFICE REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091119.MUDLA.01/BOU