FNUS75 KBOU 231659 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR RMNP ELK AERIAL SURVEY...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 959 AM MST MON NOV 23 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS MORNING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION TOMORROW ALONG WITH BRISK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LEAVING NORTHERN COLORADO UNDER DRY AND MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .REST OF TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY UNTIL 1700...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....25-30. MIN HUMIDITY........48-58%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. NORTHWEST 19-26 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......6600-7600 FT AGL UNTIL 1800...THEN 4500 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....VERY GOOD UNTIL 1100...THEN EXCELLENT UNTIL 1500...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1700...THEN GOOD. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 2100...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 2300. MIN TEMPERATURE.....10-16. MAX HUMIDITY........80-90%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 12-22 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3200-4000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 1000-1500 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2000. POOR AFTER 2200. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 0800...THEN MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....28-36. MIN HUMIDITY........32-40%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 12-18 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1500-2500 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH. .THANKSGIVING DAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 18. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WINDS AROUND 11 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 19. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 24 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 55 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR RMNP ELK AERIAL SURVEY. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/23-09 58 80 13 73 NW 24 1 4859 NW 28 112342 V 11/23-10 58 80 15 63 NW 23 1 6143 NW 26 135601 V 11/23-11 58 60 16 56 NW 22 35 3 1 S15 7427 NW 24 158860 E 11/23-12 58 60 17 52 NW 22 1 7697 NW 23 157277 E 11/23-13 58 60 17 50 NW 22 1 7967 NW 23 155693 E 11/23-14 50 60 17 49 NW 22 35 3 1 S 8 8237 NW 22 154109 E 11/23-15 50 60 17 49 NW 22 1 7104 NW 22 134385 V 11/23-16 50 60 16 51 NW 22 1 5971 NW 22 114661 V 11/23-17 58 20 14 56 W 21 33 3 1 N17 4838 NW 23 94936 G 11/23-18 58 20 12 60 W 20 1 4019 NW 22 78125 G 11/23-19 58 20 11 64 W 18 1 3201 NW 22 61313 G 11/23-20 73 20 11 67 W 17 28 3 1 N35 2382 NW 22 44502 F 11/23-21 73 20 10 70 W 16 1 2072 NW 20 36006 P 11/23-22 73 20 9 73 W 15 1 1762 W 17 27509 P 11/23-23 82 0 9 75 W 14 22 2 1 N52 1452 W 15 19013 P 11/24-00 82 0 9 77 W 14 1 1305 W 15 17160 P 11/24-01 82 0 8 78 W 14 1 1158 W 15 15307 P 11/24-02 75 0 8 80 W 14 22 2 1 N73 1011 W 15 13454 P 11/24-03 75 0 8 81 W 14 1 913 W 16 12355 P 11/24-04 75 0 7 82 W 15 1 815 W 16 11257 P 11/24-05 50 0 7 83 W 15 24 5 1 N69 717 W 16 10158 P 11/24-06 50 0 7 84 W 15 1 788 W 16 10728 P 11/24-07 50 0 8 79 W 15 1 860 W 15 11298 P 11/24-08 23 0 11 67 W 15 24 5 1 N54 932 W 15 11868 P 11/24-09 23 0 16 53 W 15 1 1246 W 15 15583 P 11/24-10 23 0 21 42 W 14 1 1560 W 14 19297 P 11/24-11 17 0 24 37 W 14 22 5 1 N44 1875 NW 14 23012 P 11/24-12 17 0 27 34 W 14 1 2082 NW 15 27012 P 11/24-13 17 0 27 34 W 14 1 2289 NW 15 31012 P 11/24-14 20 0 28 34 W 14 22 4 1 N40 2496 NW 16 35013 P 11/24-15 20 0 28 36 W 14 1 2164 NW 15 28955 P 11/24-16 20 0 27 39 W 13 1 1832 W 14 22897 P 11/24-17 29 0 25 44 W 13 13 4 1 N31 1500 W 13 16839 P 11/24-18 29 0 22 50 W 13 1 1291 W 13 14339 P 11/24-19 29 0 21 54 W 13 1 1082 W 13 11839 P 11/24-20 29 0 20 57 W 13 13 4 1 NW22 873 W 13 9339 P 11/24-21 29 0 19 60 W 13 1 731 W 12 7611 P 11/24-22 29 0 19 62 W 12 1 588 W 12 5884 P 11/24-23 57 0 19 63 W 12 12 4 1 N24 445 W 10 4157 P 11/25-00 57 0 18 63 W 12 1 421 W 10 3835 P 11/25-01 57 0 17 63 W 10 1 398 W 10 3513 P 11/25-02 57 0 17 63 W 10 10 4 1 NW28 375 W 10 3192 P 11/25-03 57 0 17 62 W 10 1 354 W 10 3047 P 11/25-04 57 0 16 62 W 12 1 333 W 10 2903 P 11/25-05 57 0 16 62 W 12 12 4 1 NW32 312 W 10 2759 P 11/25-06 57 0 15 65 W 12 1 344 W 10 3099 P 11/25-07 57 0 16 65 W 12 1 375 W 10 3438 P 11/25-08 57 0 18 61 W 12 12 4 1 N36 407 W 10 3778 P 11/25-09 57 0 22 54 W 12 1 905 W 13 11488 P 11/25-10 57 0 26 48 W 12 1 1403 W 15 19199 P 11/25-11 36 0 28 45 W 12 12 4 1 NW36 1901 NW 16 26910 P 11/25-12 36 0 30 42 W 12 1 1992 NW 16 28680 P 11/25-13 36 0 30 41 W 13 1 2083 NW 17 30451 P 11/25-14 36 0 31 40 W 13 13 4 1 NW38 2174 NW 17 32222 P 11/25-15 36 0 30 40 W 13 1 1860 NW 16 26487 P 11/25-16 36 0 29 41 W 13 1 1545 W 15 20752 P 11/25-17 36 0 27 44 W 13 13 4 1 N33 1231 W 14 15017 P 11/25-18 36 0 25 47 W 12 1 953 W 13 11112 P 11/25-19 36 0 23 49 W 12 1 675 W 12 7207 P 11/25-20 36 0 22 49 W 10 10 4 1 NW35 398 W 9 3302 P 11/25-21 36 0 22 50 W 10 1 349 W 9 2850 P 11/25-22 36 0 21 49 W 10 1 301 W 9 2399 P 11/25-23 36 0 21 49 W 10 10 4 1 NW31 253 W 9 1947 P 11/26-00 36 0 20 49 W 10 1 237 W 9 1810 P 11/26-01 36 0 19 50 W 10 1 220 W 9 1672 P 11/26-02 36 0 19 50 W 10 10 4 1 NW30 204 W 9 1535 P 11/26-03 36 0 19 52 W 10 1 188 W 8 1379 P 11/26-04 36 0 18 53 W 9 1 172 W 8 1224 P 11/26-05 24 0 18 55 W 9 9 4 1 NW29 157 W 8 1069 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ DANKERS...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...CRAIG BROUWER REASON FOR REQUEST...SAR .TAG 20091123.RMNPE.01/BOU