FNUS75 KBOU 271614 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR RMNP ELK SURVEY...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 914 AM MST FRI NOV 27 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO TONIGHT...WITH VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT. THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WILL BE VERY DRY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING A CHANCE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES...CLOUDS...AND A CHANCE OF SNOW. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-56. MIN HUMIDITY........10-20%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 12-18 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 20-28 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......600-1600 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 4800-5800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900. VERY GOOD AFTER 1100. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....22-30. MAX HUMIDITY........40-50%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 8-14 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 13-24 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN 8-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 800-1800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 1900. POOR AFTER 2000. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%) UNTIL 1100...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1700. MAX TEMPERATURE.....35-43. MIN HUMIDITY........30-40%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 7-8 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN SOUTH UP TO 4 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......800-1800 FT AGL UNTIL 1000...THEN 4400-5400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1200...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 15. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 16. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1800. LOWS AROUND 20. HIGHS AROUND 40. WEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR RMNP ELK SURVEY. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/27-08 0 0 30 48 W 15 23 4 1 W25 328 W 16 4741 P 11/27-09 0 0 36 40 W 15 1 1855 W 20 41534 F 11/27-10 0 0 43 31 W 15 1 3382 W 23 78327 G 11/27-11 3 0 47 28 W 15 23 4 1 SW28 4909 W 26 115120 V 11/27-12 3 0 50 25 W 14 1 5197 W 26 121700 V 11/27-13 3 0 51 23 W 13 1 5486 W 26 128279 V 11/27-14 3 0 53 21 W 12 17 4 1 SW28 5774 W 26 134859 V 11/27-15 3 0 52 20 W 12 1 5774 W 26 134859 V 11/27-16 3 0 50 20 W 13 1 5332 W 26 124359 V 11/27-17 13 0 46 22 W 14 21 4 1 SW29 5110 W 26 119110 V 11/27-18 13 0 42 25 W 13 1 4021 W 24 89888 G 11/27-19 13 0 38 28 W 12 1 2932 W 22 60666 G 11/27-20 23 0 36 29 W 10 16 4 1 SW26 1843 W 20 31444 P 11/27-21 23 0 33 30 W 10 1 1519 W 17 24148 P 11/27-22 23 0 32 29 W 9 1 1196 W 15 16852 P 11/27-23 43 0 30 30 W 9 9 4 1 SW21 872 W 13 9556 P 11/28-00 43 0 30 30 W 9 1 846 W 13 9190 P 11/28-01 43 0 29 32 W 8 1 820 W 13 8824 P 11/28-02 53 0 29 35 W 8 8 4 1 SW21 794 W 13 8458 P 11/28-03 53 0 28 38 W 8 1 696 W 12 6887 P 11/28-04 53 0 27 41 W 7 1 599 W 10 5316 P 11/28-05 55 0 27 44 W 7 7 3 1 SW21 502 W 8 3745 P 11/28-06 55 0 27 45 W 6 1 416 W 8 2879 P 11/28-07 55 0 27 45 W 6 1 529 W 8 3652 P 11/28-08 55 0 28 45 W 6 6 2 1 W16 642 W 8 4424 P 11/28-09 55 0 31 42 W 5 1 2160 W 8 17235 P 11/28-10 55 0 34 38 SW 2 1 3679 W 9 30045 P 11/28-11 71 6 36 39 CALM 1 2 1 SW17 5198 W 9 42855 F 11/28-12 71 6 37 38 CALM 1 5258 W 9 44365 F 11/28-13 71 6 37 38 S 2 1 5318 W 10 45874 F 11/28-14 71 6 36 39 S 2 2 2 1 SW23 5379 W 10 47384 F 11/28-15 71 6 35 41 CALM 1 5109 W 10 43597 F 11/28-16 71 6 32 45 CALM 1 4839 W 9 39810 P 11/28-17 87 25 30 57 CALM 1 2 1 SW29 4569 W 9 36024 P 11/28-18 87 25 28 62 CALM 1 3452 W 8 25679 P 11/28-19 87 25 26 66 CALM 1 2334 W 6 15333 P 11/28-20 87 25 24 69 S 2 2 2 1 SW25 1217 W 5 4988 P 11/28-21 87 25 23 72 S 2 1 1192 W 3 4156 P 11/28-22 87 25 23 73 CALM 1 1166 W 3 3324 P 11/28-23 95 60 22 75 CALM 1 2 1 W24 1141 W 2 2492 P 11/29-00 95 60 21 77 E 2 1 1127 W 2 2021 P 11/29-01 95 60 20 80 E 2 1 1114 CALM 1549 P 11/29-02 95 60 19 82 E 2 2 2 1 W24 1101 CALM 1078 P 11/29-03 95 60 19 83 E 2 1 1072 NW 2 1722 P 11/29-04 95 60 18 84 E 2 1 1043 N 2 2366 P 11/29-05 64 50 18 86 E 2 2 2 1 W23 1014 N 3 3010 P 11/29-06 64 50 18 87 E 2 1 1406 N 3 4897 P 11/29-07 64 50 18 87 E 2 1 1799 N 5 6784 P 11/29-08 64 50 19 84 E 2 2 2 1 W22 2192 N 5 8671 P 11/29-09 64 50 21 78 E 3 1 3073 N 5 14715 P 11/29-10 64 50 24 71 E 3 1 3955 NW 6 20758 P 11/29-11 85 20 26 65 E 5 5 2 1 NW18 4836 NW 7 26802 P 11/29-12 85 20 27 55 E 5 1 4953 NW 8 32544 P 11/29-13 85 20 27 44 E 6 1 5069 NW 9 38286 P 11/29-14 85 20 27 38 E 6 6 2 1 NW22 5185 NW 9 44028 F 11/29-15 85 20 26 40 E 5 1 4972 NW 10 45653 F 11/29-16 85 20 25 47 NE 5 1 4758 NW 12 47277 F 11/29-17 37 5 23 55 NE 5 5 2 1 N25 4545 NW 13 48901 F 11/29-18 37 5 22 60 NE 5 1 3922 NW 13 42104 F 11/29-19 37 5 21 66 N 5 1 3299 NW 13 35307 P 11/29-20 37 5 19 69 N 6 6 2 1 N38 2677 NW 13 28510 P 11/29-21 37 5 19 70 NW 8 1 2228 NW 12 22589 P 11/29-22 37 5 18 68 W 9 1 1779 NW 10 16669 P 11/29-23 37 0 18 66 W 12 17 2 1 N46 1330 NW 9 10748 P 11/30-00 37 0 17 63 W 13 1 1152 NW 9 9608 P 11/30-01 37 0 17 60 W 13 1 975 NW 10 8468 P 11/30-02 37 0 16 57 W 14 21 2 1 N52 797 NW 10 7327 P 11/30-03 37 0 16 54 W 14 1 680 NW 10 6342 P 11/30-04 37 0 15 52 W 14 1 563 W 12 5357 P 11/30-05 21 0 15 47 W 12 17 2 1 N62 447 W 12 4371 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...CRAIG BROUWER REASON FOR REQUEST...SAR .TAG 20091127.RMNPE.01/BOU