FNUS75 KBOU 010042 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR GORE LAKES RX PILES...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 541 PM MST MON NOV 30 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OVER THE BURN AREA IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS AND DROP TEMPERATURES. SMOKE DISPERSAL WILL ONLY GET OUT OF THE POOR CATEGORY TO GOOD AT BEST FOR A COUPLE HOURS NEAR THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. DO NOT EXPECT REALLY GUSTY WINDS WITH THE FRONT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN DIRECTION. COLD AIR...A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE BURN AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AT LEAST WITH COLD CANADIAN AIR ADVECTED SOUTH FROM THE UPPER TROUGH. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR UNTIL 0500...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....2. MAX HUMIDITY........82%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 4-8 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1200 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TUESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%) UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1100 UNTIL 1700...THEN SNOW LIKELY. MAX TEMPERATURE.....34. MIN HUMIDITY........43%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 8-14 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2400 FT AGL UNTIL 1400...THEN 2600-3600 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1300...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1400...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1600...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TUESDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 0500...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....3. MAX HUMIDITY........83%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......WEST 8-12 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 2-8 MPH UNTIL 2400...THEN NORTHWEST 8-13 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5-12 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1800 FT AGL UNTIL 2000...THEN 200-400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .WEDNESDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1700...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....23. MIN HUMIDITY........46%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST AROUND 8 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN NORTH 8-12 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1000-1800 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 8000-9000 FT AGL AFTER 1100. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900. VERY GOOD AFTER 1300. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800. LOWS NEAR ZERO. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 0600. LOWS AROUND 1. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 10. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH. .SUNDAY...CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 9. HIGHS AROUND 19. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR GORE LAKES RX PILES. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 11/30-17 2 0 36 40 CALM 1 3 1 N16 1572 W 7 9406 P 11/30-18 2 0 32 46 CALM 1 1126 W 6 6541 P 11/30-19 2 0 28 53 CALM 1 679 W 5 3677 P 11/30-20 2 0 25 60 CALM 1 4 1 NW12 233 W 3 813 P 11/30-21 2 0 22 67 CALM 1 225 W 5 825 P 11/30-22 2 0 20 71 CALM 1 216 SW 5 838 P 11/30-23 9 0 17 75 CALM 1 4 1 W20 207 SW 5 850 P 12/01-00 9 0 14 79 CALM 1 202 SW 5 834 P 12/01-01 9 0 10 81 CALM 1 197 SW 5 817 P 12/01-02 9 0 9 82 W 2 2 4 1 W23 192 W 5 801 P 12/01-03 9 0 5 82 W 2 1 190 W 5 797 P 12/01-04 9 0 3 81 W 2 1 187 W 5 794 P 12/01-05 37 0 3 79 W 3 3 3 1 W26 184 W 5 790 P 12/01-06 37 0 6 79 W 8 1 186 W 7 1059 P 12/01-07 37 0 11 82 W 8 1 188 W 8 1327 P 12/01-08 37 0 12 75 W 8 8 3 1 W31 190 W 9 1596 P 12/01-09 37 0 19 62 W 8 1 522 W 10 4657 P 12/01-10 37 0 26 53 W 8 1 854 W 10 7717 P 12/01-11 60 10 30 47 W 9 9 3 1 W30 1186 W 10 10778 P 12/01-12 60 10 33 42 W 9 1 2092 W 14 31690 P 12/01-13 60 10 34 40 W 10 1 2999 W 18 52601 F 12/01-14 60 10 34 38 W 10 10 3 1 NW33 3906 NW 22 73513 G 12/01-15 60 10 34 39 W 10 1 3351 NW 22 62476 G 12/01-16 60 10 32 42 W 10 1 2797 NW 21 51439 F 12/01-17 78 60 27 52 NW 13 13 3 1 NW43 2242 NW 21 40403 F 12/01-18 78 60 21 63 W 9 1 1700 W 10 17488 P 12/01-19 78 60 19 70 W 7 1 993 W 9 9616 P 12/01-20 78 60 18 73 W 5 5 2 1 W51 285 W 7 1744 P 12/01-21 78 60 16 75 W 5 1 269 W 7 1630 P 12/01-22 78 60 15 77 NW 6 1 252 W 7 1516 P 12/01-23 66 60 15 78 NW 6 6 2 1 W55 235 W 7 1402 P 12/02-00 66 60 13 78 NW 7 1 239 NW 8 1576 P 12/02-01 66 60 12 77 NW 7 1 243 NW 8 1749 P 12/02-02 66 60 11 76 NW 8 8 2 1 W55 248 NW 9 1923 P 12/02-03 66 60 10 76 NW 9 1 313 NW 9 2455 P 12/02-04 66 60 8 76 NW 9 1 379 NW 9 2987 P 12/02-05 77 30 6 77 NW 9 9 2 1 W55 445 NW 9 3519 P 12/02-06 77 30 3 80 NW 8 1 906 NW 9 6622 P 12/02-07 77 30 3 83 NW 6 1 1368 NW 8 9724 P 12/02-08 77 30 8 77 NW 3 3 2 1 W43 1830 NW 8 12827 P 12/02-09 77 30 13 66 N 3 1 3823 NW 9 31708 P 12/02-10 77 30 17 58 N 3 1 5817 NW 9 50589 F 12/02-11 75 30 20 52 N 5 5 2 1 NW31 7810 NW 10 69470 G 12/02-12 75 30 21 49 N 6 1 8269 NW 12 86670 G 12/02-13 75 30 22 47 N 7 1 8728 NW 14 103869 V 12/02-14 75 30 23 46 NW 8 8 2 1 NW31 9186 NW 15 121069 V 12/02-15 75 30 22 46 NW 7 1 8698 NW 15 116793 V 12/02-16 75 30 21 48 NW 6 1 8210 NW 16 112518 V 12/02-17 75 20 17 56 NW 6 6 2 1 NW31 7723 NW 16 108242 V 12/02-18 75 20 14 62 NW 6 1 7322 NW 16 100437 V 12/02-19 75 20 12 66 NW 7 1 6921 NW 15 92631 G 12/02-20 75 20 11 67 W 7 7 2 1 NW32 6521 NW 15 84826 G 12/02-21 75 20 10 68 W 7 1 6476 NW 15 82844 G 12/02-22 75 20 9 67 W 7 1 6431 NW 15 80862 G 12/02-23 75 20 9 67 W 6 6 2 1 NW35 6387 NW 14 78880 G 12/03-00 75 20 8 66 W 5 1 6245 NW 14 76921 G 12/03-01 75 20 7 64 W 3 1 6103 NW 14 74961 G 12/03-02 75 20 6 63 W 3 3 2 1 NW37 5961 NW 14 73001 G 12/03-03 75 20 5 62 W 3 1 5832 NW 14 70934 G 12/03-04 75 20 5 62 W 5 1 5703 NW 14 68867 G 12/03-05 81 25 4 64 W 6 6 2 1 NW39 5575 NW 14 66800 G 12/03-06 81 25 3 69 W 6 1 5738 NW 14 70670 G 12/03-07 81 25 3 74 W 6 1 5902 NW 15 74540 G 12/03-08 81 25 6 73 W 6 6 2 1 NW37 6065 NW 15 78410 G 12/03-09 81 25 10 67 W 8 1 7285 NW 16 108609 V 12/03-10 81 25 14 61 W 10 1 8504 NW 18 138807 V 12/03-11 81 25 17 57 NW 13 13 2 1 NW35 9723 NW 20 169006 E 12/03-12 81 25 19 54 NW 14 1 10658 NW 20 186310 E 12/03-13 81 25 20 53 NW 15 1 11593 NW 21 203615 E 12/03-14 81 25 20 52 NW 15 24 2 1 NW29 12528 NW 21 220919 E 12/03-15 81 25 20 53 NW 14 1 11905 NW 20 201445 E 12/03-16 81 25 18 56 NW 13 1 11282 NW 18 181970 E 12/03-17 57 12 13 70 NW 12 12 2 1 N24 10659 NW 17 162496 E KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...TOM EDWARDS REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091201.GOREL.01/BOU