FNUS75 KBOU 021648 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR MUD LAKE...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 919 AM MST WED DEC 2 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...A COLD AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE INCH. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW THIS EVENING...THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FRONT RANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ON THURSDAY OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AIRMASS IS UP TO NEARLY 10000 FEET. WITH THIS IN PLACE...I DO NOT THINK GOOD DISPERSAL WILL BE ACHIEVED TODAY...IN SPITE OF WHAT THE TABLE BELOW IS INDICATING. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .TODAY... SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. LIGHT SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1200 THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW. MAX TEMPERATURE.....13-18. MIN HUMIDITY........55-60%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST 5-8 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 9-20 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......2400-3400 FT AGL UNTIL 1100...THEN 5000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .TONIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. MIN TEMPERATURE.....ZERO TO 5 ABOVE. MAX HUMIDITY........85-90%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST UP TO 4 MPH UNTIL 2100...THEN NORTHWEST 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......4800-5000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR UNTIL 2200...THEN POOR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .THURSDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1100...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. MAX TEMPERATURE.....8-13. MIN HUMIDITY........53-58%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......EAST 4-7 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8-16 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......5000-5800 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. NOT AS COLD. LOWS AROUND 2. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 16 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. .SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1800. LOWS AROUND 8. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 14. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR MUD LAKE. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 12/02-09 84 80 13 80 E 3 1 3077 W 13 39504 P 12/02-10 84 80 15 65 E 5 1 4017 W 16 61690 G 12/02-11 84 58 17 56 E 5 5 2 1 W54 4957 W 20 83875 G 12/02-12 84 58 17 53 E 5 1 5000 W 18 81485 G 12/02-13 84 58 18 53 E 5 1 5043 W 18 79095 G 12/02-14 84 58 18 54 E 5 5 2 1 W53 5086 W 17 76704 G 12/02-15 84 58 18 56 E 3 1 5052 W 17 77285 G 12/02-16 84 58 17 57 E 3 1 5018 W 18 77866 G 12/02-17 79 40 14 62 E 2 2 2 1 W45 4983 W 18 78447 G 12/02-18 79 40 13 61 CALM 1 4953 W 17 75721 G 12/02-19 79 40 11 61 CALM 1 4922 W 17 72995 G 12/02-20 79 40 11 60 NE 2 2 2 1 W36 4892 W 16 70270 G 12/02-21 79 40 10 60 NE 5 1 4899 W 16 66263 G 12/02-22 79 40 10 61 NW 8 1 4905 W 15 62257 G 12/02-23 79 40 9 61 W 10 10 2 1 W31 4912 W 14 58251 F 12/03-00 79 40 9 61 W 12 1 4909 W 13 54177 F 12/03-01 79 25 8 61 W 12 1 4906 W 12 50103 F 12/03-02 79 25 8 60 W 12 12 2 1 W26 4903 W 10 46030 F 12/03-03 79 25 7 61 W 12 1 4898 W 9 39938 P 12/03-04 79 25 7 61 W 12 1 4893 NW 8 33845 P 12/03-05 82 43 7 62 N 2 2 2 1 NW29 4888 NW 7 27753 P 12/03-06 82 43 6 58 NE 2 1 5049 NW 7 32325 P 12/03-07 82 43 6 63 E 2 1 5057 W 8 36664 P 12/03-08 82 43 7 64 SE 2 2 2 1 NW28 5065 W 9 41003 F 12/03-09 82 43 9 64 SE 2 1 5318 W 10 48966 F 12/03-10 82 43 10 64 SE 3 1 5571 W 12 56929 F 12/03-11 82 20 11 64 E 3 3 2 1 NW29 5824 W 13 64892 G 12/03-12 82 20 11 64 E 2 1 5821 W 14 71932 G 12/03-13 82 20 11 64 E 2 1 5818 W 16 78971 G 12/03-14 82 20 11 64 CALM 1 2 1 NW24 5816 W 17 86011 G 12/03-15 82 20 11 64 CALM 1 5578 W 16 77665 G 12/03-16 82 20 10 65 E 2 1 5341 W 15 69320 G 12/03-17 55 10 8 71 E 2 2 2 1 NW25 5104 W 14 60974 G 12/03-18 55 10 7 73 SE 2 1 4994 W 14 59542 F 12/03-19 55 10 6 73 SW 2 1 4884 NW 14 58109 F 12/03-20 55 10 5 71 W 2 2 2 1 NW24 4774 NW 14 56677 F 12/03-21 55 10 5 69 W 3 1 4377 NW 14 51567 F 12/03-22 55 10 5 68 W 5 1 3979 NW 14 46456 F 12/03-23 55 10 4 68 W 6 6 2 1 N18 3581 NW 14 41346 F 12/04-00 55 10 4 72 W 8 1 3163 NW 14 36904 P 12/04-01 55 10 3 77 W 9 1 2745 NW 14 32461 P 12/04-02 55 10 3 83 W 12 12 2 1 N16 2327 NW 14 28019 P 12/04-03 55 10 3 89 W 13 1 2113 NW 14 25494 P 12/04-04 55 10 2 95 W 14 1 1900 W 14 22968 P 12/04-05 63 5 2 100 W 15 24 2 1 N21 1686 W 14 20443 P 12/04-06 63 5 2 100 W 15 1 1805 W 15 23190 P 12/04-07 63 5 3 100 W 14 1 1924 NW 15 25937 P 12/04-08 63 5 6 95 W 14 22 2 1 N25 2043 NW 16 28684 P 12/04-09 63 5 12 74 W 13 1 3202 NW 17 51282 F 12/04-10 63 5 18 60 W 12 1 4361 NW 18 73880 G 12/04-11 63 5 22 51 W 12 12 3 1 N30 5520 NW 20 96478 G 12/04-12 63 5 26 45 W 13 1 5844 NW 20 100386 V 12/04-13 63 5 27 43 W 14 1 6169 NW 20 104295 V 12/04-14 63 5 28 42 W 15 25 2 1 N31 6494 NW 20 108203 V 12/04-15 63 5 27 43 W 17 1 5974 NW 22 112485 V 12/04-16 63 5 26 44 W 20 1 5454 NW 25 116768 V 12/04-17 50 5 21 51 W 21 33 2 1 NW37 4934 NW 29 121051 V 12/04-18 50 5 18 54 W 22 1 4045 NW 30 102193 V 12/04-19 50 5 16 60 W 23 1 3156 W 31 83335 G 12/04-20 50 5 15 65 W 24 39 3 1 N45 2267 W 32 64477 G 12/04-21 50 5 14 67 W 24 1 1939 W 30 52108 F 12/04-22 50 5 13 69 W 24 1 1611 W 28 39738 P 12/04-23 40 5 12 71 W 23 37 4 1 N59 1283 W 24 27368 P 12/05-00 40 5 11 74 W 23 1 1148 W 25 25266 P 12/05-01 40 5 10 78 W 22 1 1013 W 26 23163 P 12/05-02 40 5 9 82 W 22 35 4 1 NW59 878 W 28 21060 P 12/05-03 40 5 9 88 W 23 1 713 W 26 16724 P 12/05-04 40 5 8 94 W 23 1 547 W 25 12387 P 12/05-05 57 5 7 100 W 22 35 2 1 NW53 382 W 24 8051 P KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...BOULDER COUNTY SHERIFF S OFFICE REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091202.MUDLA.01/BOU