FNUS75 KGJT 021617
FWSGJT

SPOT FORECAST FOR BELLY ACHE PILES...USFS, WRNF
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
917 AM MST WED DEC 2 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1030 MST ON DECEMBER 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN
TAPER OFF IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY IN
THE NORTH FLOW...THEREFORE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER THAN TUESDAY'S. ANOTHER IMPULSE WILL BRUSH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS FROM BECOMING
VERY STABLE AND WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BURN SITE WILL AGAIN BE COLD WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.


.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90%). NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
                    AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....17-22 F.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL NOON...THEN FAIR.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 4900 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70%).
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHWEST WINDS 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE DOWNSLOPE/
                    DOWNVALLEY 0-5 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1900-5600 KNOT-FT).
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO LESS THAN 1000 FT AGL AFTER
                    SUNSET.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 MPH...BECOMING DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY
                    5 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80%). SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....13-18 F.
20-FOOT WINDS.......NORTHEAST WINDS 0-5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
                    3-7 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL NOON...THEN FAIR.
MIXING HEIGHT.......INCREASING TO 6100 FT AGL IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 10 MPH IN
                    THE AFTERNOON.

$$
FORECASTER...ELLEN HEFFERNAN
REQUESTED BY...TODD KING
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 20091202.BELLY.01/GJT