FNUS72 KMFL 021412
FWSMFL

SPOT FORECAST FOR BURNS LAKE...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
912 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009

FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0900 EST ON DECEMBER 02.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...
RESULTING IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. DUE TO
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT...A GULF COAST SEA BREEZE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...WITH PREVAILING EYE-LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FROM THE SOUTH OR SLIGHTLY WEST OF DUE SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
VERY STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT LAYER WINDS OF 20-25
KNOTS WILL OCCUR...AND SHOULD LEAD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSION
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE PRESCRIBED BURN SITE TODAY...ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WILL
BE LOW...AS LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MIXING
IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

.TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........73 AT IGNITION...MAX 84.
RH..................87 PERCENT AT IGNITION...MIN 70 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............73.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTHEAST AT 9 MPH AT
                    IGNITION...OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 15 MPH.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 15 MPH.
POP (12 HR).................20 PERCENT.
POP (12 HR).................20 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 2.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL AT IGNITION...OTHERWISE 3000-4000
                    FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 21 TO 29 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....63 INCREASING TO 89 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    DECREASING TO 79 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    INCREASING TO 90 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.

TIME (EST)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM
SKY (%).........40     40     40     40     40     90
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  S CHC  LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR TSTORM TSTORM TSTORM RNSHWR
12 HR CHC PCPN. 20     20     20     20     20     60
 6 HR CHC PCPN. 20     20     20     20     20     60
TEMP............73     80     83     84     81     77
RH..............87     76     72     70     76     85
20 FT WIND......SE 7   SE 8   S 12   S 12   S 8    S 6
20 FT WIND GUST.15     15     25     25     15     10
EYE LEVEL WIND..SE 7   SE 8   S 12   S 12   S 8    S 6
EYE LVL WIND G..15     15     25     25     15     10
MIX HGT (FT)....3000   3500   4000   4000   4000   700
MIXNG WIND......SE 21  S 26   S 29   S 29   S 25   S 18
DISP IDX (LDSI).63     89     79     79     90     16
LVORI...........4      3      3      3      3      4
LAL.............1      2      2      2      2      3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY AND
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 70.
RH..................MAX 99 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............72.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH.
POP (12 HR).................60 PERCENT.
POP (12 HR).................60 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 9 TO 18 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....14 DECREASING TO 6 EARLY IN THE MORNING.
LVORI...............6.

.THURSDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND
                    THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 83.
RH..................MIN 70 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............73.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.
EYE LEVEL WINDS.....WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH.
POP (12 HR).................60 PERCENT.
POP (12 HR).................60 PERCENT.
LAL.................4.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1800-2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500-4000 FT AGL
                    IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING WINDS........WEST 8 TO 15 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....15 INCREASING TO 27 LATE IN THE MORNING...THEN
                    INCREASING TO 51 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
                    DECREASING TO 36 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............4.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.FRIDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.
HIGHS AROUND 80. LIGHT WINDS.
.SATURDAY...
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS
AROUND 80. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH.
.SUNDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 8 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER...DIXON
REQUESTED BY...JOHN NOBLES
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED