FNUS75 KBOU 040236 FWSBOU SPOT FORECAST FOR REYNOLDS RANCH...USFS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 735 PM MST THU DEC 3 2009 IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. .DISCUSSION...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE ON FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES SHOULD BRING INCREASING WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO THE BURN SITE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER SMOKE DISPERSION ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BACK INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. ...THUNDERSTORMS IMPLY STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS... .FRIDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY BY 1500. MAX TEMPERATURE.....25-28. MIN HUMIDITY........20-24%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST 12-22 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 25-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 0900...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1100...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1400...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FRIDAY NIGHT... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(30-40%). MIN TEMPERATURE.....11. MAX HUMIDITY........57%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST 14-24 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 28-32 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......200-1000 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .SATURDAY... SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY(50-60%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER 1700. MAX TEMPERATURE.....29. MIN HUMIDITY........30%. 20-FOOT WINDS.......BREEZY. WEST 14-24 MPH UNTIL 1500...THEN 6-12 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 29-40 MPH. MIXING HEIGHT.......1400-2400 FT AGL. SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR UNTIL 1100...THEN FAIR UNTIL 1200...THEN GOOD UNTIL 1300...THEN VERY GOOD UNTIL 1500...THEN FAIR. HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH. .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SUNDAY...CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 0600...THEN SNOW LIKELY UNTIL 1800...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW. COLDER. LOWS AROUND 11. HIGHS AROUND 18. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .MONDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 6. HIGHS AROUND 17. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL 1800...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 6. HIGHS AROUND 19. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS AROUND 11. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. WEST WINDS AROUND 19 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. EXPERIMENTAL FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR REYNOLDS RANCH. +++ DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE DIGITAL DATABASE. VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY NOT AGREE WITH INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST. INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS TABLE SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE PROVIDE FEEDBACK IF THE INFORMATION IN THIS TABLE HAS BEEN REPRESENTATIVE AND/OR USEFUL. +++ FORECAST SC PP TF RH 20FT G H L 10K MIXG TRAN VENTL AJTV VALID AT % % F % WIND S I A WIND HGT WIND RATE RATNG MPH T L MPH AGL MPH KT-FT 12/04-04 45 0 0 48 W 12 1 1002 W 24 20577 P 12/04-05 13 0 -1 50 W 14 24 2 1 N46 825 W 28 19390 P 12/04-06 13 0 -1 54 W 14 1 925 W 28 22387 P 12/04-07 13 0 0 57 W 15 1 1026 W 29 25383 P 12/04-08 13 0 3 56 W 16 26 3 1 N54 1127 W 29 28379 P 12/04-09 13 0 11 42 W 17 1 1586 NW 29 40377 F 12/04-10 13 0 15 39 W 16 1 2045 NW 30 52375 F 12/04-11 63 0 18 37 W 16 29 3 1 N59 2505 NW 30 64373 G 12/04-12 63 0 20 35 W 18 1 2443 NW 29 61078 G 12/04-13 63 0 21 34 W 18 1 2380 NW 28 57783 F 12/04-14 63 0 22 33 W 18 31 4 1 N59 2318 NW 28 54488 F 12/04-15 63 0 21 34 W 19 1 2025 NW 28 48893 F 12/04-16 63 0 21 34 W 20 1 1731 NW 29 43298 F 12/04-17 35 0 19 36 W 20 37 4 1 NW52 1437 NW 30 37703 P 12/04-18 35 0 17 46 W 21 1 1090 W 30 28506 P 12/04-19 35 0 17 46 W 21 1 982 W 30 25409 P 12/04-20 35 0 16 46 W 21 35 2 1 NW46 875 W 29 22311 P 12/04-21 35 0 14 48 W 20 1 775 W 30 20064 P 12/04-22 35 0 13 50 W 20 1 675 W 31 17816 P 12/04-23 35 0 13 52 W 21 33 3 1 NW45 574 W 31 15568 P 12/05-00 35 0 13 52 W 21 1 465 W 30 12293 P 12/05-01 35 0 12 53 W 22 1 355 W 29 9018 P 12/05-02 35 0 12 53 W 23 35 3 1 NW52 246 W 26 5743 P 12/05-03 35 0 12 54 W 24 1 259 W 29 6456 P 12/05-04 35 0 12 55 W 25 1 272 W 30 7169 P 12/05-05 59 0 12 55 W 26 40 3 1 W38 285 W 32 7881 P 12/05-06 59 0 11 57 W 26 1 271 W 31 7442 P 12/05-07 59 0 12 55 W 26 1 258 W 31 7003 P 12/05-08 59 0 14 50 W 25 38 3 1 W36 244 W 31 6564 P 12/05-09 59 0 16 45 W 24 1 527 W 36 18440 P 12/05-10 59 0 20 39 W 23 1 810 W 40 30315 P 12/05-11 59 0 23 35 W 21 31 3 1 W45 1093 W 45 42191 F 12/05-12 59 0 23 37 W 20 1 2017 W 45 78602 G 12/05-13 59 0 29 30 W 17 1 2942 W 45 115013 V 12/05-14 59 0 29 32 W 15 23 3 1 W41 3866 W 45 151425 E 12/05-15 59 0 27 35 W 12 1 2845 W 36 104734 V 12/05-16 59 0 24 40 W 9 1 1824 W 25 58043 F 12/05-17 99 21 19 50 W 6 6 2 1 W66 803 W 16 11353 P 12/05-18 99 21 18 53 W 3 1 758 W 14 9525 P 12/05-19 99 21 17 56 W 2 1 713 W 13 7697 P 12/05-20 99 21 17 59 W 2 2 2 1 W68 668 W 10 5869 P 12/05-21 99 21 16 64 W 2 1 958 W 9 7393 P 12/05-22 99 21 15 70 W 2 1 1247 SW 8 8917 P 12/05-23 99 32 15 72 W 2 2 2 1 W68 1536 SW 8 10441 P 12/06-00 99 32 15 67 SW 2 1 1754 SW 7 11089 P 12/06-01 99 32 14 64 S 2 1 1971 SW 7 11738 P 12/06-02 99 32 14 60 SE 2 2 2 1 SW67 2188 SW 7 12386 P 12/06-03 99 32 13 61 SE 2 1 2490 SW 8 17220 P 12/06-04 99 32 14 60 E 3 1 2791 SW 9 22053 P 12/06-05 96 62 14 61 E 3 3 2 1 SW59 3093 SW 10 26886 P 12/06-06 96 62 13 64 E 5 1 3439 SW 9 29091 P 12/06-07 96 62 13 62 E 5 1 3784 SW 9 31296 P 12/06-08 96 62 13 59 E 6 6 2 1 W54 4130 SW 9 33502 P 12/06-09 96 62 14 60 E 7 1 4448 SW 9 35173 P 12/06-10 96 62 15 59 E 8 1 4766 SW 9 36844 P 12/06-11 96 62 16 61 E 9 9 2 1 W51 5084 SW 9 38516 P 12/06-12 96 62 16 63 E 9 1 5105 SW 10 45694 F 12/06-13 96 62 18 60 E 9 1 5126 SW 12 52873 F 12/06-14 96 62 17 63 E 8 8 2 1 W49 5147 SW 14 60051 G 12/06-15 96 62 16 70 E 8 1 4893 SW 14 56376 F 12/06-16 96 62 14 80 E 7 1 4638 SW 13 52702 F 12/06-17 96 54 12 97 E 7 7 2 W52 4384 SW 13 49027 F KEY: FORECAST - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/ VALID AT SC - SKY COVER /PERCENT/ PP - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION /PERCENT/ TF - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/ RH - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/ 20FT WIND - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/ GST - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/ HI - HAINES INDEX LAL - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL 10K WIND - 10000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/ MIXG HGT - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/ TRAN WIND - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/ VENTL RATE - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/ AJTV RATNG - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING P - POOR F - FAIR G - GOOD V - VERY GOOD E - EXCELLENT $$ FORECASTER...WFO BOULDER REQUESTED BY...BOULDER COUNTY SHERIFF S OFFICE REASON FOR REQUEST...PRESCRIBED .TAG 20091204.REYNO.01/BOU